Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting revenue between 2.57-2.60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%-31.9%, and a net profit of approximately 0.665-0.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%-37% [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The main drivers of performance growth include the company's commitment to creating value for consumers and the increasing brand recognition of Mao Geping as a high-end brand, which is translating into long-term business growth [1] - The company anticipates continued rapid growth in its base makeup, color cosmetics, and skincare categories, while the perfume category is expected to provide new growth opportunities in the long term [1] Group 2: Online Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mao Geping's GMV on Douyin reached 0.787 billion yuan, up 50% year-on-year, while GMV on Taobao was 0.502 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year, and GMV on JD.com was 0.149 billion yuan, up 77% year-on-year, leading to a total GMV of approximately 1.44 billion yuan across three platforms, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - The color cosmetics segment, including products like powder foundation and cushion foundation, continues to show strong growth, while skincare products such as caviar masks and black creams are leading growth in that category [1] Group 3: Offline Expansion - The company is steadily expanding its presence in high-end shopping malls, having successfully entered locations such as Beijing SKP and upgraded its flagship store in Hangzhou, enhancing the brand's momentum in the high-end domestic market [2] - The company is also expanding its stores in second-tier and lower-tier cities, with single-store productivity showing improvement since March, indicating potential for further enhancement in store efficiency [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.175 billion yuan, 1.533 billion yuan, and 1.917 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.40, 3.13, and 3.91 yuan [2] - Based on comparable companies' expectations, the company is assigned a target price of 127.89 HKD for 2026, reflecting a PE ratio of 38 times, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 127.89 HKD [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 25.7-26.0 billion RMB in 25H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%-31.9%, and a net profit of approximately 6.65-6.75 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%-37% [1]. - The growth is attributed to the company's commitment to creating value for consumers and the increasing recognition of its brand as a high-end product, which is driving long-term business growth [1]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its foundation makeup, color cosmetics, and skincare categories, while the fragrance category is expected to provide new growth opportunities in the long term [1]. Online Performance - In 1H25, the company's GMV on Douyin reached 7.87 billion RMB, up 50% year-on-year, while GMV on Taobao and JD.com increased by 44% and 77% respectively, leading to a total GMV of approximately 14.4 billion RMB, also up 50% year-on-year [2]. - The strong growth in the color cosmetics segment, particularly in products like powder and cushion foundations, is helping the brand expand its market presence [2]. Offline Expansion - The company continues to expand its presence in high-end shopping malls, successfully entering locations such as Beijing SKP and upgrading its flagship store in Hangzhou [3]. - The company is also steadily expanding its stores in second and third-tier cities, with improvements in single-store efficiency noted since March [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.75 billion RMB, 15.33 billion RMB, and 19.17 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.40, 3.13, and 3.91 RMB [4]. - The report assigns a PE ratio of 38 times for 2026, maintaining the target price at 127.89 HKD, which reflects the company's strong product potential and sustained revenue growth across both online and offline channels [4].