1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for cross - period, after maintenance returns, focus on PL01 - 02 short - spread trading opportunities at high levels; no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of propylene remains relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and the increase in new production capacity. The demand is supported at the bottom in the short term but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost side has support due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of international oil prices and external propane prices [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][8][10] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB, Japan's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][38] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [41][43][46][55][57][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure is still relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and new production capacity. The demand is mainly driven by short - term pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream factories, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has also weakened [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It involves figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Temporary shutdown of Binhuahua device led to a short - term tightening of propylene supply, causing a slight increase in spot prices in the main regions. However, there are expectations of restarting Binhuahua and Tianhong PDH devices and releasing new production capacity, so there is still pressure of loose supply [2] - Demand side: Some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, and there is an expectation of recovery for Kaitai acrylic acid. Downstream demand has staged support, and the overall downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but its sustainability is doubtful during the traditional off - season [2] - Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and geopolitical instability still exists [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report shows the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is presented [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Weak and oscillating; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoint - Although the crude oil price was strong this week, its boost to the LPG market was limited. The price trends of domestic and foreign LPG were relatively flat, and the market lacked driving forces. The supply was sufficient, while the demand was weak, especially in the civil sector, and the growth space for deep - processing was limited [1] Market Analysis - On July 10, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4610; Northeast market, 4160 - 4330; North China market, 4425 - 4650; East China market, 4380 - 4650; Yangtze River market, 4570 - 4690; Northwest market, 4050 - 4350; South China market, 4570 - 4700 [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of propane in East China was 577 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of propane in South China was 577 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - The prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River region decreased yesterday, while other regions remained stable. Overseas supply was abundant, and domestic commercial volume increased, with overall sufficient supply. Civil demand was in the off - season and remained low. PDH profit in deep - processing recovered, and the load increased, but the growth space was limited [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post carbon four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, and the closing prices, month - to - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market has a solid short - term support, with the spot market showing a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient, and the increase in rainfall in the south will limit project construction and terminal demand, restricting the market's upward space. The supply - demand weakness pattern continues, but due to the low pressure on regional traders at the beginning of the month, the average domestic asphalt price has increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On June 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3482 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 95984 lots, down 4606 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 196526 lots, down 98818 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3780 - 4091 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3470 - 3870 yuan/ton; South China, 3410 - 3450 yuan/ton; East China, 3530 - 3620 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, North China, and East China markets rose yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. - The supply - demand weakness pattern of asphalt continues. The rigid demand for asphalt is generally poor, but due to the low shipment pressure of regional traders at the beginning of the month, the willingness to hold prices is strong, leading to an increase in the average domestic asphalt price. Currently, the increase in market supply is limited, and both the overall operating rate and inventory are at low levels, resulting in limited market pressure and a solid short - term support. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation [2]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary - The settlement price of the rebar 2505 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to weak demand and continuous profits at the production end [2][4]. - The settlement price of the hot - rolled coil 2505 contract was 3262 yuan/ton, also at a discount to the spot price, with the basis at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery [2][18]. Rebar 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Basis - The rebar 2505 contract settlement price was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount of 124 and 218 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. Weak demand and production - end profits led to short - selling in the futures market. The real - estate demand contraction affected terminal consumption, and there was hedging motivation due to good steel mill profits [2][4]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The total settlement volume was 57,300 tons, lower than expected and down from the previous year, at a moderately high level in recent years. The impact on the market was expected to be limited. Buyers were willing to take delivery due to low inventory and a strong basis, but their positions were scattered. Sellers were mainly production and trading enterprises for hedging and basis trading [6]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The rebar 5 - 10 spread remained low and stable, dragged down by real - estate demand. The 3 - month high - frequency data showed a large year - on - year decline in weekly demand. By May 15, the 5 - 10 spread was - 43 yuan/ton. Low inventory reduced delivery pressure, and arbitrage drove the transfer of warehouse receipts to the spot market, affecting the near - month contract price and the inter - delivery spread [14]. Hot - Rolled Coil 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Spot Basis - The hot - rolled coil 2505 contract settlement price was 3262 yuan/ton, at a discount of 18 and 68 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. The basis was at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery due to the phased premium structure, high production, and export expectation disturbances [18]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The settlement volume of the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract was 155,100 tons, an obvious increase from the HC2405 contract, still at a moderately high level in the past 10 years. The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu [22]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage structure. High production, trade - war - induced contraction in the cold - hot spread, and expectations of export and domestic - demand contraction led to the far - month contract being stronger. After entering the delivery month, positive Sino - US negotiations led to a small repair of the 5 - 10 spread, but it remained at a low level in recent years [30].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On March 24, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4740 - 4820 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4430 - 4510 yuan/ton, North China market 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton, East China market 4950 - 5150 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 5120 - 5230 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4650 - 4880 yuan/ton, South China market 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of April 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated cargo in East China were propane at 618 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 608 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4884 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) and butane at 4805 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton); in South China, propane was 614 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 604 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4852 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) and butane at 4773 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) [1] - The mainstream transaction price in the South China civil gas market yesterday was 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton, up from the previous working day. The small quantity of major refineries supported the price increase. The refinery in Beihai, Guangxi is about to undergo maintenance, with a small quantity and little sales pressure, and some low - priced products had more sales than production. The mainstream transaction price in the Pearl River Delta imported gas market was 5060 - 5120 yuan/ton. There were many arriving ships at the import terminals, the market supply was relatively abundant, and the low - price shipments were acceptable [1] - The PG futures price has rebounded continuously recently. After the cancellation of the March warehouse receipts, the upward resistance in the market will be reduced, but the fundamentals may lack continuous driving force [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2]