| 代码 | 简称 | | 涨跌幅% ↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 123241.SZ | 欧通转债 | 592.86 | 15.15 | | 123260.SZ | 卓镁转债 | 173.854 | 10.52 | | 113667.SH | 春23转债 | 180.939 | 7.18 | | 118048.SH | 利扬转债 | 212.401 | 6.10 | | 123203.SZ | 明电转02 | 144.147 | 5.68 | | 113687.SH | 振华转债 | 411.396 | 4.68 | | 123222.SZ | 博俊转债 | 210.835 | 4.58 | | 110096.SH | 豫光转债 | 182.7 | 3.80 | | 代码 | 简称 | 最新 | 涨跌幅% ↑ | | 113695.SH | 华辰转债 | 160.878 | -7.84 | | 113575.SH | 东时转债 | 249.85 | -3.12 | | 123117.SZ | 健帆转债 | 118.552 | -1.66 | | 123234.SZ | 中能 ...

Core Points - The company, 欧陆通, announced a temporary suspension of the conversion of its convertible bonds due to the implementation of the 2025 semi-annual equity distribution [2] - The suspension period for the convertible bonds (code: 123241; abbreviation: 欧通转债) will last from September 29, 2025, until the equity registration date on October 16, 2025 [2] - The conversion of the bonds will resume on the first trading day after the equity registration date, which is October 17, 2025 [2]

Core Points - The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index opened at 487.44 points, experiencing a decline of 0.08% [1] - The largest declines were seen in the following convertible bonds: Yuguang Convertible Bond (-4.13%), Enjie Convertible Bond (-2.53%), Outong Convertible Bond (-2.36%), Liyang Convertible Bond (-2.36%), and Lushan Convertible Bond (-2.24%) [1] - Conversely, the top gainers included Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (+20.00%), Limin Convertible Bond (+5.64%), Lizhong Convertible Bond (+3.80%), Zhongchen Convertible Bond (+1.62%), and Sheng24 Convertible Bond (+1.56%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its convertible bonds, "Ou Tong Convertible Bonds," will be suspended for conversion from September 29, 2025, until the registration date for the semi-annual equity distribution, after which conversion will resume on the first trading day following the registration date [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Convertible Bonds Suspension**: The suspension period for the conversion of "Ou Tong Convertible Bonds" is set from September 29, 2025, until the semi-annual equity distribution registration date in 2025 [1] - **Resumption of Conversion**: Conversion of the bonds will resume on the first trading day after the semi-annual equity distribution registration date [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses recent developments in convertible bonds, including proposals for adjustments and shareholder actions [1][2][4][6] - Zhengchuan Convertible Bond has proposed a downward adjustment [1][2] - Outoong Convertible Bond will not be forcibly redeemed [1][2] - Haibo Heavy Industry plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% of repurchased shares [1] - Guanzhong Ecology is planning a change in control and has suspended trading [1] - Ruifeng High Materials' shareholders intend to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.96% [1] Group 2 - A table lists various convertible bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] - For example, the current price of Jiaojian Convertible Bond is 162.161, with a redemption price of 100.044, and a conversion value of 162.90 [4] - The remaining scale of Jinxian Convertible Bond is 0.145 billion, with a market value ratio of 0.39% [4] - The current price of Dongjie Convertible Bond is 261.820, with a conversion value of 265.84 and a remaining scale of 0.731 billion [4]

Core Points - The company announced that its stock has met the conditions for the conditional redemption of the "Outong Convertible Bonds" from September 1 to September 19, 2025, where the closing price was at least 130% of the conversion price for at least 15 out of 30 consecutive trading days [1] - The board of directors decided not to exercise the early redemption rights for the "Outong Convertible Bonds" during this period and will not redeem them early [1] - If the conditional redemption criteria are triggered again from September 20 to December 19, 2025, the company will also refrain from exercising the early redemption rights [1] - The board will reconvene after December 19, 2025, to decide on the early redemption rights if the conditions are met again [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.23% on September 11, closing at 480.25 points, indicating a positive trend in the convertible bond market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The top performers in the convertible bond market included Fushi Convertible Bond, which increased by 20.00%, and Jing 23 Convertible Bond, also rising by 20.00% [1] - Other notable gains were seen in Jiaze Convertible Bond, which rose by 17.69%, and Outong Convertible Bond, which increased by 11.67% [1] - Conversely, Titan Convertible Bond experienced a decline of 2.69%, while Huicheng Convertible Bond fell by 2.04%, and Limin Convertible Bond decreased by 1.17% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market, which had shown strong performance earlier in the year, has recently entered a phase of continuous adjustment, with over 90% of convertible bonds experiencing declines in the last seven trading days [1][2]. Market Performance - Since reaching a peak on August 25, the convertible bond market has seen a downturn, with the China Convertible Bond Index entering a correction phase starting August 26, including a significant drop of 2.82% on August 27 [1][2]. - In the last seven trading days, more than 400 convertible bonds have declined, representing over 90% of the total, with nearly 230 bonds falling more than 5% and over 50 bonds dropping more than 10% [2][3]. Specific Bond Performance - Notable convertible bonds such as Tianyuan Convertible Bond have seen a price drop from over 240 yuan to 191.700 yuan, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% [3]. - The Borui Convertible Bond has also faced a decline, dropping from over 320 yuan to 260.457 yuan, with a cumulative decrease of 18.84% [5]. Market Influences - The recent adjustment in the convertible bond market is believed to be influenced by the weak performance of the underlying stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a slowdown, with a cumulative decline of 1.80% over the past seven trading days [7]. - The average decline of the underlying stocks corresponding to convertible bonds that fell over 10% is more than 10%, indicating a significant underperformance compared to the broader market [7][8]. Future Outlook - According to research from Guojin Securities, the overall probability of continued upward movement in the equity market remains high, but there is a short-term impulse for profit-taking in convertible bonds. The market is expected to experience increased trading activity and volatility [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has proposed a profit distribution plan for the first half of 2025, which includes a cash dividend distribution to shareholders based on the available profit as of June 30, 2025 [1][2][3]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.34 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling 46,796,541.29 yuan (including tax) to shareholders [2][3]. - The distribution is based on a total share count of 107,826,132 shares, excluding shares held in the company's repurchase account [2]. - The total distributable profit as of June 30, 2025, is reported to be 949,361,172.21 yuan for the consolidated financial statements and 724,134,350.09 yuan for the parent company [1]. Legality and Compliance - The profit distribution plan complies with relevant laws and regulations, including the Company Law of the People's Republic of China and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's guidelines [2][3]. - The plan is designed to ensure that the company maintains sufficient liquidity and does not affect its normal operational funding needs [2][3]. Approval Process - The profit distribution proposal has been approved by the company's board and supervisory committee and will be submitted for shareholder approval [1][3]. - The proposal considers the interests and reasonable demands of investors while ensuring the company's long-term development [3]. Additional Information - The company has implemented measures to control insider information and prevent insider trading related to this announcement [3].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Convertible Bond Valuation Model - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond Valuation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to compare the valuation of convertible bonds with their underlying stocks using a time-series comparable valuation metric called "100 Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" and the median of "Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM" to measure the relative allocation value between debt-biased convertible bonds and credit bonds[4][5][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **100 Yuan Conversion Premium Rate**: Fit the relationship curve between the conversion premium rate and conversion value in the cross-sectional space at each time point, and substitute the conversion value = 100 into the fitting formula to obtain the "100 Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" - Formula: $$ y_{i}=\alpha_{0}+\,\alpha_{1}\cdot\,{\frac{1}{x_{i}}}+\epsilon_{i} $$ where \( y_{i} \) is the conversion premium rate of the i-th convertible bond, and \( x_{i} \) is the conversion value of the i-th convertible bond[43] - **Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM**: Adjust the YTM of debt-biased convertible bonds by stripping out the impact of conversion terms - Formula: $$ \text{Adjusted YTM} = \text{Convertible Bond YTM} \times (1 - \text{Conversion Probability}) + \text{Expected Conversion Annualized Yield} \times \text{Conversion Probability} $$ The conversion probability is calculated using the BS model, substituting the closing price of the underlying stock, option exercise price, stock volatility, remaining term, and discount rate to calculate the conversion probability \( N(d2) \)[44] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to evaluate the relative allocation value of convertible bonds compared to their underlying stocks and credit bonds[15] Model 2: Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor - **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines the deviation of the conversion premium rate and the theoretical value deviation (Monte Carlo model) to construct a comprehensive valuation factor for convertible bonds[6][19] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Conversion Premium Rate Deviation**: - Formula: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Rate Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium Rate} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium Rate} $$ - **Theoretical Value Deviation (Monte Carlo Model)**: - Formula: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ The Monte Carlo model fully considers the conversion, redemption, downward revision, and repurchase terms of convertible bonds, simulating 10,000 paths at each time point and using the same credit term interest rate as the discount rate to calculate the theoretical value of the convertible bond[20] - **Comprehensive Valuation Factor**: - Formula: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank}(\text{Conversion Premium Rate Deviation}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Theoretical Value Deviation (Monte Carlo Model)}) $$ - **Model Evaluation**: The comprehensive valuation factor performs well in the overall, balanced, and debt-biased convertible bonds, while the theoretical value deviation (Monte Carlo model) performs better in equity-biased convertible bonds[19][20] Model 3: Convertible Bond Style Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses convertible bond momentum and volatility deviation as market sentiment capture indicators to construct a convertible bond style rotation portfolio, with bi-weekly rebalancing[7][26] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Market Sentiment Capture Indicators**: - Formula: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Style Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank}(\text{Convertible Bond 20-Day Momentum}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Volatility Deviation}) $$ - **Style Rotation Position Calculation**: - Example Calculation: | | Convertible Bond Equity-Biased Low Valuation | Convertible Bond Balanced Low Valuation | Convertible Bond Debt-Biased Low Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equal Weight Index | 1 | 2 | 3 | | Volatility Deviation Ranking | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Market Sentiment Capture Indicator | 3 | 3 | 6 | | Style Rotation Position | 50% | 50% | 0% | - **Model Evaluation**: The style rotation model effectively captures market sentiment and allocates positions accordingly, showing superior performance compared to the equal-weight index[26][27][28] Model Backtesting Results Convertible Bond Valuation Model - **100 Yuan Conversion Premium Rate**: Rolling three-year percentile at 98.70%, rolling five-year percentile at 94.90%[4][15] - **Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM**: Current median at -2.36%[5][15] Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor - **Equity-Biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index**: - Annualized Return: 26.10% - Annualized Volatility: 20.55% - Maximum Drawdown: -22.94% - IR: 1.27 - Calmar Ratio: 1.14 - Monthly Win Rate: 62.22%[23] - **Balanced Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index**: - Annualized Return: 14.80% - Annualized Volatility: 11.82% - Maximum Drawdown: -15.95% - IR: 1.25 - Calmar Ratio: 0.93 - Monthly Win Rate: 62.22%[23] - **Debt-Biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index**: - Annualized Return: 13.37% - Annualized Volatility: 9.43% - Maximum Drawdown: -17.78% - IR: 1.42 - Calmar Ratio: 0.75 - Monthly Win Rate: 57.78%[23] Convertible Bond Style Rotation Model - **Convertible Bond Style Rotation**: - Annualized Return: 25.27% - Annualized Volatility: 16.68% - Maximum Drawdown: -15.89% - IR: 1.51 - Calmar Ratio: 1.59 - Monthly Win Rate: 65.56%[32] - **Convertible Bond Low Valuation Equal Weight Index**: - Annualized Return: 14.71% - Annualized Volatility: 10.97% - Maximum Drawdown: -15.48% - IR: 1.34 - Calmar Ratio: 0.95 - Monthly Win Rate: 61.11%[32] - **Convertible Bond Equal Weight Index**: - Annualized Return: 9.75% - Annualized Volatility: 11.66% - Maximum Drawdown: -20.60% - IR: 0.84 - Calmar Ratio: 0.47 - Monthly Win Rate: 60.00%[32]