Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the medical aesthetics (医美) industry, which is showing signs of demand stabilization and potential growth for the company’s products in 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Key Insights 1. **Demand Stabilization**: Recent surveys in East China indicate a recovery in customer traffic and retail prices after a challenging period from 2022 to 2024, with double-digit growth in customer traffic reported by major institutions [1]. 2. **Retail Price Stability**: Retail prices for established products are stabilizing due to consistent labor and marketing costs, contributing to an upward trend in customer spending [2]. 3. **Upgrading Consumer Behavior**: There is a noticeable trend of existing customers upgrading their consumption, leading to higher average transaction values [2]. Product Segmentation 1. **Injection Fillers**: Hyaluronic acid products face pressure, but the "童颜针" (youthful needle) is expected to see significant growth in 2025 due to more mid-range manufacturers entering the market, with an estimated increase of 15-20% in sales volume [3]. 2. **Collagen Products**: 2025 is projected to be a year of accelerated penetration for collagen products, with an expected factory growth rate of over 20%, although retail prices may face pressure [3]. 3. **Essential Products**: Water-light products remain a necessity, with composite hyaluronic acid products continuing to show resilience, supported by the growth of "童颜水光" and collagen water-light products [3]. 4. **Botulinum Toxin**: This is the second-largest injection category, currently experiencing high single-digit to low double-digit growth in industry sales volume, with growth momentum expected to continue for several years [3]. Company Product Portfolio - Current core products include: - Botulinum toxin "乐提葆" - "斯弗妍" youthful needle - Composite energy product "冷妍" - "铂安润" hyaluronic acid - "黑曜双波" golden microneedle - Future products in development include injectable collagen, silk protein, and PDRN salmon needle [3]. Financial Projections 1. **Profitability Outlook**: The company anticipates a turnaround from loss to profit, estimating a performance of around CNY 200 million in 2025, with a reasonable range between CNY 150 million to CNY 250 million [3]. 2. **Operational Data**: The operational data for various medical aesthetic products is expected to improve, enhancing the reliability of guidance for 2025 and 2027 [3]. 3. **Valuation and Market Potential**: The valuation of the innovative subsidiaries "轩竹" and "惠升" is projected at CNY 4-5 billion, with the generics business expected to generate CNY 1-2 billion in profits. The medical aesthetics segment is projected to achieve CNY 700 million in revenue, warranting a valuation of 25 times [3]. 4. **Future Growth Potential**: The company anticipates a 50% growth potential within the year, with projected profits of CNY 200 million, CNY 790 million, and CNY 900 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, against a current market capitalization of CNY 12.8 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 64, 19.7, and 14.2x [3].

暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...