● 本报记者 葛瑶 国际金价的涨幅，令机构此前最乐观的预测都显得保守。此前，各家国际投行对2026年国际金价的预测 区间大致落在4800美元/盎司至5500美元/盎司之间，但开年不足一月，金价便已提前穿越这一区间。 涨价趋势逐渐蔓延，市场关心的问题是：涨价接力棒将传向何方？ 涨声四起 贵金属上涨，早已不是新鲜事。自2025年初以来，国际金价在短短一年多时间不断攀升，截至2026年2 月27日，伦敦金现货价格涨幅已超90%，伦敦银现货价格则涨逾200%，远超黄金。 基本金属市场同样暗流汹涌。锗价接近5000美元/公斤，钨价持续走高，稀土系列维持高景气。二级市 场上，稀土永磁、小金属概念指数2026年初以来涨幅紧随贵金属之后，盛和资源、中钨高新等个股相继 异动。 涨价的热浪并未止步于金属，化工板块暗潮涌动。近期，分散染料龙头浙江龙盛、闰土股份相继上调分 散黑等核心染料产品报价。据百川盈孚数据，截至2月22日，分散染料价格报2.1万元/吨，年初以来上 涨23.53%；活性染料价格报2.3万元/吨，上涨4.55%。 能源领域，油气价格上行。国际油价在地缘扰动与供需再平衡的推拉中逐步抬升。而在运输端，油轮市 场的涨势同 ...

来源：上海证券报微信公众号 编 者 按 2025年7月起，多种化工品、工业制品、原料价格掀起上涨浪潮，引发市场的广泛关注。价格跳动的曲 线背后，藏着市场最关切的三重追问：此轮涨价由何驱动？这波涨势能持续多久？产业链上下游企业的 业绩能否借此迎来修复契机，又将如何重塑行业竞争格局？ 春江水暖"价"先知。涨价，是经济脉络复苏中最灵敏的脉动信号。上海证券报微信公众号推出《市场 探"涨"》系列报道，意在凸显这一系列价格变化背后的市场活力与商业逻辑变迁。透过"涨"声，倾听复 苏脚步；在潮起潮落之间，探见未来可期。 继2月初上调价格后，分散染料再度提价。 记者获悉，2月24日，全球染料龙头浙江龙盛对分散染料产品实施新一轮调价，涨价幅度分为2000元/ 吨、4000元/吨两档，其中主力品种ECT300%分散黑每吨上调4000元。2月25日，闰土股份亦宣布对分散 染料价格进行适当上调，最高涨幅为4000元/吨。 原材料还原物涨价为核心原因 闰土股份称，染料产品价格由市场供需及原料价格等因素决定。还原物是分散染料的重要中间体之一， 其价格近两年来在较低位运行，自2026年元月下旬开始上涨，截至目前市场报价在7万元/吨左右。 从 ...

截至2月26日9点50分，石化ETF（159731）强势上行涨1.22%，持仓股盐湖股份、蓝晓科技、藏格 矿业等涨幅居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计11.53亿 元。石化ETF最新份额达17.41亿份，最新规模18.54亿元。 每日经济新闻 根据百川盈孚，2月25日分散染料市场均价为2.5万元/吨，较上周上涨19.05%，较上月上涨 38.89%，较去年同期上涨47.06%。春节后印染行业将进入传统生产旺季，下游备货需求正在释放。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 中银证券认为，展望后市，短期内分散染料核心中间体的供给缺口难以弥补，预计中间体价格有望 继续冲高，叠加"金三银四"需求旺季，预计近期分散染料价格有望继续上涨；中长期需观察终端需求能 否有效承接上游价格传导。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 展望2026年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in various chemical products and industrial materials starting from July 2025 have raised significant market attention, driven primarily by rising raw material costs and supply chain dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases - Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu Co. have announced multiple price hikes for disperse dyes, with increases of 2000 to 4000 yuan per ton, particularly for the ECT300% disperse black, which saw a 4000 yuan increase [1][3]. - The price of disperse black has cumulatively risen by approximately 5000 yuan per ton since early February 2025 [3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The primary driver for the price increases is the rising cost of raw materials, especially key intermediates like reducing agents, which have been at low levels for the past two years but began to rise in late January 2026, currently priced around 70,000 yuan per ton [3][4]. - The production capacity of reducing agents is highly concentrated among a few companies, with Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu Co. being major players, and Ningxia Zhongsheng New Technology Co. holding a 65% global market share [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current price hikes may lead to increased differentiation within the industry, favoring leading companies with upstream integration while smaller firms lacking self-sufficient intermediate production capabilities face significant survival challenges [4]. - Analysts predict that the price increase trend may last for 1 to 3 months, after which a period of high-level consolidation is expected, with long-term price trends dependent on the recovery of end-user demand [5][7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The dye industry is anticipated to experience a phase of "high price volatility, weak demand recovery, and intensified competition" in 2026, driven by supply-side factors [7]. - The industry is undergoing a restructuring phase influenced by cost dynamics and supply-demand relationships, with a focus on cost control, technological advancement, and market adaptability for long-term competitiveness [7].

中银证券（601696）近日发布化工行业周报：本周（02.17-02.24）国际油价大幅上涨，WTI原油期货价 格收于66.31美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅6.39%；布伦特原油期货价格收于71.49美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅 6.04%。宏观方面，根据新浪财经的消息，美国与伊朗关系持续紧张，地缘政治紧张局势以及市场对美 国可能对伊朗采取行动的担忧成为本轮油价上涨的主要推手。 以下为研究报告摘要： 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 本周（02.17-02.24）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有33个品种价格上涨，8个品种价格下跌59个品种 价格稳定。跟踪的产品中60%的产品月均价环比上涨，29%的产品月均价环比下跌，11%的产品月均价 环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是WTI原油、纯苯（FOB韩国）、石脑油（新加坡）、对二甲苯 （PX东南亚）、硝酸铵（陕西兴化）；周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是甲苯（华东）、电石（华东）、 硝酸（华东地区）、二氯甲烷（华东）、多氟多（002407）冰晶石。 本周（02.17- ...

中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（02.17-02.24）国际油价大幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于66.31 美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅6.39%；布伦特原油期货价格收于71.49美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅6.04%。宏观方 面，根据新浪财经的消息，美国与伊朗关系持续紧张，地缘政治紧张局势以及市场对美国可能对伊朗采 取行动的担忧成为本轮油价上涨的主要推手。 以下为研究报告摘要： 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 本周（02.17-02.24）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有33个品种价格上涨，8个品种价格下跌59个品种 价格稳定。跟踪的产品中60%的产品月均价环比上涨，29%的产品月均价环比下跌，11%的产品月均价 环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是WTI原油、纯苯（FOB韩国）、石脑油（新加坡）、对二甲苯 （PX东南亚）、硝酸铵（陕西兴化）；周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是甲苯（华东）、电石（华东）、 硝酸（华东地区）、二氯甲烷（华东）、多氟多冰晶石。 本周（02.17-02.24）国际油价大幅上涨，W ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector is experiencing overall strength, with sub-sectors like phosphate chemicals and dyes continuing to rise. For instance, Chengxing Co. reached the daily limit, and Zhejiang Longsheng has seen a year-to-date increase of over 54%. Analysts suggest that the exit of overseas capacity, domestic supply contraction, and anti-involution policies are driving a rebalancing of supply and demand in the chemical industry, potentially directing funds towards smaller market cap stocks within the sector [1]. Market Activity - On February 25, 2026, the stock price of Chenhua Co. (300610.SZ) experienced a significant movement, rising by 4.39% to close at 13.31 yuan, with a trading volume of 334 million yuan and a turnover rate of 15.54%. The day saw a net inflow of speculative funds amounting to 19.85 million yuan, accounting for 5.95% of the total trading volume, while main funds saw a net outflow of 1.63 million yuan. The stock price broke through the upper Bollinger Band (12.94 yuan) and stabilized above the 20-day moving average (12.33 yuan), indicating a strong short-term technical outlook [1][2]. Company Fundamentals - Chenhua Co.'s Q3 2025 report indicates a revenue decline of 4.76% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 20.80%, with a net profit of only 600,000 yuan in Q3. However, the recent stabilization and rebound in chemical prices, such as continuous price adjustments in disperse dyes, may alleviate cost pressures. Additionally, the company's subsidiary, Huai'an Chenhua, has received environmental approval for a project with an annual capacity of 35,000 tons of alkyl glycosides, which could contribute to long-term capacity growth [3]. Future Outlook - Companies in the chemical sector, including Chuanjinno, have recently announced uncertainties regarding raw material price fluctuations and policy impacts. It is essential to monitor how changes in industry supply and demand will affect individual stocks [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant price increase in the chemical sector, particularly in sub-sectors like phosphorus chemicals, titanium dioxide, fertilizers, and glyphosate, driven by leading companies' collective price hikes [1][2] - Zhejiang Longsheng, a leader in the dye and textile chemicals industry, announced a price increase of 5000 yuan/ton for certain disperse dyes due to rising costs of upstream key intermediates [1][2] - Another leading company, Runtu Co., also confirmed a similar price increase for disperse black dye, indicating a synchronized response to the rising costs of raw materials [1][2] Group 2 - The ability of leading companies to implement price increases is supported by rigid supply constraints, particularly in the disperse dye sector where the price of reducing agents has surged over 50% from last year's lows, with supply gaps difficult to alleviate in the short term due to environmental regulations and high technical barriers [2] - In the titanium dioxide sector, price adjustments are also driven by supply constraints, with high prices for sulfur, a critical raw material, and supply tightening due to maintenance shutdowns of acid production facilities [2] - The recent rise in international oil prices has further fueled the price increase logic in the chemical industry, with WTI and Brent crude prices rising nearly 14% over the past three months, enhancing the cost transmission and market expectations for price hikes across the chemical supply chain [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Securities, the chemical industry is at a turning point after four years of decline, with the basic chemical sector achieving a net profit of 112.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and indicating initial stabilization of the sector [3] - The market is expected to transition from a phase of "weak reality, strong expectations" to a verification period focused on whether price increases can be sustained [3]

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260225 国际油价大幅上涨，分散染料迎来第四轮涨价 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 相关研究报告 《染料价格上行，一体化企业有望受益》 20260211 《化工行业周报 20260208》20260208 《化工行业周报 20260201》20260202 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 ◼ 本周（02.17-02.24）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 33 个品种价格上涨，8 个品种价格下跌， 59 个品 ...

国际油价大幅上涨，分散染料迎来第四轮涨价 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260225 相关研究报告 《染料价格上行，一体化企业有望受益》 20260211 《化工行业周报 20260208》20260208 《化工行业周报 20260201》20260202 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 ◼ 本周（02.17-02.24）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 33 个品种价格上涨，8 个品种价格下跌， ...