Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The transportation sector is expected to see a long-term improvement in demand, driven by strong travel intentions during holidays and a significant increase in passenger flow [1][2] - The recovery in air travel demand is evident, with domestic passenger volume showing resilience and international flight numbers increasing significantly [2][3] - The supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a low rate due to manufacturing constraints, which will limit capacity expansion in the aviation sector [2] - The decline in oil prices is beneficial for airline profitability, and ongoing regulatory measures against excessive competition are anticipated to support ticket price recovery [3] Summary by Sections Passenger Flow and Travel Intentions - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period is projected to see a record 2.432 billion people traveling, with a daily average increase of 6.2% year-on-year [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 19.138 million during this period, with daily averages showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% compared to 2024 and 26.9% compared to 2019 [1] Flight Operations and Capacity - As of October 14, 2025, the daily average of civil aviation flights is 15,539, a 3.73% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - The average seat occupancy rates for major airlines have improved, with September 2025 showing an average of 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [1][3] Pricing Trends - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in September 2025 was 697 RMB, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1] - During the holiday period, the average ticket price was 849 RMB, reflecting a slight increase compared to 2019 [1] Supply Constraints - Global aircraft deliveries are expected to remain constrained, with Boeing and Airbus projected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft respectively in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 34.1% and an increase of 4.2% [2] - The introduction of the C919 domestic aircraft and the aging fleet will further limit capacity expansion in the aviation sector [2] Profitability and Policy Impact - The reduction in jet fuel costs due to falling oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability [3] - The "anti-involution" policy in the civil aviation sector aims to stabilize ticket prices and improve overall market conditions [3]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 白新鑫 " 赛里木湖都没去过，白活了！ " 央视主持人撒贝宁的一句话点燃暑期新疆游热潮，成为 2025 年民航暑运火热的生动缩影。 根据航班管家测算，2025年暑运前半段（7月份）民航执飞客运航班总量达52.4万班次，日均达1.69万班次，同比增长3.5%，其中国内航班增长2.2%、国际 航班增长14.1%；从日趋势上观察，单日最高超1.75万班次，最低1.55万班次，明显的波谷主要受极端天气台风、雷雨等影响，部分航班取消所致。7月份民 航整体旅客运输量预计达7120万人次（仅含境内航司承运量），创历史新高，环比增长16.3%，同比增长3.0%（其中国内增长2.0%、国际增长13.1%）。 7月，国内航司承运人共39家（幸福航空停飞，重庆航数据计入南航），同比来看部分航司航班波动大，共有28家航司航班同比正增长，其中春秋、天航、 华夏等航司增幅超10%，三大航增幅在2%-4%不等；11家航司航班同比负增长，其中深航、吉祥航、青岛航等航司降幅较大。 暑运过半，作为一年中最 " 赚钱 " 的两大时间段之一，今年暑运民航 " 上半场 " 的 " 成绩 " 如何？ 7月份民航旅客运输量7120 ...