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【哔哩哔哩(BILI.O)】AI强化广告基建能力,关注储备游戏释放进展——2Q25业绩前瞻(付天姿/杨朋沛)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-23 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to show significant growth in revenue and profit in Q2 2025, driven by its gaming and advertising segments, while also focusing on enhancing user engagement through new game features and AI-driven advertising solutions [4][5][6]. Group 1: Q2 2025 Performance Forecast - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue of 7.33 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.7% [4] - Revenue breakdown by segment includes: gaming at 1.61 billion RMB (yoy +60%), VAS at 2.82 billion RMB (yoy +10%), advertising at 2.42 billion RMB (yoy +19%), and e-commerce at 480 million RMB (yoy -8%) [4] - Expected gross profit for Q2 2025 is 2.68 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 36.5%, and adjusted net profit is projected at 550 million RMB, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 7.5% [4] Group 2: Investor Day Highlights - The gaming segment is set to enhance user engagement with new features, such as the 3D island system for "Azur Lane" and a high-revenue card pool for "FGO," which is expected to see a 31% revenue increase in 2024 [5] - Upcoming game releases include "Dudu Face Prank," "Escape from Duckkov," and "Three Kingdoms Ncard," which aim to create a user ecosystem and improve user lifecycle and content penetration [5] - The company is also focusing on global expansion with plans to release localized versions of its core IPs in various markets [5] Group 3: AI and Advertising Innovations - The company is restructuring its recommendation algorithms and aims to complete industry-wide selection by H2 2025, with testing of end-to-end learning expected in H1 2026 [6] - AI capabilities are being integrated to enhance creative efficiency, with AI-generated titles and covers already achieving over 30% generation rates and a 14% increase in average click-through rates [6] - The advertising ROI has surpassed 75%, with deep conversion ad placements reaching over 55%, and the company aims to increase AI automated ad penetration to over 50% by the end of 2025 [6]