饮料乳品 矿泉水消费理念转变下天然成分与产地溯源为核心关注点 全国化带来放量空间》2026-01-12 泉阳泉（600189.SH） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2026 年 01 月 27 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何长天 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 1,122 | 1,198 | 1,274 | 1,450 | 1,722 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | -12% | 7% | 6% | 14% | 19% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | -457 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 30 | | Email：hect@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | -900% | 101% | 137% | 40% | 47% | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company, as the first publicly listed mineral water company in China, is expected to benefit from national expansion, which will provide significant growth opportunities [6][68]. - The company has a strong strategic focus on its core business of natural mineral water, with plans to reduce losses in non-core segments [27][28]. - The mineral water industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company positioned to capture market share due to its unique water source and regional brand strength [60][66]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 1,122 million CNY, 2024A at 1,198 million CNY, 2025E at 1,274 million CNY, 2026E at 1,450 million CNY, and 2027E at 1,722 million CNY, with growth rates of -12%, 7%, 6%, 14%, and 19% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant turnaround from a loss of 457 million CNY in 2023A to a profit of 30 million CNY by 2027E, with growth rates of -900%, 101%, 137%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.64 CNY in 2023A to 0.04 CNY in 2027E [2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 5% market share in the national mineral water market, with a strong presence in the Northeast region, where it has a reputation for high-quality water [6][69]. - The mineral water market in China is characterized by high concentration, with the leading brand holding an 80% market share, while the company is the only one among the top five brands to achieve sales growth in the past year [60][63]. - The overall packaging water market is expected to reach 224.23 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output by 400,000 tons from its core water source and an additional 2 million tons from a secondary strategic source, potentially leading to a revenue increase of 2.633 billion CNY [6][68]. - A new logistics model combining rail, sea, and road transport is set to enhance cost efficiency and improve profit margins [6][28]. - The company is actively pursuing partnerships and collaborations to enhance its market reach, including significant contracts with major airlines and retail platforms [6][68].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Quan Yang Quan, announced a significant increase in its 2025 performance, projecting total revenue of 1.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.22 million yuan, an increase of 147.89% compared to the previous year [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected mineral water sales for 2025 are expected to reach 1.5034 million tons, a 33.84% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.022 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.68%, with a net profit of 24.67 million yuan, a 15.20% increase [7]. - Despite the projected net profit increase, the company anticipates a net loss of 9.45 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8]. Group 2: Business Challenges - The company has faced continuous losses in its non-recurring net profit for four consecutive years, with figures of -47.73 million yuan, -508.5 million yuan, and -719.41 million yuan for the years 2022 to 2024 [8]. - The imbalance in business structure is evident, as the mineral water segment's profitability is insufficient to cover losses from other sectors, particularly the landscaping and home furnishing businesses, which reported losses of 34.92 million yuan and 4.39 million yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [9]. - The company has not provided effective solutions for addressing the underperforming non-core business segments, focusing instead on minimizing losses [9]. Group 3: Market Environment - The bottled water market is highly competitive, with numerous brands entering the space, leading to price competition and pressure on margins [10]. - While the mineral water business has seen significant growth in regions like Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Beijing, there remains a need to develop the southern market and enhance brand recognition on a national level [10].

Core Insights - The global bottled water market emphasizes the importance of natural water sources, with brands leveraging unique geographical features to enhance their appeal [1][5] - In China, the demand for "healthy water" is rising, prompting domestic bottled water companies to focus on sourcing high-quality water from remote areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting from merely quenching thirst to prioritizing health and quality, leading to a structural transformation in the drinking water market [2] - The bottled water market in China is expected to continue growing, with increasing consumption levels and a focus on mineral-rich water [7] Group 2: Health and Nutrition - The intake of essential minerals from natural food sources is declining, making mineral-rich drinking water increasingly valuable for health [3] - Drinking water plays a crucial role in daily mineral intake, and maintaining beneficial minerals in water is essential for disease prevention [3][4] Group 3: Water Source Protection - The protection of water sources is critical, especially in areas like Changbai Mountain, where the quality of water is directly linked to geological conditions [5][6] - Sustainable development of natural water sources is necessary, with recommendations to limit extraction to 40%-50% of total capacity to preserve ecological balance [8] Group 4: Industry Competition - Numerous bottled water brands are establishing operations near Changbai Mountain, indicating a competitive landscape focused on high-quality water sourcing [5][6] - The market is transitioning from marketing-driven strategies to emphasizing the importance of water source quality [5][8]

Core Insights - The company, Quan Yang Quan, reported a revenue of 684,024,458.08 yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.91% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 23,468,689.72 yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 13.50% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025: 684,024,458.08 yuan, up 13.91% year-on-year [2] - Net profit for the same period: 23,468,689.72 yuan, up 13.50% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bottled water market is experiencing a price war, with brands like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Master Kong competing aggressively to bring prices back to around 1 yuan, while local favorites like "Jilin Divine Water" (Quanyuan Spring) are gaining popularity for their quality and low price [1][5][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bottled water industry is seeing a shift towards lower prices, with many brands offering products for less than 1 yuan [1]. - Jilin's Quanyuan Spring is marketed as a high-quality mineral water, priced at 1.5 yuan, which has led to a local pride and competition among consumers [5][18]. - The competition is not just about price but also about the perceived quality of water sources, with Quanyuan Spring claiming to have superior water quality standards [15][18]. Group 2: Consumer Perception - Consumers in Jilin have a strong attachment to Quanyuan Spring, often claiming it is the best water available, which reflects a cultural significance attached to local products [9][15]. - The water's taste is described as sweet and refreshing, contributing to its popularity among locals who have grown up drinking it [9][15]. - The perception of quality is further enhanced by the water's source from the Changbai Mountain region, which is considered one of the world's top water sources [16][18]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The logistics of transporting bottled water are challenging, with a "500-kilometer rule" indicating that water is typically not profitable to transport beyond this distance due to high costs [22][23]. - Quanyuan Spring's market is primarily concentrated in the Northeast region of China, with a 35% market share in Jilin, limiting its distribution [26]. - The industry faces issues with counterfeit products, particularly outside of Jilin, complicating the consumer's ability to access genuine Quanyuan Spring [5][22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Quality Standards - Quanyuan Spring adheres to higher quality standards than many competitors, using the GB/T20349 standard for natural mineral water, which is more stringent than the general GB 8537-2008 standard [15][18]. - The water source's geographical indication (GI) status adds to its prestige and marketability, making it a sought-after product [15][18]. - The importance of water source quality is emphasized, as it directly impacts pricing and consumer perception, with premium brands often linked to prestigious water sources [28][30].

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.0100 yuan for Q1 2025, a significant increase of 200% compared to -0.0100 yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 0.05 billion yuan, a remarkable turnaround from a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing an increase of 183.33% [1] - Operating revenue reached 3.07 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 31.76% from 2.33 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The return on equity improved to 0.42% in Q1 2025 from -0.48% in Q1 2024, marking a 187.5% increase [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 33,314.45 million shares, accounting for 46.6% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 105.41 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder is China Jilin Forest Industry Group Co., Ltd., holding 21,625.41 million shares, which is 30.24% of the total share capital [2] - New entrants among the top shareholders include Fu Chun and Wang Xiaoyu, holding 578.00 million shares and 295.00 million shares respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company has announced that it will not distribute dividends or transfer shares this time [3]