证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5 -17 -40 相对表现 -7 -43 -61 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 (%) 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 Q3 下滑幅度与 Q2 接近，出清效果逐步显现 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布《2025 年第三季度报告》，25Q3 公司实现营收/归母净利润 13.6 亿 元/3.8 亿元，同比-20.8%/-39.0%。公司 Q3 营收、净利润下滑幅度较 Q2 相仿， 在行业整体大幅出清的背景下显现一定韧性，先于行业进行调整的效果逐步显 现。各产品线单季度调整幅度同比收窄，洞 6、洞 9 在省内市场需求基本平稳， 静候动销企稳后业绩逐步修复。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6720 | 7344 | 6052 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-13 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 17022.92 | | 52 | 周最高 | 19550.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《IFBH（6603.HK）：椰子水空间广 阔，公司产品市场品牌端持续加码、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw an even larger decline in revenue, with a 24.13% drop compared to the same period last year, attributed to policy impacts and increased channel pressure [2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments, and anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as market conditions improve [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the sales gross margin was 68.33%, a decrease of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 27.12%, down 4.83 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of -179 million yuan in Q2 2025, indicating a decline in cash collection [3] Revenue Breakdown - Q2 2025 revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor was 817 million yuan and 210 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 23.6% and 32.9% year-on-year [2] - Sales revenue in provincial and non-provincial markets for Q2 2025 were 730 million yuan and 296 million yuan, down 20.3% and 36.4% year-on-year, respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 2.173 billion yuan and 2.402 billion yuan, representing decreases of 31% and 34% from previous estimates [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.72, 3.00, and 3.29 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Anhui liquor industry is experiencing a shift in inventory management and pricing strategies, leading to a competitive landscape characterized by price sensitivity and improved sales performance during the Spring Festival compared to the previous year [1][2][11]. Industry Summary - The overall performance of Anhui liquor companies weakened in the second half of the year, with several firms reporting negative growth in the third and fourth quarters [2][11]. - Despite the challenges, local distributors noted a positive trend in Spring Festival sales, with inventory levels decreasing by over 15% compared to the previous year [2][13]. - The industry is currently in a phase of clearing and bottoming out, with a focus on rational management and adjusting sales targets [12]. Company Performance - Companies like Yingjia and Kuaizi reported mixed results, with Yingjia's revenue growing by 8.46% to 7.344 billion yuan, while Kuaizi's high-end liquor revenue saw a slight increase of 0.06% [11][14]. - Jinzhongzi acknowledged a decline in revenue due to decreased sales of its core products, highlighting the importance of understanding consumer price sensitivity [11][12]. - The introduction of new marketing strategies and product lines is aimed at enhancing brand recognition and market share [11][14]. Pricing and Competition - The competition in the 200 yuan price range is intensifying, with brands like Gujing and Kuaizi leveraging price advantages during bulk purchases [14][15]. - The pricing strategy is crucial, as some products previously priced above 300 yuan have now entered the 200-300 yuan range, increasing competitive pressure [14][15]. - Gujing is considering packaging upgrades to maintain its market position and reduce pressure on its flagship products [15][16]. Market Dynamics - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious optimism, with expectations of a 5% growth in sales for the upcoming quarters, driven by improved consumer purchasing behavior during the Spring Festival [12][13]. - The distribution channels are adapting to changing consumer preferences, with a noted increase in family and social gatherings contributing to sales growth [12][13].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic demand due to tariff events, with food and beverage companies primarily targeting the domestic market, leading to better stock performance. It outlines four main investment themes centered on domestic circulation, highlighting short-term catalysts for stock prices, medium to long-term growth prospects, and high dividend yield assets [3][4][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 18005.21, with a 52-week high of 20128.95 and a low of 14118.56 [1] Investment Highlights - Short-term catalysts include the gradual digestion of pressure from snack quarterly reports and the arrival of buying opportunities, with beer entering its peak season and cost improvements continuing. Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulux are highlighted for their strong performance and attractive valuations [3] - Medium to long-term prospects are positive for companies like Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand and cost improvements, and dairy companies like Yili and New Dairy, which are anticipated to recover profitability due to improved milk prices and demand from birth subsidy policies [3] - High dividend yield assets include brands like Master Kong (5.73%), Uni-President (5.56%), and Chengde Lulux (4.92%) [3] Weekly Performance Review - The food and beverage sector performed well, with the industry index showing a weekly increase of +0.20%, ranking 4th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. The current dynamic PE ratio is 22.15, which is considered low historically [7][32] Company-Specific Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is expected to see a revenue growth of 7% and a net profit growth of 8% in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining price stability [20] - Yili's revenue is projected to remain flat with a significant drop in net profit due to previous asset transfers, while New Dairy is expected to see a profit increase of 18-20% [22][30] - Dongpeng Beverage is forecasted to achieve a revenue growth of 30% and a net profit growth of 36% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for its products [23][30] Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards rational growth in the liquor sector, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining competitive valuations and dividend yields, indicating resilience and risk management capabilities [19][30]