市场偏好：行业偏好上，有色金属、国防军工、家用电器获各类资金净流入规模较高。宽指ETF以净赎 回为主，其中上证50ETF赎回最多；行业ETF申赎参半，其中原材料ETF申购较多，军工ETF赎回较 多。净申购最高的为华夏中证A500ETF；净赎回最高的为华夏上证50ETF。 招商证券发布研报称，人民币升值趋势叠加历年岁末年初是外资布局A股跨年行情的窗口，短期来看， 外资有望阶段性净流入贡献增量资金，外资的流入比较有利于A股的大盘风格。从历史看，1月融资资 金往往在后半月转弱，保险资金多在年初净流入。整体来看，1月市场更可能呈现结构性增量资金流入 的格局，有望助力A股延续上行趋势，继续演绎春季攻势，风格层面推荐大盘风格。 海外变化：美国三季度GDP超市场预期，12月ISM制造业指数回落至47.9。美国三季度GDP同比增长 4.3%，超出市场预期，主要由居民消费及人工智能相关基础设施投资拉动，经济短期韧性仍在。外贸 对增长形成一定支撑，但企业投资增速较二季度明显放缓。与此同时，12月ISM制造业指数继续回落至 47.9，连续第10个月处于收缩区间，显示制造业需求偏弱。 招商证券主要观点如下： 历年1月各类资金变化特征 ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 春季行情在犹豫中启动 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 12-28 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 海外市场中，本周美股择时模型小幅转多，显示机构在市 场调整中开始积极增加仓位。宽基中道指和罗素 2000 相对 占优，我们认为市场宽度提升的概率较大。黄金短期增加 看多仓位。我们继续看好港股新年后的流动性转多行情， 周中的买盘也确认了这一点。 跨年前后，除公募主动权益仓位小幅下降外，包括银行理 财、保险、信托等机构投资者跨年布局的情绪较高。虽然 上证十一连阳或带来短期技术性调整，但保持高位震荡、 逢低布局 2026 年优势板块仍是我们的既定策略。A 股择时 模型中，波段模型延续翻多，自 11 月 14 日后首次转为较 高仓位；短线模型中中证 1000 延续看多，沪深 300 和中证 500 的看多信号结束。综合考量下建议继续维持较高仓 位，等待自然调整后再寻机进攻，慢牛继续。 资金面上，融资继续新高；机构情绪提振，穿透后配置电 子、电力设备、有色金 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, highlighting their weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance[1][16][17] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of different stock market styles, such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800, including their relative crowding and excess net value[2][60][71] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, with specific focus on PE_TTM and ERP metrics for various indices and sectors[3][41][49][51] - The report tracks the performance and crowding of different investment styles, such as momentum vs. reversal, and their relative excess returns[2][60][71] - The report provides insights into the impact of US bond yields on the performance of different stock market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and growth vs. dividend[3][82][84] - The report includes a detailed analysis of the main fund indices, including their absolute and relative returns, and tracks the scale of public funds and their impact on the market[3][88][90][94] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including the performance of various commodity indices in China and the US[3][123][125]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a technical expansion of the balance sheet to prevent liquidity risks, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [1][11] - The central economic work conference in China has set a tone for moderate expansion, focusing on high-quality development and detailed policies in fiscal, monetary, domestic demand, real estate, and industrial policies, including necessary fiscal deficits and interest rate cuts [1][11] Group 2: Market Performance and Strategies - In the bond market, yields have slightly decreased during the week of December 8-12, with concerns about the ability to absorb long-term bonds and expectations of rising prices affecting market sentiment [1][11] - A-shares are experiencing weak corporate earnings and negative liquidity and risk appetite, suggesting that a rebound may take time [2][12] - The Hong Kong stock market may face volatility due to the FOMC's easing expectations and weak employment conditions [2][12] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Global oil demand remains weak, with ongoing supply releases and inventory accumulation putting pressure on prices [3][13] - Following the FOMC's actions, gold may experience short-term volatility but is expected to have a positive long-term development trend [3][13]

Group 1 - Market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 1.35 as of December 12, down from 2.4 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading volume in the market increased significantly, with total trading volume for the week rising by 15.14% compared to the previous week, averaging 19,530.44 billion yuan per day, with a peak of 21,190.10 billion yuan on December 12 [14][16] - The industry score model indicates that sectors such as non-bank financials, communication, defense, and automotive are showing upward trends in short-term scores, with communication having the highest short-term score of 77.97 [40][41] Group 2 - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with a coefficient of 0.33, indicating that sectors with high congestion like communication and defense are leading in gains, while sectors with low congestion like steel and environmental protection are lagging [45][46] - The current model suggests a preference for large-cap and growth styles, with signals indicating that growth style may strengthen further in the future [40][51] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in risk appetite [26][28]

【大河财立方消息】中央经济工作会议对资本市场有何指引？12月11日，招商证券发布研报称，基于中央经济工作会议对明年的 政策定调及各项经济工作安排部署，认为中央经济工作会议对A股明年的投资指引主要包括以下几个方面： （1）从宏观层面来看，政策整体延续了相对积极的政策基调。具体来看，财政政策取向积极，赤字率安排或维持在4%；货币政策 提到了，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"意味着，在多项货币政策目标中，促进经济发展、物价回 升的优先级较高。明年A股有望继续迎来相对宽松的政策环境。 （2）从产业视角来看，重点关注"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排：本次会议肯定了当前投资增速面临下滑的问题， 部署推动投资止跌回稳。明年是十五五的开局之年，在这样的背景下，重大项目有望成为投资端的主要抓手，建议重点关注重大 项目相关预期。 （3）消费端方面，会议重视了经济中需求相对供给较弱的问题，并提及将制定实施城乡居民增收计划，是积极的信号。但值得注 意的是，今年并未提到"加力扩围"，因此两新政策的资金支持力度可能难以迎来扩张。 （4）从过往市场表现经验来看，会后7天大盘风格往往相对占优。尤其是近5年 ...

1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《建议稿有哪些增量信息？ 可能带来哪些投资机会？—— — 政 策 专 题 （ 1028 ） 》 2025-10-28 12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，建议重点 关注四个方面内容。 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 08 日 如何理解 12 月政治局会议？对资本市场意味着什么？ 专题报告 相关报告 ——政策专题 策略研究 ❑ 第一，政策基 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance, with the CSI 300 index rising over 1% due to favorable conditions such as increased insurance capital entering the market and relaxed brokerage leverage ratios [1] - Historical data indicates that from December to January, the probability of large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks is significantly high, with December showing a 72.7% probability [1][2] Group 2 - The CSI 300 index, representing large-cap stocks, has a median market capitalization of 107.94 billion and an average market capitalization of 221.56 billion [3] - The index has seen a substantial increase in the weight of emerging industries, particularly in information technology sectors such as communications, electronics, and high-end manufacturing [3] - The main industry coverage of the CSI 300 index includes: Financials (23.0%), Information Technology (20.4%), Industrials (18.2%), Materials (9.2%), Consumer Staples (8.6%), Consumer Discretionary (7.3%), Healthcare (5.5%), Utilities (3.0%), Energy (2.6%), and Communication Services (1.8%) [3] Group 3 - The lowest management fee for the CSI 300 ETF in the market is 0.15% per year for the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [5]

Core Insights - The report suggests an overweight allocation to large-cap and value styles for December based on quantitative model signals and calendar effects [1][2]. Size and Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - The latest quantitative model signal for the end of November is -0.17, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks. Historically, large-cap stocks have outperformed in December, leading to a recommendation for an overweight allocation in December [1]. - The year-to-date return for the size rotation quantitative model is 24.71%, with an excess return of 1.5% compared to an equal-weight benchmark of 23.21% [1]. - The combined strategy, incorporating subjective views, has yielded a return of 26.1%, with an excess return of 2.89% [1]. Value and Growth Style Rotation Monthly Strategy - The monthly quantitative model signal is -0.33, indicating a preference for value stocks. Historically, value style has slightly outperformed in December, leading to a recommendation for an overweight allocation in December [2]. - The year-to-date return for the value-growth style rotation model is 20.37%, with an excess return of 2.99% compared to an equal-weight benchmark of 16.88% [2]. Style Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, dividend and quality factors showed high positive returns in November, while large-cap and momentum factors exhibited high negative returns [2]. - For the year, volatility and growth factors had high positive returns, while liquidity and large-cap factors had high negative returns [2]. - In November, residual volatility, short-term reversal, and earnings quality factors had high positive returns, while momentum, profitability, and large-cap factors had high negative returns [2]. Factor Covariance Matrix Update - The report updates the latest factor covariance matrix as of November 28, 2025, which is essential for predicting stock portfolio risks using a multi-factor model [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that incremental capital is expected to maintain a stable net inflow in December, with foreign capital activity likely to continue to rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Market Style Outlook - The market style is expected to focus on large-cap stocks, with a potential shift from growth to value [2]. - Historical data shows that large-cap styles have outperformed in December, influenced by policy expectations from key domestic meetings and the upcoming annual report preview window [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report suggests a "cross-cycle" approach, indicating that policy support may be more pronounced next year [2]. Group 2: External Factors - The likelihood of a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is high, which may lead to a peak in the US dollar index, reducing external liquidity's impact on the market compared to November [2]. - The demand for foreign capital is expected to increase due to the anticipated strength of the RMB, driven by year-end settlement needs and a peak in the dollar index [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Liquidity - December is projected to see stable net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital activity expected to rise [4]. - The monetary market's liquidity remained stable in November, supported by the central bank, and is likely to continue being reasonably ample in December [4]. - New equity fund issuance is expected to provide additional capital for sectors like AI and chips, with significant fundraising occurring in early December [2][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Preferences - Market risk appetite has fluctuated, with a shift towards defensive trading characteristics, favoring low-volatility sectors such as banking and textiles [5]. - Defensive sectors have performed well, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and automotive have seen declines [5].