巨子生物经20 余年深耕构建覆盖基因重组、细胞工程等的全链条技术平台，垂直纵深突破重组胶原蛋 白核心专利（含国际领先的低免疫技术及XVII 型、IV 型等核心专利），横向拓展5 种高纯度稀有人参 皂苷规模化生产。其研发体系以深耕发酵与生物材料的核心团队为基石，联动医研机构搭建国家地方联 合工程中心及博士后站，参与国标行标建设，筑牢技术与生态壁垒。 可复美多维产品矩阵持续发力，可丽金起量显著。（1）可复美"医疗器械+胶原修复+焦点系列+秩序系 列"产品矩阵协同发力，以胶原棒为大单品稳固市场，同时陆续新推焦点系列、帧域密修系列正稳步放 量，有望通过精准的人群定位与产品功效成为拉动增长的引擎。（2）可丽金强化专业抗老形象，加大 核心单品大膜王、嘭嘭次抛资源投放力度，胶卷系列新品为消费者提供更全面的分时分区抗老解决方 案，久谦数据显示7 月可复美天猫和抖音GMV 分别同比增长132%、32%。此外，公司稳步推进三类医 疗器械申报审批，有望打造第二成长曲线。 可复美7 月恢复达播后数据环比回暖，下半年销售逐步回升可期。可复美5.24舆情事件后受到一定影响 但整体可控，根据天猫大美妆618 期间可复美天猫排名排名16（2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in sales in the second half of the year, supported by a rebound in live streaming sales and a stable offline sales network [8] - The company has a strong foundation in recombinant collagen research, with a comprehensive technology platform and a focus on high-quality product offerings [8] - The multi-dimensional product matrix of the company is expected to drive growth, with significant sales increases observed in July [8] - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating favorable valuation [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 3,524 million RMB in 2023 to 10,206 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.17% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,452 million RMB in 2023 to 3,491 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.49 RMB in 2023 to 3.26 RMB in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5] Market Performance - The company's products have shown resilience in the market, with significant growth in online sales channels, particularly during promotional events [8] - The company maintains a strong presence in both online and offline sales channels, with positive consumer feedback on its core products [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape and market dynamics of the functional skincare industry in China, highlighting key players, market share, and industry concentration levels [1][9][11]. Group 1: Brand Ranking - The functional skincare market in China is segmented into three main categories: dermatological skincare, strong efficacy skincare, and medical aesthetic skincare, with leading brands in each category [1]. - Notable brands in dermatological skincare include Winona, La Roche-Posay, and Avene; strong efficacy brands include WIS and HFP; medical aesthetic brands include Fulejia and Aimeike [1]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Position - The functional skincare industry is divided into three tiers based on revenue: - Tier 1: Betaini with revenue exceeding 5 billion CNY, leading the market [3][12]. - Tier 2: Companies like Giant Biological, Shanghai Jahwa, and Fulejia, which have significant revenue and brand recognition [3]. - Tier 3: Companies such as Proya and Furuida, which are publicly listed but have lower revenue from functional skincare [4]. Group 3: Market Share - The projected market size for functional skincare in China for 2024 is approximately 48.743 billion CNY, with Betaini holding a market share of 11.71% [9]. - Other significant players include Huaxi Biological at 5.27%, Fulejia at 4.14%, Shanghai Jahwa at 2.15%, and Giant Biological at 2.44% [9]. Group 4: Market Concentration - The market concentration for domestic functional skincare brands is relatively low, with the top three companies accounting for 21.12% of revenue and the top six for 26.47% [11]. - There is a trend of increasing market concentration, with leading players establishing brand and research barriers [11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The industry shows a strong reliance on imported raw materials, with suppliers having significant bargaining power [16]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, and competition is intensifying, with high profit margins and potential threats from new entrants and alternative products [16].

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges limitations in its current testing methods for recombinant collagen products and outlines steps for improvement in response to industry and consumer demands [1][2]. Group 1: Company Response - The company has conducted a comprehensive self-inspection of its recombinant collagen raw materials and products, including production, testing, and labeling [1]. - It plans to collaborate with research institutions to optimize and validate qualitative and quantitative testing methods for recombinant collagen in cosmetics [1]. - The company will gradually disclose key technical parameters and quality control data for raw materials and finished products to enhance industry development and public oversight [1]. Group 2: Industry Standards and Practices - The company adheres to existing industry standards and has established its own quality control measures for raw materials and products [2]. - It is actively participating in the formulation of national and industry standards related to recombinant collagen in cosmetics to promote standardized development within the industry [1][2]. Group 3: Company Background and Market Performance - Founded in 2000, the company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022 and specializes in skin care products featuring recombinant collagen as a key active ingredient [2]. - The company's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, with a decline of 37.12% from its peak of 87.1 HKD per share on May 20, 2025, to June 23, 2025 [2]. - Following the recent announcement, the stock price rose by 6.74% to 54.65 HKD per share as of June 24, 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, Anta Sports, and others [1]. Core Insights - The new consumption theme is experiencing a resurgence, with the market increasingly focusing on risk/reward dynamics [4][5]. - Various sectors within discretionary consumption have shown different performance trends, with jewelry, gaming, and daily necessities outperforming the MSCI China index [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sectors are still undervalued compared to their historical averages over the past five years [17]. Sector Performance Overview - The jewelry sector saw a significant increase of 8.3%, driven by rising gold prices and strong sales growth from major players [5][14]. - The gaming sector also performed well, with notable increases in stock prices for Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, supported by robust gaming revenue growth in Macau [5][14]. - The snack sector rose by 2.9%, with specific companies benefiting from the new consumption trend [5][14]. - The cosmetics sector experienced a 1.8% increase, with strong growth reported on e-commerce platforms [5][14]. - Conversely, the overseas sportswear sector declined by 0.5%, reflecting concerns over the U.S. economic cycle and competitive pressures [5][14]. Valuation Analysis - The expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 indicate that most are below their five-year historical averages, suggesting potential for future growth [17]. - For instance, the overseas sportswear sector has a projected PE of 31.8, which is 51% of its historical average, while the domestic sportswear sector is at 13.0, or 75% of its historical average [17]. - The jewelry sector's expected PE is 27.9, representing 49% of its historical average, indicating a favorable valuation compared to past performance [17].

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong sales resilience despite recent challenges, with a significant recovery expected in online sales due to improved brand recognition and marketing efforts [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - In May and June, the combined GMV of the company's brands, 可复美 and 可丽金, reached 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with 可复美 declining by 2% and 可丽金 growing by 33% [1] - The strong sales performance in the first four months of 2025 led to a 38% year-on-year growth in GMV for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company is actively restoring live streaming frequency and increasing promotional efforts, which is expected to gradually revive sales [2] Group 2: Product Strength and R&D - The company is recognized as the first in China to scale the production of recombinant collagen skincare products, showcasing deep technical expertise in the collagen field [3] - R&D expenses have significantly increased from 11 million yuan in 2019 to 106 million yuan in 2024, with an R&D expense ratio of approximately 2% in 2024 [3] - Capital expenditures have risen from 75 million yuan in 2021 to 250 million yuan in 2024, indicating a commitment to expansion and innovation [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects online revenue for 可复美 and 可丽金 to grow by 10% and 35% respectively in the second half of 2025, with overall online revenue growth for 可复美 projected at 20% and 可丽金 at 60% for the year [3] - Offline sales, which account for 28% of the company's revenue, are anticipated to remain stable [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for Giant Bio (02367) has been reduced from HKD 79.96 to HKD 73.54, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 29 times for 2025, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Giant Bio's brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, achieved a combined GMV of approximately RMB 1.08 billion on Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin from May to June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The strong sales in the first four months led to a rapid year-on-year growth of 38% in GMV for the first half of 2025 [1] - Despite a temporary slowdown in online sales growth due to public sentiment, the sales performance in May and June demonstrates the company's strong sales resilience in extreme conditions [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to gradually recover its sales as it increases promotional efforts and restores broadcast frequency, supported by a rich product portfolio and a dual-brand strategy that enhances its risk resilience [1] - The company is the first in China to scale the production of recombinant collagen skincare products, possessing deep technical expertise in the collagen field, which is considered a cornerstone for sales recovery [1] - Conservative estimates suggest that in the second half of 2025, online revenues for Kefu Mei and Keli Jin will grow by 10% and 35% year-on-year, respectively, with overall revenue growth for 2025 projected to slow to 23% [2]

Industry Overview - The medical beauty injection materials industry in China has a limited number of publicly listed companies, primarily including Huaxi Biological, Haohai Biological, Aimeike, and Juzhi Biological, with most companies involved in the supply of upstream raw materials [1][7]. Company Summaries - Huaxi Biological is a global leader in hyaluronic acid, with a projected revenue of 53.71 billion yuan in 2024, and has expanded into collagen products through acquisitions [2][9]. - Haohai Biological has secured exclusive rights for domestic and international botulinum toxin products and is focusing on a dual product line of hyaluronic acid and botulinum toxin [6][15]. - Aimeike is expected to generate approximately 29.60 billion yuan in sales for its medical beauty injection materials in 2024, emphasizing high-end products [9][15]. - Juzhi Biological is projected to achieve sales of around 55.20 billion yuan in 2024, focusing on collagen products and leading the industry in standard-setting [9][15]. Sales and Production Data - Huaxi Biological has sold over 10 million units of its products, while Haohai Biological and Aimeike have sales around 7 million units each [13]. - Juzhi Biological's collagen products have a sales volume of approximately 55.20 billion yuan, indicating a strong market presence [11][13]. Business Strategies - Huaxi Biological is focusing on core technologies in glyco-biology and cell biology, aiming to enhance its position in the extracellular matrix and anti-aging sectors [15]. - Haohai Biological is pursuing international collaborations and technology imports to strengthen its product offerings and market competitiveness [15]. - Aimeike is developing a high-end product matrix centered on regenerative materials, with significant investments in training and technology [15]. - Juzhi Biological is leading the development of industry standards and expanding its product offerings in the collagen segment [15]. Regional Distribution - The majority of medical beauty injection material companies are concentrated in Shandong Province, with key players in raw material production and equipment manufacturing [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent controversy surrounding Juzhi Biotechnology (巨子生物) and its admission of limitations in quality standards and testing methods, which has raised further questions about the integrity of its products and the broader implications for the industry [2][4][10]. Group 1: Company Response and Market Impact - Juzhi Biotechnology acknowledged its limitations in quality standards and testing methods, marking a significant shift from its previous defensive stance against accusations regarding its collagen products [4][10]. - Following the controversy, Juzhi's stock price fell from 87.1 HKD to 53.9 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 330 billion HKD [10]. - The company's internal investor meeting indicated confidence in recovering from short-term impacts, despite the ongoing public skepticism [4][11]. Group 2: Industry Context and Competition - The controversy highlights a broader "ingredient war" between Juzhi Biotechnology and Huaxi Biotechnology (华熙生物), with both companies competing in the collagen and hyaluronic acid markets [14][15]. - Huaxi Biotechnology, a leader in the hyaluronic acid market, has criticized Juzhi's claims about collagen superiority, emphasizing the lack of scientific basis for such assertions [15][16]. - The article suggests that the current lack of unified testing standards in the collagen industry poses challenges for quality control and consumer trust [17][19]. Group 3: Consumer Trust and Market Dynamics - The incident has led to a decline in consumer trust, particularly among core users who prioritize ingredient efficacy, which could have long-term repercussions for Juzhi's brand reputation [12][13]. - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior towards more informed purchasing decisions, moving from concept-driven marketing to a focus on ingredient transparency and scientific validation [23][24]. - The controversy may catalyze regulatory changes and industry standards, potentially leading to a market reshuffle where companies lacking core R&D capabilities may struggle to survive [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant market performance for the week of June 23-27, 2025, with retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increasing by 4.56%, 4.61%, and 1.04% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.91% [14][17]. - Key events include the strategic investment of 3.4 billion yuan by Jianbo Biological into Yangshengtang, and the successful IPO of Yingtong Holdings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail, social services, and beauty care sectors ranked 9th, 8th, and 24th among 31 primary industries, with notable increases in sub-sectors such as education, professional chains, and trade, which rose by 7.47%, 7.42%, and 5.2% respectively [14][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In the beauty care sector, significant developments include the entry of Kefu Mei into Malaysia's Watsons, becoming the first Chinese efficacy skincare brand in the region, and the announcement by the National Medical Products Administration regarding the management of cosmetic raw materials [23][24]. - Jianbo Biological's restructuring of its collagen product to a medical device category and the successful listing of Yingtong Holdings are also noteworthy [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Ltd., Juzhi Biological, Marubi Biological, Runben Co., Ltd., Proya, Chaohongji, Blukoo, and Furuida as potential investment targets within the highlighted sectors [5][29].