国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 行情走势 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：隆众资讯 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月31日，中国纸浆常熟港库存51.4万吨，较上周期下降6.2万吨，环比下降10.8%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月31日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存140.5万吨，较上周上涨4.3万吨，环比上涨3.2%。本周期青岛港库存 周期内呈现累库的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the pulp market may follow the market trend and undergo a corrective adjustment. The supply side is under pressure with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The demand side faces cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp. The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may improve. It is expected that the pulp market will decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of July 24, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 57.6 tons, down 3.2 tons from the previous period, a 5% MoM decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 136.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from last week, a 1.0% MoM increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 8.1 tons, down 0.8 tons from last week, a 9.0% MoM decrease. The total inventory of China's major pulp ports was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% MoM decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.1% MoM decrease and a 23.3% YoY increase; the import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 143.5 tons, a 11.0% MoM increase and an 18.9% YoY increase; the import volume of softwood chips was 7.2 tons, a 234.9% MoM increase and a 125.9% YoY increase; the import volume of hardwood chips was 129.2 tons, a 0.2% MoM increase and a 1.3% YoY decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 400 yuan/ton, a 36.31% MoM decrease and a 7.41% YoY decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 20 yuan/ton, a 350.00% MoM decrease and a 162.50% YoY decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 420 yuan/ton, a 32.26% MoM decrease and a 5.00% YoY increase [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 193.75% MoM increase; the 11 - 01 spread was - 146 yuan/ton, a 19.78% MoM increase [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased by 2.75% MoM and increased by 86.32% YoY; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased by 12.50% MoM and 145.45% YoY. The import profit of silver star pulp increased by 2804% MoM and 11502% YoY; the import profit of star pulp increased by 277.35% MoM and 103.50% YoY [24][32]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both MoM and YoY; the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance, with the softwood pulp import volume decreasing by 6.07% MoM and the hardwood pulp import volume increasing by 10.96% MoM [47][50]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased slightly, while that of tissue paper increased slightly. The profits of white cardboard, tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased to varying degrees [55][65]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased, and the spot inventory of major ports decreased slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.65 tons, a 0.11% MoM decrease and a 50.50% YoY decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.92 tons, a 0.52% MoM decrease and a 40.25% YoY decrease [69]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The supply side pressure is solidified, with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The major port inventory decreased slightly this period [79]. - **Demand**: The demand side has cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp [79]. - **View**: The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak. The divergence between futures and spot prices may improve, and the pulp market may decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. - **Valuation**: The basis of silver star pulp in Shandong decreased by 64 yuan/ton [79]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for a single - sided trade; use a reverse spread strategy for the 9 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5264 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% and a day - on - week decrease of 0.04%; SP2507 was 5060 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 3.62%; SP2509 was 5066 with a day - on - day decrease of 0.08% and a week - on - week decrease of 3.58% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5950 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%; Russian Needle was 5120 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.22% [1]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In June 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 560 with no change; Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Imports**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.3 tons [1]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On June 26, 2025, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1]. 3.5 Demand - Side Data - **Finished - Paper Production**: In the week of June 27, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons; copperplate paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 28.00 tons; white cardboard was 30.30 tons. The production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. 3.6 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 54 with a quantile level of 0.809; the Silver Star basis was 884 with a quantile level of 0.975 [1]. - **Import Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 66 with a quantile level of 0.739; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537 with a quantile level of 0.189 [1].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 操作建议 行业资讯 资料来源：中纸网，纸业联讯，隆众资讯 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年6月26日，中国纸浆常熟港库存54.6万吨，较上周期下降3.9万吨，环比下降6.7%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年6月26日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存135.2万吨，较上周下降0.6万吨，环比下降0.4%。本周期青岛港库存 周期内呈现窄幅去库的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年6月26日，中国纸浆高栏港库存13.8万吨，较上周下降1.8万吨，环比下降11.5%。本周期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a narrow inventory accumulation trend. After the suspension of needle pulp warehousing, it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 24, 2025, SP2601 futures price was 5350, down 2.27% day - on - day and up 2.33% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5130, down 2.25% day - on - day and 1.72% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5136, down 2.69% day - on - day and 1.50% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6000, down 0.83% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 2.83% day - on - day and 1.90% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, down 1.22% day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged. Import costs were also unchanged [1] Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, down 30.80% [1] - Domestic production: broadleaf pulp production on June 19, 2025 was 20.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 19.9 tons [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 220.8 tons, up 2.3 tons from the previous period, a 1.1% increase [1] - Delivery warehouse inventory on June 19, 2025 was 23.53 tons [1] Demand - Output of finished paper decreased this week. Double - offset paper output was 19.50 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; toilet paper was 27.40 tons; white cardboard was 29.50 tons [1] Valuation Data - On June 24, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 14, with a quantile level of 0.739; the basis of Silver Star was 864, with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - Import profit: coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 46, with a quantile level of 0.53; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537, with a quantile level of 0.188 [1] Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Chilean Arauco announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (limited quantity); natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged [1] - Demand side: The output of major finished paper decreased this week, and the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/6/11 | | | | 农产品研究中心 | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年6月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年6月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5282 | -0. 26% | 0. 84% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6150 | 0. 00% | -0. 81% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5376 | -0. 33% | 1. 36% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5350 | 0. 00% | -0. 93% | | | SP2509 | 5284 | -0. 11% | 1. 19% | | 阔叶浆 ...

世界500强投资企业 | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/16 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年5月15日 | HMAL | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月15日 | 日十六十 HM.N. | 周环比 | | | SP2505 | 5370 | 0. 71% | 4. 80% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6300 | 0. 00% | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5386 | 0. 15% | 4.62% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5450 | 2. 83% | 4. 81% | | | SP2509 | 5318 | 0. 19% ...