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巨子生物(2367.HK):短期业绩承压 回购彰显信心
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-04 11:56
Core Viewpoint - The company faced sales pressure during the "Double Eleven" period primarily due to underperformance in live streaming sales, reflecting both strategic channel adjustments and overall industry competition [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company's online GMV during the Double Eleven period declined approximately 30% year-on-year, with Tmall GMV down about 20% as the company opted out of aggressive price wars in top-tier live streaming [2] - Douyin GMV saw a significant decrease of around 50%, attributed to weak performance in live streaming, with a more than 50% reduction in the number of collaborations with influencers in October [2] - Despite the overall decline, the self-operated channels and mid-tier influencers showed resilience, indicating a solid brand presence and user loyalty [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The management is focusing on maintaining price stability and enhancing consumer experience, which is expected to lay a foundation for long-term growth and profit margin stability [2] - The company plans to launch several key new products in 2026, which are anticipated to drive a new growth phase [1][3] - The company has been approved to repurchase up to 104 million shares, representing 10% of its total share capital, reflecting confidence in long-term development [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company is actively cultivating a second product tier to optimize its product structure, with expectations for significant revenue growth from new products [3] - In 2026, the company will introduce four major new products across various series, aiming to reduce reliance on single blockbuster products and enhance brand resilience [3] - The medical beauty product line is set to expand, with the first injectable recombinant collagen product approved and planned for rapid market penetration in 2026 [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to -3.5% and 13.6%, respectively, reflecting short-term pressures [3] - The target price has been revised to HKD 53.89, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on a DCF model [3]