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权益基金月度观察(2025/11):价值风格占优,持仓逐渐多元-20251108
Huafu Securities· 2025-11-08 14:13
- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds' performance. The model uses 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. A univariate linear regression is conducted for each index, and the rolling window regression is applied with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the performance reference index. The corresponding regression equation result is used as the performance outcome [16][17] - The report evaluates the overall strategy of public equity funds by analyzing the goodness-of-fit (R²) of funds relative to single indices. In October 2025, the average R² value was 0.7357, with 4.73% of funds exceeding 0.9 and 34.44% below 0.7. This indicates a loss of market concentration and a trend toward diversified holdings among public funds [35] - The report categorizes equity funds into five styles: large-cap, mid-small-cap, value, growth, and sector themes. In October 2025, value funds performed the best with a median return of 3.7%, while growth funds showed the most significant polarization, with the best return at 8.2% and the worst at -10.5% [22][23] - The report highlights the performance of sector-themed funds, with cyclical funds achieving an average return of 3.1% in October 2025. Among cyclical funds, the best performer was the "Coal Equal Weight LOF" with a return of 9.9%. In the technology sector, the best performer was "Caitong Growth Preferred A," with a return of 13.6% [25][28] - The report identifies high-rated funds that demonstrate excellent performance, risk control, and investment strategy. For example, in the mid-small-cap category, "Huitianfu Balanced Selection Six-Month Holding" achieved a recent score of 10 with an R² of 0.74, while "Hongde Zhixuan Qiyuan A" scored 10 with an R² of 0.95 [55][56] - The report also tracks newly rated funds, defined as those receiving their first rating in the current month and managed by fund managers with less than three years of experience. In October 2025, seven such funds were identified, with most benchmarked against the CSI 500 index [61][63][64] - The report highlights funds with significant rating upgrades, reflecting improved performance and management optimization. For instance, "泉果思源三年持有 A" (Quanguo Siyuan Three-Year Holding A) was upgraded and benchmarked against the "New Energy Vehicle" index [65][66]