证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-27 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：特朗普宣布罢免理事库克，美联储独立性遭挑战 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联 储理事库克，成为 1913 年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃 勒和鲍曼 2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能 够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有 4 人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未 来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储 独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数 下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续 发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、美债期限溢价走阔。 风险提示： 特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长， 引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20250825：转债市场分歧正在累积 1）在维持整体仓位稳健的基础上 ...

中航重机8月26日股价报收17.28元，较前一交易日下跌0.17元，跌幅0.97%。当日成交量为251300手， 成交金额达4.34亿元。 公司最新公告显示，已完成通过北京产权交易所公开挂牌转让参股公司卓越锻造科技29.9879%股权的 事项，收到股权转让价款17029.73万元。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 中航重机是中国航空工业集团旗下专业从事锻铸业务的核心企业，主要产品包括航空锻件、液压件等。 公司业务涵盖航空航天、船舶、电力等多个领域。 8月26日主力资金净流出4865.77万元，近五日主力资金累计净流出17207.38万元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the trend of companies expanding overseas and identifies 2025 as the year of mass production for humanoid robots, presenting hardware investment opportunities [1][3]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US is expected to support the growth of domestic companies in overseas markets, particularly in the tool market where relocation to the US is challenging due to cost and efficiency advantages [3]. - Key companies to watch include Giant Technology, Changrun Co., Honghua Digital Science, and others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [3][4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Stocks - The report lists preferred stocks with ratings: - Jack Co. (603337.SH) - Buy-A - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) - Buy-A - Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH) - Accumulate-A - Qiaocheng Ultrasonic (688392.SH) - Buy-A - Honghua Digital Science (688789.SH) - Buy-A - Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH) - Buy-A - Jiechang Drive (603583.SH) - Accumulate-A [2][10]. Industry Key Data Tracking - Forklifts: In June 2025, 137,570 units were sold, a 23.1% increase year-on-year. For the first half of 2025, sales totaled 739,334 units, up 11.7% [13]. - Excavators: June 2025 sales reached 18,804 units, a 13.3% increase. Total sales for the first half were 120,520 units, up 16.8% [14]. - Automotive Cranes: June sales were 1,649 units, down 5.28%. Total sales for the first half were 10,752 units, down 8.4% [17]. - Tower Cranes: June sales were 437 units, down 44.8%. Total sales for the first half were 2,771 units, down 38% [21]. - Loaders: June sales were 12,014 units, up 11.3%. Total sales for the first half were 64,769 units, up 13.6% [22]. - Metal Cutting Machine Tools: June production was 70,500 units, up 12.7%. Total production for the first half was 403,000 units, up 13.5% [24]. - Industrial Robots: June production was 74,764 units, up 37.9%. Total production for the first half was 379,000 units, up 35.6% [28].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has maintained a stable credit rating outlook for Yantai Aidi Precision Machinery Co., Ltd, reflecting the company's strong market position and customer base in the hydraulic component sector, despite some concerns regarding inventory and accounts receivable growth [3][5][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.725 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.90%, and a net profit of 344 million yuan, up 23.50% [5][6]. - The company's hydraulic component business saw a revenue increase of 1.344 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.53% [5][6]. - The operating cash flow improved to 155 million yuan, indicating better cash management [4][22]. Inventory and Accounts Receivable - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory, with the stock of hydraulic hammers rising by 53.39% to 2,261 units, which raises concerns about working capital utilization [6][20]. - Accounts receivable growth outpaced revenue growth, necessitating attention to its impact on working capital [6][20]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The production capacity utilization rate for hydraulic hammers was only 54.75%, indicating underutilization and potential profitability risks if market demand does not meet expectations [6][20]. - The hydraulic components' production capacity utilization improved to 84.36%, reflecting a positive trend in production efficiency [19][21]. Market Position and Customer Base - The company maintains a strong customer base among leading machinery manufacturers, which provides a degree of revenue stability [5][22]. - The top five customers accounted for 47.99% of sales revenue, indicating a concentrated customer base within the cyclical construction machinery industry [22]. Investment and Expansion Plans - The company has postponed some investment projects, including the construction of high-pressure pumps and valves, which may affect future production capabilities [8][20]. - New projects in Thailand aim to enhance production capacity and market competitiveness, with a focus on hydraulic hammers and high-end hydraulic components [20][22]. Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 3.13% in 2024, and a strong growth forecast for 2025 [14][15]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and increasing infrastructure investment are expected to benefit the engineering machinery sector [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Shaoyang Hydraulic has decided to terminate its plan for a private placement of shares for the year 2024, which will not adversely affect its normal operations or sustainable development [1][3]. Group 1: Termination of Share Issuance - The company held its sixth board meeting on May 26, 2024, where it approved the termination of the private placement of shares [1]. - The decision to terminate the issuance does not require shareholder approval as it falls within the board's authority [1]. - The company reassured that its production and operational activities are proceeding normally and that the termination will not harm the interests of shareholders, especially minority shareholders [1]. Group 2: Details of the Proposed Share Issuance - The proposed private placement was intended for a specific investor, Cui Wuhong, who is the controlling shareholder and chairman of the company [1][3]. - The planned issuance was set at a price of 9.76 yuan per share, which is 80% of the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days [2]. - The maximum number of shares to be issued was 15,368,852, representing 13.93% of the total share capital before the issuance [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 351.19 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.33% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.40 million yuan, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the previous year [5]. - The net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 1.74 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 51.98% [5]. - The company experienced a negative cash flow from operating activities of -2.57 million yuan, compared to a positive cash flow of 10.52 million yuan in the previous year [5]. Group 4: Shareholder Structure - As of April 30, 2024, Cui Wuhong directly held 32,497,967 shares, accounting for 29.45% of the total share capital, and indirectly controlled an additional 3,653,417 shares through a related party [3]. - After the proposed issuance, the total share capital would increase from 110,364,584 shares to 125,733,436 shares, with Cui Wuhong's total control rising to 40.98% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. successfully completed a non-public offering of 35,460,992 shares at a price of 56.40 RMB per share, raising a total of approximately 1.99 billion RMB in net funds [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. was established on June 2, 2005, with a registered capital of 1,340,820,992 RMB [1]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and technical support of high-pressure cylinders, hydraulic components, hydraulic systems, high-pressure plunger pumps and motors, high-pressure hydraulic valves, and precision castings [1]. Group 2: Sponsorship and Supervision - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) served as the sponsor for Hengli Hydraulic's non-public offering and is responsible for ongoing supervision [1][2]. - The sponsorship period for the non-public offering will conclude on December 31, 2024, and CICC will continue to oversee the remaining use of raised funds [4]. Group 3: Due Diligence and Compliance - During the due diligence phase, CICC conducted thorough investigations and prepared necessary documentation in compliance with regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2]. - Throughout the ongoing supervision phase, Hengli Hydraulic adhered to legal and regulatory requirements, ensuring timely and accurate information disclosure [3]. Group 4: Fund Management - The company has complied with regulations regarding the management of raised funds, maintaining dedicated accounts for storage and specific usage [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, there are still some unutilized funds from the raised capital, and CICC will continue to monitor their usage [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with significant revenue and profit growth, although gross margins were impacted by the introduction of low-margin new products [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 344 million yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 770 million yuan, also reflecting a 21.9% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 102 million yuan, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit margin improved to 12.6% in 2024, although it decreased to 13.2% in Q1 2025 due to the rising proportion of new business [2]. Gross Margin and Expenses - The overall gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 1.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, to 29.5% and 26.3%, primarily due to the higher revenue share from low-margin new products [1]. - The gross margins for hydraulic breakers and hydraulic components were 34.96% and 30.36%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.2 percentage points and 0.71 percentage points [1]. - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios changed by +0.3, -0.6, and -0.5 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, while R&D expense ratio remained stable [1]. Business Development - The domestic demand for construction machinery is expected to recover in 2025, with the company poised to benefit from this trend [3]. - In Q1 2025, excavator sales reached 61,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with domestic sales of 37,000 units, up 38.3% [3]. - The company is expanding its new business lines, including tools, industrial robot components, lithium battery PACK business, and transmission components, with other product revenue reaching 400 million yuan in 2024, a 103.04% increase year-on-year [3]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company is constructing a new factory in Thailand, expected to produce 16,000 hydraulic breakers, 36,000 diversified attachments, and 8,000 high-end hydraulic components annually [3]. - The company is also developing a high-end hydraulic component project under the brand Aisaki [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains EPS forecasts of 0.49 yuan for 2025 and 0.57 yuan for 2026, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 38.1 and 32.9 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The target price has been raised by 17% to 24.40 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 30% from the current stock price [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The direct export cost of engineering machinery to the US has significantly increased due to tariffs, reaching 79% (25% + 20% + 34%), but the overall risk is manageable as the exposure to the US market is low for major manufacturers [1] - Key recommendations focus on companies with North American factories and those with facilities in Mexico (which has tariff exemptions) or Brazil and Turkey (which can bear a 10% tariff) [2] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Hengli Hydraulic have established production capabilities in North America, which can help mitigate tariff risks [2] - The report suggests that the overall risk is controllable despite the tariff impacts, and recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic for investment [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The engineering machinery sector faces a 79% tariff on exports to the US, but major companies have limited exposure, with SANY at approximately 3% and Hengli at about 5% [1] - If retaliatory measures are taken by sanctioned countries, it could benefit Chinese engineering machinery brands, especially in emerging markets [1] Overseas Factory Layout - Companies with North American factories include SANY and Hengli, with SANY's future production capacity expected to exceed 2,000 units, corresponding to about 1 billion yuan [2] - Hengli's North American factory has an annual output value of 300-400 million yuan for hydraulic components, with plans to produce planetary screws if tariffs persist [2] - In Mexico, Hengli and Zoomlion have factories, with Hengli's projected annual output value increasing from 2 billion to 3-4 billion yuan [2] - Zoomlion's factory in Mexico has achieved over 1 billion yuan in actual sales since full production began in Q3 2024 [2] - In Brazil and Turkey, Zoomlion and LiuGong have factories with a combined capacity exceeding 3 billion yuan [2]