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一周一刻钟,大事快评(W114):反内卷,继峰股份、福达股份,长城汽车更新
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-08 03:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [19]. Core Insights - The core insight revolves around the concept of "anti-involution," focusing on resolving supply-demand mismatches, with a shift in policy emphasis from demand stimulation to supply control. The approval for new production capacity is expected to become more challenging, and unique products that can stimulate potential demand are crucial for breaking the "price war" [3][4]. - Companies like Fuda Co., Ltd. and Jifeng Co., Ltd. are highlighted for their strong operational performance and growth potential, driven by expanding product lines and market demand [5][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Anti-Involution - The core of anti-involution is to address supply-demand mismatches, with future policies likely focusing on controlling supply rather than stimulating demand. The approval for new production capacity may become increasingly difficult, and there may be a need to activate idle existing capacity. Unique products that can stimulate demand, such as Xiaomi's YU7, are seen as key to breaking the cycle of price wars [3][4]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - Fuda Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve operational performance of 65 to 75 million yuan in Q2, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70% to 80%. The growth is primarily driven by the continuous ramp-up of BYD's crankshaft production and successful expansion into crankshaft business with companies like Seres and Chery. Additionally, the company is making strides in new business areas, with a significant contribution expected from the production of 10,000 sets of reverse planetary roller screws [5]. Jifeng Co., Ltd. - Jifeng Co., Ltd. is in a phase of continuous performance realization, with Q1 earnings around 100 million yuan and Q2 expected to grow to 120 to 130 million yuan. The growth is driven by domestic seat business, with significant contributions from models like Li Auto's L6 and NIO's ES6 and EC6. The company is positioned to capitalize on the domestic seat market, with substantial growth potential anticipated [7]. Great Wall Motors - Great Wall Motors is projected to have strong Q2 performance, with sales increasing by 56,000 units compared to Q1. The estimated net profit for Q2 is expected to rise from 1.7 billion yuan in Q1 to nearly 4.2 billion yuan. The company is also expected to benefit from various transformations in the second half of the year, including new vehicle launches and significant advancements in smart driving technology [8].