Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting revenue between 2.57-2.60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%-31.9%, and a net profit of approximately 0.665-0.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%-37% [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The main drivers of performance growth include the company's commitment to creating value for consumers and the increasing brand recognition of Mao Geping as a high-end brand, which is translating into long-term business growth [1] - The company anticipates continued rapid growth in its base makeup, color cosmetics, and skincare categories, while the perfume category is expected to provide new growth opportunities in the long term [1] Group 2: Online Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mao Geping's GMV on Douyin reached 0.787 billion yuan, up 50% year-on-year, while GMV on Taobao was 0.502 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year, and GMV on JD.com was 0.149 billion yuan, up 77% year-on-year, leading to a total GMV of approximately 1.44 billion yuan across three platforms, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - The color cosmetics segment, including products like powder foundation and cushion foundation, continues to show strong growth, while skincare products such as caviar masks and black creams are leading growth in that category [1] Group 3: Offline Expansion - The company is steadily expanding its presence in high-end shopping malls, having successfully entered locations such as Beijing SKP and upgraded its flagship store in Hangzhou, enhancing the brand's momentum in the high-end domestic market [2] - The company is also expanding its stores in second-tier and lower-tier cities, with single-store productivity showing improvement since March, indicating potential for further enhancement in store efficiency [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.175 billion yuan, 1.533 billion yuan, and 1.917 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.40, 3.13, and 3.91 yuan [2] - Based on comparable companies' expectations, the company is assigned a target price of 127.89 HKD for 2026, reflecting a PE ratio of 38 times, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the declining trust and increasing complaints against Li Jiaqi, a prominent beauty influencer, during the "6.18" shopping festival, as consumers report price discrepancies and order issues [2][3][8]. Price Discrepancies - During the "6.18" pre-sale, a robot vacuum initially priced around 2900 yuan was sold for under 1500 yuan in Li Jiaqi's livestream, leading to a surge in orders [8]. - Consumers reported that several beauty products were priced higher than previous sales events, such as the Mao Ge Ping cushion foundation being 40 yuan more expensive than last year's Double Eleven [3][6]. - A comparison of prices for Maybelline eye and lip makeup removers showed a significant increase from 98.6 yuan in 2023 to 149.45 yuan in 2024, despite a reduction in product volume [4][6]. Consumer Complaints - Complaints related to Li Jiaqi have surged, with nearly 20,000 complaints filed on the Black Cat Complaints platform, primarily concerning product quality and service issues [8][10]. - Specific complaints include delayed shipments, order cancellations, and poor customer service, with consumers feeling misled by pricing strategies [10][12]. - The volume of complaints against Li Jiaqi is notably higher compared to other influencers, indicating a significant decline in consumer satisfaction [10][13]. Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the traditional appeal of influencers like Li Jiaqi is waning, as consumers become more discerning and critical of pricing and service quality [12][13]. - The shift in consumer sentiment reflects broader trends in the live-streaming e-commerce industry, where trust and perceived value are increasingly important [12][13].