Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments and challenges faced by Juzhi Biotechnology, particularly focusing on its flagship product, collagen sticks, and the impact of a public controversy on its market performance and future strategies [2][3][10]. Product Development - Juzhi Biotechnology launched the upgraded collagen stick 2.0, which includes recombinant type IV collagen, aiming to enhance sales as the original version faced price decline risks [2]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in sales, projecting the gross merchandise volume (GMV) of collagen sticks could reach 30 billion [2]. Market Response and Controversy - Following allegations of product ingredient misrepresentation, the stock price of Juzhi Biotechnology fluctuated between 40-50 HKD per share, with mixed investor sentiments regarding its valuation [5]. - Despite the controversy, the market response was muted, with minimal media coverage and public discussion, indicating a lack of significant backlash [3][4]. Sales Performance - Recent sales data showed that Juzhi's brands achieved a combined GMV of 10.8 billion, with a slight overall increase, although one brand experienced a decline [6]. - The controversy led to a decrease in new customer acquisition during promotional events, with costs for acquiring new customers rising significantly [10]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to market conditions, Juzhi is adopting a cautious approach, controlling inventory levels and not heavily investing in promotional activities for upcoming sales events [17]. - The company is also focusing on building a membership system and expanding its presence in medical aesthetics through physical experience stores [17]. Regulatory Developments - Juzhi Biotechnology received approval for its class III medical device, recombinant type I collagen freeze-dried fibers, which is expected to enhance its product offerings in the medical aesthetics sector [20][24]. - The product is designed for facial dermal filling, addressing dynamic wrinkles, and has shown significant effectiveness in clinical trials [23]. Industry Outlook - The medical aesthetics market is becoming increasingly competitive, with multiple companies vying for market share, which may impact Juzhi's growth potential [25].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the first injectable recombinant collagen type I medical device by Juzi Biotech marks a significant breakthrough in the aesthetic medicine sector, indicating the start of a second growth curve for the company in this field [1][4]. Product Approval - On October 23, 2025, Juzi Biotech announced that its self-developed "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen Lyophilized Fiber" received the Class III medical device registration certificate from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA), with registration number 国械注准20253132049 [1][2]. - This product is the first approved drug-device combination in Juzi Biotech's Class III medical device pipeline, extending its business from functional skincare and Class II medical devices to the high-barrier Class III aesthetic injection devices [1][2]. Product Specifications and Efficacy - The product is a white or off-white sponge-like solid composed of recombinant Type I α1 collagen, with a total of 753 amino acids [2]. - It is indicated for facial dermal tissue filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, including forehead lines, glabellar lines, and crow's feet, showing efficacy rates of 94.7% for forehead lines and 97.2% for crow's feet in clinical trials [2]. Market Potential - The domestic market currently has 12 approved Class III collagen medical devices, with only four related to recombinant collagen, making Juzi's product the first recombinant Type I collagen Class III medical device approved [2][3]. - The collagen injection market is projected to reach approximately 9.8 billion by 2025, indicating significant growth potential for Juzi's recombinant Type I collagen, which is not in direct competition with existing products [3]. Future Pipeline and Growth Strategy - Juzi Biotech has additional products in the pipeline, including a "Recombinant Collagen Implant" that is currently under review, which may expedite approval following the recent success [4]. - Despite short-term stock price pressures due to initial sales fluctuations during the Double 11 shopping festival, the company is expected to gain momentum in the latter half of the event [4][6]. Sales Performance and Brand Strategy - In Q3, Juzi Biotech achieved a GMV of approximately 726 million, with significant growth rates across platforms like Tmall and JD, indicating a recovery in brand performance [4]. - The company has engaged in strategic partnerships with influencers to enhance brand visibility and sales during the Double 11 event, ranking 16th in Tmall's beauty category during the promotional period [4]. Management Confidence - The company's major shareholder has been actively increasing its stake, purchasing approximately 4.23 million shares for about 200 million HKD, which signals strong confidence in the company's long-term prospects [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][14]. Core Views - The approval of the company's first injectable recombinant collagen type I medical device marks a significant breakthrough in the aesthetic medicine sector, opening a new growth curve for the company [2][3]. - Despite short-term sales fluctuations due to market reactions to the Double 11 shopping festival, the company is expected to perform well in the latter half of the event, supported by its established offline medical institution channels and brand influence [2][14]. - The management's continuous share buybacks signal strong long-term confidence in the company's prospects [2][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company announced on October 23, 2025, that its self-developed "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen Freeze-Dried Fiber" received the Class III medical device registration certificate from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) [2][3]. - This product is the first approved drug-device combination in the company's Class III medical device pipeline, indicating a strategic expansion into the high-barrier aesthetic injection device market [3]. Product Details - The product is a white or off-white sponge-like solid composed of recombinant type I α1 collagen, with various specifications ranging from 10mg to 24mg per bottle [5]. - It is indicated for facial dermal tissue filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, including forehead lines, glabellar lines, and crow's feet [5]. Market Potential - The domestic market currently has 12 approved Class III collagen medical devices, with only four related to recombinant collagen, highlighting the uniqueness of the company's product [4]. - The collagen injection market is projected to reach approximately 9.8 billion by 2025, indicating significant growth potential for the company [7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.549 billion, 3.092 billion, and 3.673 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 10 [2][14]. - The management's share buybacks have increased their stake to 54.66%, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [13]. Competitive Landscape - The company's recombinant type I collagen differs from competitors' type III collagen, suggesting a non-direct competition scenario that could enhance its market position [7]. - The approval of additional products in the pipeline is anticipated to accelerate, further strengthening the company's market presence [8].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has experienced a decline of over 6%, currently trading at 39.8 HKD, with a transaction volume of 513 million HKD, following the approval of its medical device product, a recombinant type I α1 collagen lyophilized fiber [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Giant Bio's "recombinant type I α1 collagen lyophilized fiber" has received approval as a Class III medical device, marking it as China's first recombinant type I natural sequence collagen facial injection product [1] - Huatai Securities maintains its profit forecast for the company, projecting a net profit for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - CooBeauty's online sales performance during the first phase of the Double Eleven shopping festival has been relatively weak, with an estimated 10% year-on-year decline in online revenue for the second half of the year, leading to an overall online revenue growth rate of approximately 5% for the year [1] - In contrast, Collyre's online revenue is expected to achieve a high growth rate of about 40% for the year, while offline business is anticipated to maintain steady growth [1] - The revenue growth forecast for the company is expected to slow down to 12% by 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has experienced a decline of over 6%, currently trading at 39.8 HKD, with a transaction volume of 513 million HKD, following the approval of its medical device product [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Giant Bio's "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen Lyophilized Fiber" has received approval as a Class III medical device, marking it as China's first recombinant Type I natural sequence collagen facial injection product [1] - Huatai Securities maintains its profit forecast for Giant Bio, projecting a net profit for the parent company in 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Zheshang International reports that the online sales performance of Kefu Beauty during the first phase of the Double Eleven shopping festival was relatively weak, estimating a 10% year-on-year decline in online revenue for the second half of the year [1] - Keli Jin is expected to achieve approximately 40% high growth in annual online revenue, while offline business is projected to maintain steady growth [1] - The revenue growth forecast for the company is expected to slow down to 12% by 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on high-quality brands and innovative products [6][27] - The approval of the first recombinant type I collagen by Juzi Biotech opens new opportunities in the medical beauty sector, enhancing the company's product matrix [22][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption trends driving growth in various segments, particularly in jewelry and cosmetics [27][28] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail index closed at 2288.31 points, up 0.46% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.88% [5][12] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the overall market performance [12][15] - Among retail segments, the professional chain sector saw the highest weekly increase of 1.96%, while the jewelry sector led year-to-date with a 23.33% rise [14][17] Industry Dynamics - Juzi Biotech's recombinant type I collagen product received NMPA approval, marking a significant advancement in the medical beauty market [22][23] - The product is the first of its kind in China, aimed at facial dermal filling and wrinkle correction, indicating strong growth potential in the high-value collagen injection market [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry sector, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][27] - Emphasize retail companies that are actively transforming and exploring new strategies, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][27] - Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong performance during promotional events, recommending companies like Juzi Biotech, Pola, and Maogeping [28][30] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 maintains a "Buy" rating for 巨子生物 (02367) with a target price of HKD 58.35, despite a weak online sales performance for 可复美 during the first phase of Double Eleven sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 可复美's online revenue is estimated to decline by 10% year-on-year in 2H25, leading to an overall online revenue growth rate of approximately 5% for the year [1] - 可丽金 is expected to achieve a high growth rate of about 40% in online revenue for the year [1] - The company's revenue growth forecast for 2025 is expected to slow down to 12% [1] - The CAGR for 可复美's revenue growth from 2025E to 2027E has been revised down from 26% to 14.5% due to short-term pressures on online sales [1] Group 2: Product Development - 巨子生物's first injectable recombinant collagen product, recombinant type I α1 collagen lyophilized fiber, has been approved for use in facial dermal tissue filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, including frown lines, forehead lines, and crow's feet [1] - The approval marks the completion of the company's product matrix layout for aesthetic injections, post-surgical recovery (dressing), and functional skincare [1] - The company is progressing with the commercialization of injectable products [1] Group 3: Upcoming Products - The company has two additional injectable collagen products in the approval stage: 1. Injectable recombinant collagen filler for moderate to severe neck wrinkles, prioritized for medical device approval by December 2024 [2] 2. Recombinant collagen implant, submitted for registration as a drug-device combination by August 2025, currently under review [2] - The approval of these products will further enrich the company's aesthetic product matrix, covering a range of anti-aging scenarios from forehead to neck and improving skin texture [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Zhuhai International maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Bio (02367) with a target price of HKD 58.35, despite short-term pressures on online sales for Kefu Mei [1] - Kefu Mei's online sales performance during the first phase of Double Eleven was relatively weak, with an estimated year-on-year decline of 10% in online revenue for the second half of 2025, leading to an overall growth rate of approximately 5% for the year [1] - In contrast, Keli Jin is expected to achieve a high growth rate of about 40% in online revenue for the year, while offline business is projected to maintain steady growth [1] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its revenue growth forecast for Kefu Mei from a CAGR of 26% to 14.5% for the years 2025 to 2027 due to the anticipated short-term pressure on online sales [1] - Giant Bio's first injectable recombinant collagen product, recombinant type I α1 collagen lyophilized fiber, has been approved for market launch, aimed at facial dermal tissue filling to correct dynamic wrinkles, including frown lines, forehead lines, and crow's feet [1] - This approval signifies the completion of the company's full product matrix layout for aesthetic injections, post-surgical recovery dressings, and functional skincare [1] Group 3 - The company has two additional injectable collagen products currently in the approval stage: 1) Injectable recombinant collagen filler for moderate to severe neck wrinkles, prioritized for medical device approval by December 2024; 2) Recombinant collagen implant, with a registration application submitted in August 2025 as a drug-device combination, which has been accepted and is under review [2] - The approval of these products is expected to further enrich the company's aesthetic product matrix, covering a range of anti-aging scenarios from forehead to facial and neck areas, addressing dynamic wrinkle improvement to overall skin texture enhancement [2]

Macro Commentary - The core objective of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) emphasizes high-quality development, shifting focus from GDP growth to technological self-reliance and economic transformation [2][4] - Key strategic industries highlighted include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, advanced robotics, green energy, aerospace, and industrial software [2] - The plan aims to rebalance the economy towards consumption-driven growth, with increased investment in social services such as healthcare and elder care, benefiting sectors like consumer staples and healthcare [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,968, up 0.72% year-to-date performance is 29.45% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,922, with a year-to-date increase of 17.03% [2] - U.S. markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.27% and the S&P 500 up 0.49% [2][4] Company Analysis - **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**: The approval of its first injectable aesthetic product marks the beginning of a new growth phase for the company. The product is aimed at facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [5][6] - The company has a strong channel advantage due to its established network and brand recognition in the aesthetic market, which is expected to drive growth [5] - **Thermo Fisher (TMO US)**: Reported a strong 3Q25 performance with a revenue increase of 5.0% year-on-year and an adjusted EPS growth of 9.7%. The company raised its full-year guidance based on robust performance [6][7] - The demand from pharma and biotech clients is showing positive signs, with revenue growth driven by bioproduction and analytical instruments [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of pharmaceutical companies establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S., which will reflect in its performance by 2027-2028 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 85.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has received approval for its recombinant type I α1 collagen freeze-dried fiber, marking it as China's first recombinant type I natural sequence collagen facial injection product, primarily used for dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [1][6]. - The product is expected to potentially achieve sales exceeding RMB 1 billion in the medium to long term, with a favorable profit margin [6][10]. - The company is actively tracking its product strategy and market promotion pace, despite short-term stock price fluctuations due to market concerns regarding its cosmetic business performance [6][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 5,539 million (+57.17%) - 2025E: RMB 7,115 million (+28.45%) - 2026E: RMB 8,777 million (+23.37%) - 2027E: RMB 10,461 million (+19.18%) [5][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 2,062 million (+42.06%) - 2025E: RMB 2,600 million (+26.07%) - 2026E: RMB 3,203 million (+23.18%) - 2027E: RMB 3,812 million (+19.03%) [5][19]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned in a market with few leading players in injectable recombinant collagen, with competitors like Jinjibo focusing on recombinant type III humanized collagen products [7][10]. - The company’s product pipeline includes a recombinant collagen implant product that has been accepted for review, indicating potential for further expansion in the recombinant collagen medical device market [8][10]. Brand Performance - The company's brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, have shown recovery in Q3 2025, with online GMV reaching RMB 615 million and RMB 72 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20% and 17% [9][10]. - The company has also expanded its international presence, entering 13 Watsons stores in Singapore with multiple product lines [9][10].