Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. The main contract of pulp futures dropped significantly during the week, hitting a new monthly low, intensifying the panic in the spot market. Demand is deeply weak, and supply pressure is increasing. The high port inventory and the expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil in July continue to put pressure on spot liquidity. The reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp also weakens cost support [84]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.352 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 138,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 11.5%. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.163 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [6]. - In May 2025, the inventory days of bleached softwood pulp of 20 world commodity pulp suppliers increased by 5 days to 46 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. The total shipment volume in May increased by 1.9% month - on - month, with the shipment volume of bleached softwood pulp increasing by 4.4% and that of bleached hardwood pulp increasing by 1.2% [6]. - In May 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 3.082 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.108 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. Market Data - On June 27, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 854 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 151.18%. The basis of Russian Needle was 24 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.54% and a year - on - year increase of 140.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 107.50% [15]. - On June 27, 2025, the 09 - 11 month spread was 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.44%. The 11 - 01 month spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 168.29% [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price**: - On June 27, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 123.53%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.96% and a year - on - year increase of 137.78% [29]. - The import profit of Silver Star was 42 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 69.01% and a year - on - year increase of 107.79%. The star of hardwood pulp had no quotation in June, and the supply is expected to partially resume in July [34][35]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, and 5,120 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.65%, 1.63%, 0.79%, 1.63%, and 2.48% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 5.56%, 4.72%, 1.57%, 4.72%, and 13.22% respectively [36]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% and year - on - year decreases of 25.69%, 25.00%, 25.00%, and 22.86% respectively [44]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.96% and 5.13% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 8.26% and 3.90% respectively [48]. - **Supply**: - In April 2025, the inventory in European ports decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp departure volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in European ports was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. The global pulp departure volume was 4.077 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.89% [51][52]. - In May 2025, the import volume of pulp showed differentiated month - on - month performance. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp increased by 7.84% month - on - month [54]. - **Demand**: - On June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 73.90%, 63.40%, 57.15%, and 56.33% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.35%, 2.09%, 4.67%, and - 0.39% respectively, and year - on - year changes of - 3.90%, 0.06%, - 10.30%, and - 11.90% respectively [58]. - The average prices of white cardboard, wood pulp household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 27, 2025 were 4,065 yuan/ton, 5,666.67 yuan/ton, 5,125 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.73%, 1.16%, 0.73%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 6.77%, 15.00%, 9.99%, and 4.85% respectively [59]. - The profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 26 or 27, 2025 were 600 yuan/ton, 243.10 yuan/ton, 170.57 yuan/ton, and 912 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.56%, - 18.67%, 32.67%, and 4.29% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 76.47%, 358.51%, 255.35%, and 90.20% respectively [72]. - **Inventory**: - On June 27, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 228,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 16,300 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25% [73]. - On June 27, 2025, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the sum of Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port were 1.352 million tons, 546,000 tons, and 265,000 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.44%, - 6.67%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 33.20%, 4.60%, and 52.30% respectively. The total inventory of the five ports was 2.163 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% and a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [80]. Operation Suggestion - Pulp is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. It is predicted that pulp will maintain volatile consolidation and operate weakly in the near future. The main factors include weak demand, high port inventory, expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil, and the reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp [84].