港口物流及智慧科技服务

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招商港口(001872):布局新兴市场,量价有望上行
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-17 09:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.44 CNY, based on a target PE of 12.5 times [7][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in revenue and profit driven by investments and acquisitions, with a projected CAGR of 9% for revenue and 27% for net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][15]. - The domestic container business is anticipated to grow steadily, with significant contributions from the Shenxi Port area, which is expected to see an 18% increase in container throughput in 2024 [2][37]. - The overseas business is projected to benefit from emerging market growth, with a CAGR of 10% for revenue and 12% for profit from 2018 to 2024 [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading global port operator, focusing on port investment, operation, logistics, and smart technology [15]. - It has a strong historical background as a state-owned enterprise and has established a significant global presence through strategic investments and acquisitions [16][30]. 2. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic container throughput is expected to grow significantly, with the Shenxi Port area projected to account for 81% of the total throughput of mainland-controlled terminals in 2024 [2][30]. - The company’s net profit from domestic operations is primarily driven by investments in key ports in the Yangtze River Delta region [34][40]. 3. Overseas Business Expansion - The overseas revenue and profit are expected to grow due to emerging market opportunities, particularly in Sri Lanka and Brazil, with a focus on enhancing port capabilities [3][47]. - The company has been actively expanding its control over key ports in emerging markets, aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative [57][64]. 4. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 46.9 billion CNY in 2025, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [4][5]. - The report highlights a strong financial outlook, with a consistent increase in EBITDA and net profit margins [5][21].