智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，受地缘冲突影响，市场对油气供应减少的担忧上升，导致油 价回升。而全球的油气资本开支正处于较低水平，存在向上恢复的空间。但是，考虑到油气项目的建设 周期较长，该行预计下游业主将更重视油气服务和装备企业的长期竞争力，因此该行看好具有高竞争力 的油服装备企业的投资机会。 东方证券主要观点如下： 地缘冲突的担忧增加，布伦特油价回升，有望提高油服景气度 由于油服项目的建设周期较长，因此业主公司往往需要观察油价的持续性。目前的地缘冲突担忧推升了 油价和市场的期待，但油服的景气度回升仍需要事件。该行预计从油价回升到油服景气传导至少需要半 年左右。考虑到下游公司对供应商的筛选会更加重视长期合作，因此该行认为高竞争力的企业更有望受 益复苏。 投资建议：部分相关标的：杰瑞股份、迪威尔、博迈科、海油工程、中密控股。 风险提示：地缘冲突缓解或供给波动导致油价下降、海外高利率拖累投资、海外贸易摩擦加剧影响投资 信心、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利。 全球油气开支活跃度仍在较低水平，向上有弹性 目前全球的油服景气度处于较低区间，比如全球活跃钻机数目前约1700-1800部，仍低于2019年以前水 平。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Concerns over geopolitical conflicts have increased, leading to a rise in Brent crude oil prices, which is expected to improve the oil service industry's outlook. Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela and increased military presence near Iran have contributed to these concerns. Additionally, severe weather in the U.S. has impacted refining output. As a result, Brent crude oil prices have shown a sustained increase, and if this trend continues, capital expenditures in the industry are expected to marginally improve, enhancing the oil service sector's outlook [9] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures remain at low levels, indicating potential for upward recovery. Currently, the global active rig count is approximately 1,700-1,800, still below pre-2019 levels. In China, capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector have contracted due to oil prices and the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expected year-on-year declines of 1.8% and 5.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. After several years of capital contraction, a recovery in industry expenditures is anticipated. Domestically, China's reliance on foreign oil and gas remains high, and a gradual recovery in capital expenditures is expected. Internationally, U.S. government policies are promoting oil and gas development, and the EIA predicts an increase in natural gas generation capacity in the coming years, suggesting a potential rebound in overseas oil service expenditure in 2026 [9] - The recovery in oil service sector sentiment takes time, emphasizing the importance of competitive companies. Due to the long construction cycles of oil service projects, owner companies often need to observe the sustainability of oil prices. Current geopolitical concerns have elevated oil prices and market expectations, but a recovery in oil service sentiment will require time. It is estimated that it will take at least six months for the positive effects of rising oil prices to be felt in the oil service sector. As downstream companies place greater emphasis on long-term partnerships with suppliers, companies with high competitiveness are expected to benefit more from the recovery [9]