Core Viewpoint - The price of down jackets is expected to surge due to rising raw material costs, with white duck down prices increasing significantly from 170,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan per ton, and goose down reaching 980,000 yuan per ton [1] Price Trends - As of November 25, 2023, the prices for white duck down are as follows: 95% down at 637.25 yuan/kg, 90% down at 564.06 yuan/kg, and 85% down at 521.22 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.85% and a year-on-year increase of over 13% [1][3] - Grey duck down has seen a price increase of 16% year-on-year [1] - For goose down, the prices are: 95% down at 1065.65 yuan/kg, 90% down at 943.26 yuan/kg, and 85% down at 871.62 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.51% but a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3][4] Cost Structure - The cost of down jackets is primarily determined by down, fabric, accessories, and labor costs, with down costs being the most transparent [1] - The actual cost of down after processing can reach at least 1 yuan per gram, leading to significant production costs for manufacturers [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for down jackets is influenced by seasonal factors and external trade, with a notable increase in foreign trade demand observed in November 2023 [5] - The average price of down jackets in China has risen from 438.6 yuan in 2015 to 656 yuan in 2020, and in 2023, the average selling price ranges from 500 yuan to 800 yuan [5] Future Projections - The market is expected to see further price increases in down jackets due to high winter demand and pre-holiday stocking, with high-end goose down prices projected to remain between 1300-1400 yuan/kg by late 2025 to early 2026 [6] - The price of washed duck down is anticipated to fluctuate between 550-580 yuan/kg, influenced by domestic poultry farming cycles and import adjustments [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant price increase of down jackets due to rising raw material costs, particularly duck down and goose down, which have surged since October [2][4][6]. Price Trends - Duck down prices have skyrocketed, with 90% white duck down reaching approximately 580,000 yuan per ton, up from 170,000 yuan [4]. - Goose down prices are now around 980,000 yuan per ton [4]. - As of November 19, the price for 90% white duck down was 559.32 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while 90% gray duck down was priced at 541.94 yuan per kilogram, up 9.58% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The down processing industry typically experiences a seasonal price increase during autumn, known as "golden September and silver October" [6]. - The decline in pork prices has led to reduced duck and goose production, contributing to the scarcity of down and subsequent price hikes [6]. - Extreme cold weather this winter could further exacerbate the price increases in down products [6]. Cost Structure - The cost of raw materials for a down jacket filled with 90% white duck down and 150 grams of filling ranges from 63 to 82.5 yuan, leading to a core cost of 126 to 247.5 yuan [8]. - The reasonable selling price of such a jacket is unlikely to be below 300 yuan when considering additional costs [8]. Consumer Guidance - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding key indicators when purchasing down jackets, such as down content, filling amount, and compliance with the new national standard (GB/T 14272-2021) [12][13]. - Consumers are advised to check for the down content percentage, with higher percentages indicating better warmth [17]. - The filling amount (in grams) is crucial for determining the jacket's insulation effectiveness [18].

Price Trends - Downstream demand for down products has surged, with prices increasing since October. As of November 19, the price for 90% white duck down reached 559.32 RMB per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while 90% grey duck down was priced at 541.94 RMB per kilogram, up 9.58% year-on-year [1] - The price of 90% white duck down has escalated from 170,000 RMB per ton to approximately 580,000 RMB, while goose down is now priced at 980,000 RMB per ton. The cost of producing a short adult down jacket has risen significantly, requiring down from about 100 ducks, pushing factory prices close to 1,000 RMB [1] Market Dynamics - The down processing industry experiences a seasonal peak in demand during autumn, leading to continuous price increases. This year's price surge is attributed not only to seasonal demand but also to the decline in pork prices, which affects the profitability of duck and goose farmers, leading to reduced production and consequently higher down prices [1] - If extreme cold weather occurs this winter, it is likely that down prices will continue to rise [1] Consumer Insights - A recent discussion highlighted that consumers are struggling to find genuine down jackets priced below 300 RMB, with some retailers claiming that such low-priced items are not made from real down [5] - According to the China Down Industry Association, the price for standard 90% white duck down ranges from 420 RMB to 550 RMB per kilogram, while white goose down is priced between 840 RMB and 1,200 RMB per kilogram. The core cost of a down jacket filled with 150 grams of 90% white duck down is estimated to be between 126 RMB and 247.5 RMB, indicating that a reasonable selling price for such products cannot be below 300 RMB [5]