热卷2505合约

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螺纹、热卷2505合约交割报告
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:14
Report Summary - The settlement price of the rebar 2505 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to weak demand and continuous profits at the production end [2][4]. - The settlement price of the hot - rolled coil 2505 contract was 3262 yuan/ton, also at a discount to the spot price, with the basis at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery [2][18]. Rebar 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Basis - The rebar 2505 contract settlement price was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount of 124 and 218 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. Weak demand and production - end profits led to short - selling in the futures market. The real - estate demand contraction affected terminal consumption, and there was hedging motivation due to good steel mill profits [2][4]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The total settlement volume was 57,300 tons, lower than expected and down from the previous year, at a moderately high level in recent years. The impact on the market was expected to be limited. Buyers were willing to take delivery due to low inventory and a strong basis, but their positions were scattered. Sellers were mainly production and trading enterprises for hedging and basis trading [6]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The rebar 5 - 10 spread remained low and stable, dragged down by real - estate demand. The 3 - month high - frequency data showed a large year - on - year decline in weekly demand. By May 15, the 5 - 10 spread was - 43 yuan/ton. Low inventory reduced delivery pressure, and arbitrage drove the transfer of warehouse receipts to the spot market, affecting the near - month contract price and the inter - delivery spread [14]. Hot - Rolled Coil 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Spot Basis - The hot - rolled coil 2505 contract settlement price was 3262 yuan/ton, at a discount of 18 and 68 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. The basis was at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery due to the phased premium structure, high production, and export expectation disturbances [18]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The settlement volume of the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract was 155,100 tons, an obvious increase from the HC2405 contract, still at a moderately high level in the past 10 years. The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu [22]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage structure. High production, trade - war - induced contraction in the cold - hot spread, and expectations of export and domestic - demand contraction led to the far - month contract being stronger. After entering the delivery month, positive Sino - US negotiations led to a small repair of the 5 - 10 spread, but it remained at a low level in recent years [30].