巨子生物在收入增长方面表现如何？ 巨子生物 摘要 巨子生物依托重组胶原蛋白技术，通过可复美和可丽金等品牌在美妆赛 道实现差异化竞争，可复美保持快速增长，可丽金调整后重回增长轨道， 线上渠道表现强劲。 公司通过控制达播业务的毛销差，采用融合模式与达人合作，优化费用 结构，有效应对短期舆情事件，确保经营利润率不受大幅影响。 双十一期间，巨子生物稳定商品划线价，优惠成本主要由平台或达人承 担，公司选择性参与活动，并通过年框协议锁定与头部达人的合作条款， 确保费用端稳定。 公司线上收入占比高达 75%，并预计提升至 80%以上，主要采用 GTC 模式；线下渠道通过经销模式，早期布局医院端，扩展药店 SKU，孵化 新品牌"可遇"承接医院端向家庭消费场景外溢。 公司通过精准筛选达人、优化投流策略控制费销比，避免盲目合作头部 达人，提高转化效率，并主动控制头部达人的 GMV 占比，提升中腰部 达人的投放效率。 Q&A 巨子生物的核心竞争力是什么？ 巨子生物是国内最早研发并全球最早量产重组胶原蛋白的企业。公司以生产重 组胶原蛋白为核心技术，聚焦功能护肤品、医疗器械和功能性食品三大应用板 块。公司拥有全球最全面的胶原蛋白分子库 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.18 billion, up 20%, meeting market expectations [1] - Gross margin stood at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, while net profit margin was 38.0%, down 0.6 percentage points [1] - Revenue breakdown shows 82% from the brand "可复美" and 16% from "可丽金", with "可复美" generating 2.54 billion (up 23%) and "可丽金" 503 million (up 27%) [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding production capacity and global presence by adding new production lines for collagen, cosmetics, and medical devices, and constructing new factories for medical devices and health products [2] - A new regional headquarters has been established in Xiamen Free Trade Zone, which will serve as a business settlement center, manufacturing base, and cross-border trade platform [2] - The company is actively participating in major exhibitions and has made significant inroads into markets like Hong Kong and Malaysia, marking a breakthrough in overseas sales [2] Group 3: R&D and Supply Chain Management - The core R&D and management team remains stable, providing a solid foundation for the company's development [2] - The company is focusing on functional skincare and medical devices, with several new products in the R&D or registration phase, expected to launch in the first half of next year [2] - Supply chain management capabilities are being optimized through long-term partnerships with quality raw material suppliers and digital management of production, warehousing, and logistics [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the application of synthetic biology in the beauty and medical fields, with high technical barriers and increasing brand recognition [3] - Short-term performance is stabilizing, while long-term growth is supported by new product launches and deeper global expansion [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.502 billion, 3.008 billion, and 3.655 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 22.0, 18.3, and 15.1, respectively, with a target price of 69.04 HKD for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 69.04 HKD [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in its data, indicating stabilization in its performance. The growth momentum is expected to be strong due to new product launches and global expansion efforts [9]. - The company is a leader in the application of synthetic biology in the beauty and medical fields, with a high technical barrier and increasing brand recognition [9]. - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 6,907 million HKD in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [5][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 5,539 million HKD - 2025: 6,907 million HKD - 2026: 8,495 million HKD - 2027: 10,312 million HKD - Net profit projections are: - 2024: 2,062 million HKD - 2025: 2,502 million HKD - 2026: 3,008 million HKD - 2027: 3,655 million HKD - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.01 HKD in 2024 to 3.41 HKD in 2027 [5][10][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity and global footprint, including establishing a regional headquarters in Xiamen and participating in international trade shows [9]. - The core team remains stable, focusing on continuous product development, particularly in functional skincare and medical devices [9]. - Supply chain management is being optimized to enhance cost control and market responsiveness, ensuring stable growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the resilience of domestic brands and the impact of new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a robust recovery in H1 2025, with a retail sales growth of 2.9%, reversing the previous decline due to favorable consumption policies and improved income expectations [5][6]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with top local brands now competing closely with international counterparts, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [10][11]. - The report categorizes companies into three groups based on performance: those with strong brand matrices benefiting from multi-brand strategies, those capitalizing on consumer trends like domestic brands and collagen products, and those showing signs of strategic improvement [20][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beauty market is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted retail sales decline of 1.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery in H2 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic market share is expected to increase, with local brands achieving significant breakthroughs in both skincare and makeup segments [10][11]. Company Performance - **Cosmetics Sector**: - Major companies like Up Beauty and Proya reported revenue growth of 17.3% and 7.2% respectively in H1 2025, with net profits increasing by 30.6% and 13.8% [20][21]. - Other notable performers include Marubi and Water Sheep, with revenue growth of 30.8% and 9.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Personal Care Sector**: - Companies like Ruibin and Zhenjia showed remarkable growth, with Ruibin's revenue increasing by 67.6% and Zhenjia's by 157.11% in H1 2025 [5][20]. - **Medical Aesthetics Sector**: - Companies like Aimeike and Langzi reported mixed results, with Aimeike's revenue declining by 21.6% while Langzi's net profit surged by 64.1% [20][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong brand matrices and low PE multiples, such as Up Beauty and Proya, as well as those benefiting from the Douyin traffic boost like Marubi and Water Sheep [20][24]. - It also suggests focusing on high-value segments and innovative products from brands like Ruibin and Furuida, and highlights opportunities in the maternal and infant sector with companies like Shengbeila and Haiziwang [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Anta Sports, Gree Electric, and others [1]. Core Insights - The gambling sector continues to show strong performance in September, outperforming other discretionary sub-sectors, with a weekly increase of 1.8% [4][16]. - Domestic cosmetics and luxury goods also performed positively, with increases of 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, while other sectors like overseas sportswear and snacks faced declines [4][16]. - The report highlights that most sub-sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Performance Review - The gambling sector led the weekly performance with a 1.8% increase, followed by domestic cosmetics at 0.7% and luxury goods at 0.3%. In contrast, overseas sportswear and snacks saw declines of 3.0% and 4.1% respectively [4][16]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains in gold and jewelry, domestic cosmetics, and pets, with increases of 167.1%, 60.6%, and 38.8% respectively [13]. Sector Analysis - The gambling sector's strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected results during the off-season, with optimism for the upcoming peak season driven by events like the NBA and concerts [6][16]. - Domestic cosmetics are benefiting from successful marketing campaigns, with notable sales figures reported [6][17]. - The overseas sportswear sector is under pressure due to disappointing earnings forecasts and competition, leading to significant stock price declines [8][17]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are trading below their five-year average P/E ratios, indicating potential for growth. For instance, the expected P/E for the overseas sportswear sector is 33.4 times, which is 59% of its historical average [20]. - The gambling sector's expected P/E is 34.2 times, which is 40% of its historical average, suggesting it may be undervalued [20].

Group 1 - The National Cyberspace Administration of China announced the second batch of typical cases in the "Clear and Bright: Optimizing the Business Network Environment - Rectifying 'Black Mouths' Involved in Enterprises" campaign, which includes the beauty blogger "Dr. Big Mouth" [1] - "Dr. Big Mouth" has been accused of publishing misleading evaluation information that disrupts market competition, with multiple accounts linked to a beauty product company [1] - The blogger, whose real name is Hao Yu, has over 1.7 million followers on social media and claims to have 19 years of experience in cosmetics research and popular science [1] Group 2 - On May 24, "Dr. Big Mouth" publicly questioned the credibility of a product from Juzhi Biotechnology, claiming that the actual content of recombinant collagen in the product was only 0.0177% [1][2] - Juzhi Biotechnology responded by stating that their tests showed collagen content greater than 0.1%, contradicting the claims made by "Dr. Big Mouth" [2] - On June 1, Juzhi Biotechnology received an apology from the testing agency commissioned by "Dr. Big Mouth," which stated that it had not authorized the testing and demanded that he stop using the report [2] Group 3 - On June 5, "Dr. Big Mouth" released a video questioning the testing methods used by Juzhi Biotechnology, while his accounts faced bans and several videos were taken down [3] - On June 26, a social media platform announced measures to combat "black mouth" behavior, focusing on malicious defamation, extortion, and false marketing, leading to further sanctions against "Dr. Big Mouth" [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.11 billion HKD for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.18 billion HKD, up 20.2% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit reached 1.21 billion HKD, reflecting a 17.4% increase [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue breakdown by product categories showed medical dressings, functional skincare, and health food generating revenues of 690 million HKD, 2.41 billion HKD, and 10 million HKD respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 24%, and 16% [6]. - By brand, the revenues for 可复美, 可丽金, and other brands were 2.54 billion HKD, 500 million HKD, and 60 million HKD respectively, with growth rates of 23%, 27%, and -10% [6]. - Channel-wise, revenues from DTC, e-commerce direct sales, offline direct sales, and distribution were 1.82 billion HKD, 390 million HKD, 120 million HKD, and 790 million HKD respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 134%, 74%, and 12% [6]. Profitability - The net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.7 percentage points in H1 2025, attributed to a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin and changes in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [6]. - The overall expense ratio narrowed by 1.6 percentage points, while the income tax expense increased by approximately 87.06 million HKD year-on-year [6]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain healthy growth throughout the year, with projected adjusted net profits of 2.55 billion HKD, 3.00 billion HKD, and 3.65 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 23, 19, and 16 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulatory actions taken against the "Big Mouth Doctor" account for spreading misleading information about companies, particularly targeting Juzi Biological, which faced significant market backlash due to allegations of product falsification [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Actions - The National Internet Information Office announced the second batch of typical cases in the "Clear and Optimized Business Network Environment" campaign, which included the banning of the "Big Mouth Doctor" account for distorting company information and disrupting market order [3][6]. Incident Overview - In May, the "Big Mouth Doctor" account published a report alleging that Juzi Biological's product, Kefu Mei, was fraudulent, claiming it could not detect collagen [4][5]. - Juzi Biological responded with multiple statements asserting the accuracy of their products and the inaccuracy of the claims made by the "Big Mouth Doctor" [5][6]. Market Impact - The controversy led to a significant drop in Juzi Biological's stock price, with a reported decline of 10% over two days [6]. - The incident occurred during the "618" shopping festival, raising concerns about potential consumer backlash and its impact on sales [9]. Company Performance - Despite the controversy, Juzi Biological's financial performance remained strong, with a revenue increase from 2.375 billion to 5.539 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profit rising from 1 billion to 2.062 billion yuan [8]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with Kefu Mei contributing significantly to this growth [9]. Industry Context - The collagen market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.93%, reaching an estimated market size of 219.38 billion yuan by 2030 [10]. - Competitors in the beauty industry, such as Marubi and L'Oreal, are also increasing their investments in this segment, indicating a competitive landscape [10].

Group 1 - The National Cyberspace Administration of China announced the second batch of typical cases in the "Clear and Optimized Business Network Environment" campaign, addressing multiple accounts involved in coercing companies, distorting information, and malicious defamation [1] - The account "Big Mouth Doctor" was identified as having a commercial interest relationship with a beauty product company and was found to have published misleading evaluation information affecting market competition [1] - The incident involving "Big Mouth Doctor" and the accusations against Juzhi Biotechnology's product led to significant market discussions and scrutiny [2][3] Group 2 - Juzhi Biotechnology's product "Kefumei" faced allegations of false advertising, which the company refuted by stating that all products passed regulatory checks and were verified through a three-step quality control process [2][3] - Following the controversy, Juzhi Biotechnology's stock price experienced a decline of 10% over two days, indicating the impact of the trust crisis on the company's market performance [3] - The company's revenue increased significantly from 2.375 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.539 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit rising from 1 billion yuan to 2.062 billion yuan during the same period [4] Group 3 - Juzhi Biotechnology's major product, "Kefumei," accounted for 79% and 82% of total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively, highlighting its importance to the company's financial health [4] - The company reported a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with net profit rising by 20.2% to 1.182 billion yuan [5] - In contrast, Huaxi Biotechnology, which previously supported "Big Mouth Doctor," reported its worst interim results since listing, with a revenue decline of 19.57% [5] Group 4 - The collagen protein market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44.93%, reaching a market size of 219.38 billion yuan by 2030, indicating strong future growth potential [6] - The market for repair-focused cosmetics is expected to reach approximately 180 billion yuan in 2024, positioning it among the top three efficacy segments in the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Cyberspace Administration of China has launched a campaign to address online misinformation and threats against companies, highlighting the negative impact of certain social media accounts on business operations and market stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Online Misinformation and Threats - The campaign identified accounts such as "Big Mouth Doctor" that have repeatedly questioned the authenticity of collagen products from companies like Juzhibio, leading to reputational damage [1][2] - Accounts like "Communication Circle" have been reported for coercing businesses into "commercial cooperation" for illegal profits, demanding high fees under the guise of "tea fees" and threatening to release false information if contracts are not renewed [1] - The accounts involved have been shut down or placed on blacklists by the platforms for their actions [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Financial Institutions - Accounts such as "Fixed Income Talk" have been accused of fabricating information that harms the reputation of financial institutions, claiming "performance explosions" and "massive overdue product payments" [2] - These actions disrupt normal business operations and affect the stability of the financial market [2] Group 3: Market Competition and Consumer Misleading - "Big Mouth Doctor" has been linked to commercial interests with a beauty product company, leading to biased evaluations of competitors' products, which mislead consumers and disrupt market order [2] - Following accusations of fraud against Juzhibio, "Big Mouth Doctor" faced scrutiny regarding his motives, with suggestions of a close relationship with Huaxi Biological, a competitor [2][3] Group 4: Company Responses - Juzhibio has publicly denied the allegations made by "Big Mouth Doctor," asserting that the testing results were inaccurate and that they have engaged multiple authoritative third-party testing organizations for verification [3] - Following the controversy, "Big Mouth Doctor" faced account restrictions on social media platforms, with all related content being removed [3]