证券研究报告 Q3 延续调整，看好洞藏释能 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 | 目标价(人民币): | 49.14 | | --- | --- | | 龚源月 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520100001 | gongyuanyue@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQL737 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 宋英男 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523100004 | songyingnan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVO704 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 基本数据 迎驾贡酒 (603198 CH) | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 29 日) | 39.07 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 31,256 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 339.04 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 38.43-67.75 | 股价走势图 (37) (22) (7) 8 23 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 迎驾贡酒 沪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw an even larger decline in revenue, with a 24.13% drop compared to the same period last year, attributed to policy impacts and increased channel pressure [2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments, and anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as market conditions improve [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the sales gross margin was 68.33%, a decrease of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 27.12%, down 4.83 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of -179 million yuan in Q2 2025, indicating a decline in cash collection [3] Revenue Breakdown - Q2 2025 revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor was 817 million yuan and 210 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 23.6% and 32.9% year-on-year [2] - Sales revenue in provincial and non-provincial markets for Q2 2025 were 730 million yuan and 296 million yuan, down 20.3% and 36.4% year-on-year, respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.173 billion yuan and 2.402 billion yuan, representing decreases of 31% and 34% from previous estimates [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.72, 3.00, and 3.29 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [4]