雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 本文来自微信公众号： 思想钢印 （ID：sxgy9999） ，作者：思想钢印，题图来自： 一、原油价格低是在剥削产油国 吗？ 假期里，照旧写一些离股市比较远的话题，今天聊聊价格内卷，很多国家都出现过部分产业或者全部 产业的产能过剩，本文用三个例子，油、水与奶，看看他们当初是怎么"卷价格"，又是怎么"反内 卷"的。 第一个案例是70年代以前的原油。 石油危机之前，国际市场的原油非常便宜，1970年美国平均零售油价，每加仑汽油约36美分，按通 胀折算到今天，大约等于每加仑2.5美元左右，也就是说，美国人在石油危机前加油的实际生活负 担，大概只是今天的一半甚至更低。 以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 1970年的大排量汽车非常畅销，因为油价太便宜了，到了1973年石油危机爆发后，油价仅仅涨了一 倍，就直接改写了美国人的购车习惯，从"肌肉车"转向小型车，再也没有改回来过，由此可以看出， 高油价对美国人生活的永久改变，或者换句话说，之前油价低得不合理。 1970年以前的低油价是如何形成的呢？ 石油最初只是用于照明，最典型的产品是煤油，是电灯出现前最主要的 ...

一、原油价格低是在剥削产油国吗？ 假期里，照旧写一些离股市比较远的话题，今天聊聊价格内卷，很多国家都出现过部分产业或者全部产 业的产能过剩，本文用三个例子，油、水与奶，看看他们当初是怎么"卷价格"，又是怎么"反内卷"的。 第一个案例是70年代以前的原油。 石油危机之前，国际市场的原油非常便宜，1970年美国平均零售油价，每加仑汽油约36美分，按通胀折 算到今天，大约等于每加仑2.5美元左右，也就是说，美国人在石油危机前加油的实际生活负担，大概 只是今天的一半甚至更低。 1970年的大排量汽车非常畅销，因为油价太便宜了，到了1973年石油危机爆发后，油价仅仅涨了一倍， 就直接改写了美国人的购车习惯，从"肌肉车"转向小型车，再也没有改回来过，由此可以看出，高油价 对美国人生活的永久改变，或者换句话说，之前油价低得不合理。 1970年以前的低油价是如何形成的呢？ 石油最初只是用于照明，最典型的产品是煤油，是电灯出现前最主要的燃料。人类正式进入石油时代是 从1967年开始，石油在一次能源消费结构中首次超过煤炭。 更重要的是，原油下游还诞生了一个庞大的石油化工行业，下游产品从汽油柴油到各种塑料、建材、农 药化肥、纺织品 ...

作者：顺安 随着瓶装水企业2025年上半年业绩报告的陆续发布，行业巨头们交出了一份份意味深长的成绩单：农夫 山泉凭借多品类战略高歌猛进，净利润同比增长超22%，茶饮料业务首次突破百亿元大关；而曾经的市 场霸主华润怡宝却遭遇"滑铁卢"，净利润同比暴跌28.7%，传统包装水业务收入同比下降超两成。 这场始于2024年的"价格战"正在演变为一场更深层次的"价值争夺战"。曾经依靠"1元水"打天下的时代 正在远去，取而代之的是水源地竞争、产品创新和渠道变革的全方位比拼。娃哈哈通过情感营销和渠道 改革实现强势回归，区域品牌润田谋划上市，就连新零售巨头胖东来、东方甄选也纷纷入局分羹。 随着消费端需求的变化，消费者不再满足于"解渴"的基本需求，他们关注水源品质、包装环保性、品牌 价值观，甚至产品的社交属性。瓶装水市场的竞争也从单纯的"价格战"转变为水源、品牌等多维度的竞 争。 中期业绩分化 瓶装水市场格局生变 近期，各大以瓶装水为主营业务的企业纷纷发布2025年上半年业绩报告，让外界得以窥见当下激烈的市 场竞争态势。 作为行业龙头之一的农夫山泉，今年上半年展现出了强势的增长势头。根据其披露的2025年上半年业绩 报告，上半年 ...

截至发稿，文科股份市值为26亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——农夫大战怡宝，抢到更多蛋糕的却是宗馥莉！农夫绿瓶上市后，怡宝上 演"滑铁卢"：市占率大跌近5个百分点 （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，文科股份（SZ 002775，收盘价：4.27元）9月29日晚间发布公告称，吴仲起先生因工作调 整，申请辞去公司董事、常务副总经理职务。 2025年1至6月份，文科股份的营业收入构成为：园林绿化占比73.53%，绿色能源占比18.06%，科教文 旅占比8.41%。 ...

截至发稿，天佑德酒市值为46亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——农夫大战怡宝，抢到更多蛋糕的却是宗馥莉！农夫绿瓶上市后，怡宝上 演"滑铁卢"：市占率大跌近5个百分点 每经AI快讯，天佑德酒（SZ 002646，收盘价：9.63元）9月29日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第二十二 次董事会临时会议于2025年9月27日在青海省互助县威远镇西大街6号公司七楼会议室以现场和通讯相结 合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于对外提供财务资助的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，天佑德酒的营业收入构成为：酒及酒精饮料业占比85.43%，电子商务平台业务占比 12.69%，其他业务占比1.53%，其他批发零售占比0.35%。 （记者 王晓波） ...

Group 1 - New Zhi Software (SH 688590) announced the convening of its 25th meeting of the fourth board of directors on September 29, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the revenue composition of New Zhi Software is as follows: insurance industry 36.49%, enterprise services 34.69%, banking and other financial sectors 25.14%, overseas business 3.57%, and other businesses 0.1% [1] - As of the report date, New Zhi Software has a market capitalization of 6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The competition between Farmer and Yibao has intensified, with Farmer's green bottle launch leading to a significant market share decline for Yibao, dropping nearly 5 percentage points [1]

Core Points - The "Walking Nanjing" public welfare event will officially launch on October 19, 2025, at the Zhonghua Gate, aiming to promote public fitness and showcase the cultural heritage of Nanjing's Ming City Wall [1][2] - The event features two routes: a 35-kilometer full challenge and a 3-kilometer fun short course, allowing participants to enjoy the unique landscapes of Nanjing [1] - This year, a creative design call has been issued for works themed around "walking," "city wall," and "plum blossom," encouraging community engagement [1] Company and Industry Insights - Nanjing Bank has been the title sponsor of the "Walking Nanjing" event for nine consecutive years, with all registration fees donated for the protection and restoration of the city wall [2] - The event has consistently attracted over 2,000 participants each year, highlighting its popularity and community involvement [2] - The organizers emphasize the importance of connecting citizens with history and promoting a green travel concept through this initiative [2]

Group 1 - China Evergrande announced its delisting on August 25, marking the end of its 16-year presence in the capital market [1] - The company has had profound lessons and impacts on the Chinese real estate industry, with its consumer segment, particularly Evergrande Spring, managing to escape the fallout [2] - Evergrande Spring became a notable marketing case in the fast-moving consumer goods sector after its debut during the AFC Champions League final 12 years ago [3] Group 2 - The ambitious sales targets for Evergrande Spring included reaching 10 billion yuan in sales by 2014 and 30 billion yuan by 2016, with a long-term goal of 15 million tons in sales over ten years [4] - Despite the initial hype, Evergrande Spring faced significant challenges, achieving only 1.09 billion yuan in sales in 2014, which was about 10% of its annual target, and incurring a loss of 2.37 billion yuan [11] - The company struggled with a high-end market positioning, as the bottled water sector was dominated by lower-priced products, leading to a price reduction in 2015 [16] Group 3 - Evergrande's consumer business, including Evergrande Spring, was sold off in 2016 for 2.7 billion yuan, with the bottled water business sold for 1.8 billion yuan [16] - After the sale, Evergrande Spring was rebranded under the control of the Cuilin Group, distancing itself from Evergrande [20] - The Cuilin Group, which took over Evergrande Spring, has diversified interests in various sectors, including bottled water and grain [21]

Core Viewpoint - The bottled water market is experiencing a price war, with brands like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and Master Kong competing aggressively to bring prices back to around 1 yuan, while local favorites like "Jilin Divine Water" (Quanyuan Spring) are gaining popularity for their quality and low price [1][5][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bottled water industry is seeing a shift towards lower prices, with many brands offering products for less than 1 yuan [1]. - Jilin's Quanyuan Spring is marketed as a high-quality mineral water, priced at 1.5 yuan, which has led to a local pride and competition among consumers [5][18]. - The competition is not just about price but also about the perceived quality of water sources, with Quanyuan Spring claiming to have superior water quality standards [15][18]. Group 2: Consumer Perception - Consumers in Jilin have a strong attachment to Quanyuan Spring, often claiming it is the best water available, which reflects a cultural significance attached to local products [9][15]. - The water's taste is described as sweet and refreshing, contributing to its popularity among locals who have grown up drinking it [9][15]. - The perception of quality is further enhanced by the water's source from the Changbai Mountain region, which is considered one of the world's top water sources [16][18]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The logistics of transporting bottled water are challenging, with a "500-kilometer rule" indicating that water is typically not profitable to transport beyond this distance due to high costs [22][23]. - Quanyuan Spring's market is primarily concentrated in the Northeast region of China, with a 35% market share in Jilin, limiting its distribution [26]. - The industry faces issues with counterfeit products, particularly outside of Jilin, complicating the consumer's ability to access genuine Quanyuan Spring [5][22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Quality Standards - Quanyuan Spring adheres to higher quality standards than many competitors, using the GB/T20349 standard for natural mineral water, which is more stringent than the general GB 8537-2008 standard [15][18]. - The water source's geographical indication (GI) status adds to its prestige and marketability, making it a sought-after product [15][18]. - The importance of water source quality is emphasized, as it directly impacts pricing and consumer perception, with premium brands often linked to prestigious water sources [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The bottled water industry is experiencing significant market share changes, with China Resources Beverage's "Yibao" and Nongfu Spring likely to benefit from these shifts [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Nongfu Spring's unsweetened tea products are showing strong growth, with an acceleration expected in July, despite a general decline in overall demand for unsweetened tea compared to last year [1] - China Resources Beverage's "Yibao" is positioned to gain from the market share changes in the bottled water sector [1] - Master Kong Holdings' recovery in the second half of the year will depend on its marketing investment levels [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall performance of liquid milk products is weak, indicating challenges within that segment of the beverage industry [1]