盘面上，两市高开后震荡，化工概念板块上涨。相关ETF方面，化工ETF天弘（159133）标的指数盘中 涨3.57%，净申购达1250万份，为深市同类基金第一；成交额达2780.06万元；换手率达1.02%。成分股 中，和邦生物、川发龙蟒涨停，云天化、扬农化工、兴发集团、宏达股份、桐昆股份涨超5%，东方盛 虹、鲁西化工、彤程新材等多股跟涨。 值得关注的是，Wind显示，化工ETF天弘（159133）近33个交易日（2025年12月29日—2026年02月13 日）实现连续"吸金"，最近30个交易日累计获资金净流入19.50亿元。截至2026年02月13日，该基金最 新规模为26.58亿元。 化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪的是中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数从市场中选取涉及化学制品、化 学纤维、化肥与农药等细分领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工行业各细分市场的整体表 现。该指数具有较高的行业集中度和代表性，为关注化工行业发展动态的投资者提供了有效的参考工 具。该ETF还配备了2只场外联接基金（A类：015896；C类：015897）。 消息面上，据东方证券报告显示，染料龙头自2月8日起上调分散染料价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in the pattern of disperse dye intermediates is expected to drive up disperse dye prices, while the supply tightening of H-acid, an active dye intermediate, may also lead to potential price increases. The price increase expectations for these two types of dyes have been gradually confirmed by leading companies' price hikes, with a positive outlook for a long-term bullish market driven by environmental and dual-carbon policies in China [1]. Industry Restructuring - China is the largest dye producer globally, but the dye industry is highly polluting, generating significant wastewater. The tightening of environmental regulations has led to the exit of non-compliant small enterprises, resulting in a higher industry concentration. The concentration ratio (CR4) for disperse dyes is 67.2%, and for active dyes, it is 65.3%, indicating a well-established industry reshuffle [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines to expand zero-carbon factory construction to various sectors, including textiles, which may tighten carbon emission requirements in the dyeing industry [1]. Intermediate Supply Dynamics - The production of disperse dye intermediates involves complex processes that generate substantial waste, leading to a concentrated supply among compliant enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. The supply elasticity is low due to the closure of many non-compliant small factories [2]. - The effective capacity of H-acid has fallen below 60,000 tons, with a supply gap exceeding 10%. Recent maintenance by two major H-acid manufacturers may further reduce effective capacity by over 25% [2]. Price Elasticity and Market Comparison - The current situation of intermediates in the dye industry is likened to the relationship between citral and VA, characterized by complex synthesis processes and high concentration among leading firms. The cost of intermediates constitutes a significant portion of the production costs for dyes, which may lead to effective cost transmission [3]. - Historical data shows that disperse dye prices reached a high of 45,000 yuan/ton in 2015 and 19,000 yuan/ton currently, while active dye prices peaked at 33,000 yuan/ton in 2016 and are now at 23,000 yuan/ton, indicating substantial upward price potential [3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include RunTu Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jihua Group, Jinji Co., Annuoqi, Yabang Co., Fulaient, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market dynamics and integrated advantages [3].