目录 纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——供应高位检修有限 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021 ...

近年来，我国钢铁行业发展面临一定压力，钢企纷纷探索利用期货工具进行价格风险管理，并参与交割 以拓展销售渠道。其中，西北地区钢企长期受制于区域内交割库的缺失，只得将货物拉到东部沿海仓库 进行交易。如此"千里送货"的局面抬高了企业物流成本，不利于西北钢铁行业转型升级。 在上海期货交易所和行业各方的共同努力下，2024年12月，中储股份西安物流中心获批成为热轧卷板期 货交割仓库，成为我国西北地区首个钢材交割库。半年多过去，这座交割库运行情况如何？对当地钢铁 行业发展发挥了哪些作用？上海证券报记者近期进行了实地调研。 家门口有了交割库 面对产业诉求，上期所多次赴西北地区开展调研，积极拓展交割库布局。2024年12月，中储股份西安物 流中心获批成为热轧卷板期货交割库，核定库容3万吨，填补了西北地区交割基础设施的空白。 中储西安物流中心总经理范国利列出一系列数据：自交割库设立以来，累计生成热轧卷板标准仓单17 张，对应重量5100吨。2025年2月25日，首批"包钢"牌热轧卷板标准仓单生成；2月27日，"天铁"牌热轧 卷板标准仓单生成。 作为首家入驻西安交割库的钢企，包钢集团铁盈投资有限公司综合部部长佐德林讲述了三点初衷 ...

Group 1: Report Introduction - Report title: Urea 2507 Contract Delivery Analysis [1] - Release date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Haizheng Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Delivery Information Summary - Urea 07 contract has undergone 6 deliveries since listing, with the contract in Henan and Hebei mainly at a discount to the spot [2][7] - UR2507 contract delivery settlement price is 1748 yuan/ton, with a Henan spot premium of 92 yuan/ton and a Hebei spot premium of 42 yuan/ton, and the basis is within a reasonable range [2][7] - UR2507 delivery pairing is about 1310 lots, with a nominal delivery volume of about 26,200 tons, an increase of about 791 lots compared to the 2506 contract and 1096 lots compared to last year's 07 contract [2][13] Group 3: Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - This year's warehouse receipt volume is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, but it has gradually declined in recent months, and the enterprise selling pressure has eased [3][16] - As of the last trading day in July, the urea warehouse receipt volume is about 2630, a decrease of 3292 compared to the 2506 contract and an increase of 1562 compared to the 2407 contract [3][16] - UR2507 contract warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings and Zhongnong Holdings, with Yuntu Holdings accounting for the highest proportion at about 36.5% [3][19] - In terms of provincial distribution, Sichuan has the largest warehouse receipt volume, accounting for about 37%, followed by Hebei and Anhui [3][19] - Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 96% of the total [3][19] - Sellers' seats are relatively concentrated, with Changjiang Futures accounting for the highest proportion at about 43%, followed by Yide Futures at about 34% [21] - Buyers' seats are more dispersed, with Guotai Junan accounting for the largest proportion at about 23%, followed by Guotou Futures and Yong'an Futures at about 15% [21] Group 4: Later Assessment - The UR2507&2509 spread mainly shows a narrowing trend, with limited arbitrage space [4] - The UR2509&2601 spread is mainly based on the reverse arbitrage logic in the short term, and the space for further narrowing is also limited [4] Group 5: Historical Data Analysis - The delivery volume of the main contracts is large and stable, while that of non - main contracts is relatively low [10] - This year's delivery volume of each contract is higher than the same period in history, and the delivery volume in the first and second quarters has increased significantly [10] - It is estimated that the delivery volume in the second half of the year is expected to further increase [10] Group 6: Basis and Arbitrage Analysis - This year's basis in Henan for the urea 07 contract is weaker than the same period last year, and there was basis discount in some periods [24] - The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, with limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities [25] - In the medium and long term, as the urea market remains loose, enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery may increase [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of lumber futures in China aims to mitigate price volatility risks faced by timber enterprises, particularly in the context of high dependence on imports and fluctuating demand from the construction industry [1][2]. Market Overview - The real estate market's cyclical downturn has significantly impacted the demand for construction timber, leading to a nearly 48% decrease in the import volume of softwood logs from 49.88 million cubic meters in 2021 to 26.12 million cubic meters in 2024 [2]. - Increased environmental awareness has shifted the demand structure in the timber market, with industries like furniture manufacturing favoring sustainable wood options [2]. - Price volatility has exacerbated operational challenges for timber enterprises, complicating cost control for importers and squeezing profit margins for processing companies [2]. Measurement Standards - There are inconsistencies in measurement standards across different regions in China, leading to discrepancies in the volume of timber between futures and spot markets [3]. - The northern and southern markets have different practices regarding timber length and diameter measurements, which can affect pricing and cost estimation for downstream processing companies [3]. Futures Hedging Cases - Case 1: A timber processing company successfully executed a "futures to spot" transaction, allowing them to secure raw material supply and control procurement costs by facilitating early delivery of timber [4][5]. - Case 2: A large timber trading company utilized futures to hedge against price declines, locking in a sales price of 865.5 yuan per cubic meter for their timber, thus avoiding potential losses from market depreciation [6][8]. Implementation and Training - The futures company provided tailored training and support to clients, including risk assessments and mock delivery exercises, to enhance their understanding of the delivery process and compliance [7]. - A detailed delivery plan was developed for the trading company, considering various costs associated with delivery, which helped streamline the process and reduce storage costs [7]. Conclusion - The successful completion of the first lumber futures delivery marks a significant step towards maturity in the market, emphasizing the need for industry participants to adopt standardized practices and a hedging mindset to navigate price fluctuations effectively [8].

Core Insights - The event "Stabilizing Enterprises and Protecting Agriculture - Apple Futures Serving Small and Medium Enterprises" was successfully held in Yan'an, Shaanxi, organized by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and China Futures Association, focusing on risk management applications in the apple market [1] - The conference attracted 84 representatives from 62 enterprises, providing practical solutions for small and medium-sized apple enterprises through keynote speeches and case analyses [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Meng Xianqiang, Director of Agricultural Product Research, discussed the research logic of apple futures in an economic downturn, emphasizing the non-linear demand price elasticity and its role in price dynamics during inventory adjustments [3] - The core logic of apple market analysis is based on the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand for elastic consumer goods, where the price center is primarily determined by quantity [3] Group 2: Delivery and Processing - Zhang Zhaohua, Deputy General Manager of Yanchang Fruit Industry, shared experiences in the application of machine selection processing for apple futures delivery, highlighting the increasing delivery volume and the challenges in quality grading and standardization [5] - The use of advanced machine selection equipment has achieved a 100% delivery success rate, suggesting the need for optimized industry chain collaboration and standardized production training [5] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Zhao Xiaojie, Manager of the Futures Department at Yanchang Fruit Industry, outlined strategies for using futures tools to serve small and medium enterprises, emphasizing the importance of hedging against price volatility [7] - The core value of futures tools is to help enterprises lock in profits, smooth cash flow, and enhance risk resistance, rather than serving as speculative instruments [7] Group 4: Futures Delivery Process - Li Weiwei, a delivery specialist at Rongda Futures, explained the strict processes and standards of futures delivery, which help enterprises effectively manage production plans and control delivery costs [9] Group 5: Options Trading - Yan Yaping, a derivatives researcher at Shanghai Rongzhi Industrial Co., Ltd., introduced four basic strategies for options trading and their applications in the operations of small and medium-sized apple enterprises, highlighting the advantages of options over futures [10] - The collaboration between Rongda Futures and Yanchang Fruit Industry aims to enhance financial services for the real economy, supporting the high-quality development of the apple industry [10]

Core Points - The first batch of log futures delivery was successfully completed, with a total of 14 contracts and 1260 cubic meters delivered at a settlement price of 815.5 yuan per cubic meter [1] - Various companies participated in the delivery process, ensuring quality and compliance with standards [2][3][4] Group 1: Delivery Process - The delivery involved multiple locations, with 5 contracts completed in Rizhao and 9 in Taicang, highlighting the logistical coordination required [1] - Companies like Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry successfully locked in raw material costs through hedging and received high-quality logs, which improved their processing efficiency [2] - Jiangsu Yaohua Logistics confirmed the quality of their logs and noted the advantages of cash settlement in reducing disputes related to quality and pricing [3] Group 2: Preparation and Training - Companies prepared extensively for the delivery, including staff training and quality checks, to ensure compliance with delivery standards [4][5] - Futures companies provided targeted support and training to clients, enhancing their operational capabilities and understanding of the delivery process [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The successful completion of the first delivery marks a significant step for log futures, but industry participants are encouraged to deepen their understanding of contract rules and adopt hedging principles [7] - The introduction of national standards as a pricing benchmark is expected to enhance the connection between futures and spot markets, promoting high-quality development in the industry [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market's mainstream expectation is that the pure benzene market will marginally improve, but remain weak in the second half of the year. With PX being strong, there is still room for BZ valuation to decline, and the overall outlook is bearish. However, from a long - term allocation perspective, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, there may be opportunities for light - position trial long trades [2] - The supply reduction of pure benzene is difficult, and the driving force for its valuation repair usually comes from the demand side. The weighted demand growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5 - 5.5%. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the second half of the year is slightly better than that in the first half, but it will still be in a balanced to slightly inventory - building state if there are no unexpected factors in terminal demand [19][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Futures Contract Points Interpretation - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange starting from 09:00 on July 8, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, BZ2606. The daily price limit is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% of the listing benchmark price on the first trading day. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and 0.005% for hedging transactions [11] - The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons per lot, much larger than that of styrene futures. The ratio for hedging with styrene can be set at 1:6 or 1:7.5. The last trading day and the last delivery day are the same as those of styrene contracts. The main contracts of pure benzene are expected to change monthly continuously, different from PX's 1/5/9 main contracts, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of far - month contracts [12] 2. Key Points of Pure Benzene Delivery Rules - The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures announced by DCE is consistent with the current national standard (GB/T 3405 - 2025), and coal - based hydrogenated benzene can also participate in delivery. The crystallization point requirement is ≥5.45°C [16] - The delivery area has been expanded from East China to South China, North China, and Northeast China. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark delivery areas, Shandong has a discount of 50 yuan per ton, and South China has no premium or discount [17] - Pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are cancelled monthly to align with the characteristics of the spot market [18] 3. Strategy Suggestions for the First Listing Day of Pure Benzene - **Absolute Price Dimension**: Based on the Singapore Exchange's far - month contracts, the price of pure benzene in East China in March next year is estimated to be around 5900 yuan per ton. Calculated by the current spot price in East China plus the far - month paper - cargo premium structure, the far - month price may be around 6000 - 6100 yuan per ton, but there may be a discount between the futures price and the East China price. In the long - term, if the distal BZN drops to $50 - 115 per ton, light - position trial long trades can be considered [2][22] - **Internal - External Arbitrage**: Considering the different delivery systems of the Singapore Exchange (cash settlement) and DCE (physical delivery), opportunities for long Singapore Exchange pure benzene and short DCE pure benzene can be explored [2][23] - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage in the Industrial Chain**: The median spread corresponding to the break - even point of non - integrated styrene plants is 1300 yuan per ton. Without a squeeze, the 2603 EB - BZ spread may range from 1100 to 1500 yuan per ton [3][23]

Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has announced the addition of new designated warehouses and inspection institutions for log futures, enhancing the service quality for the timber industry [1] - After the additions, the number of designated warehouses for log futures will increase to 8, with a maximum standard warehouse receipt volume of 445,500 cubic meters and a daily shipping speed of 29,700 cubic meters [1] - The expansion aims to improve delivery efficiency and safety, providing better conditions for enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu, the main import and consumption areas for logs [1] Group 2 - Four designated inspection institutions will utilize a "machine + manual" measurement method for log inspection, significantly improving inspection speed and accuracy [2] - The DCE has organized eight simulation delivery sessions across various regions to ensure smooth delivery processes and has encouraged warehouses to standardize and mechanize delivery management [2] - The DCE is also conducting assessments of delivery capabilities and enhancing the functionality of delivery apps to bolster safety and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The log futures market is still in its early stages, and there is room for improvement in market maturity and industry understanding [3] - Timber companies are encouraged to familiarize themselves with futures market rules and engage in hedging and delivery activities to promote high-quality development of the log spot market [3]

根据大商所相关规则，原木期货合约适用期转现交割、每日选择交割和一次性交割。 具体来看，每日选择交割是指在交割月第1个交易日至最后交易日的前1个交易日，由持有交割月净持仓 为卖方的客户主动提出交割申请，并由交易所组织匹配买卖双方，且在规定时间内完成交割的方式。 原木装载至货主或者车板交割买方的运输工具，即完成原木交付，实现货物交收及货权转移。原木毁 损、灭失的风险，在交付之前由厂库或车板交割卖方承担，在交付之后由货主或车板交割买方承担。 原木期货交割区域包括山东省、河北省、天津市、江苏省、福建省、广东省、广西壮族自治区、海南省 和重庆市，其中山东省为基准交割地。各地区所设指定交割仓库、指定车板交割场所的升贴水分别为： 山东省、河北省、天津市、江苏省、福建省、广东省、广西壮族自治区、海南省为0元/立方米，重庆市 为100元/立方米。 目前，在原木期货上，大商所共设立了7家指定交割仓库（均为厂库）和7家指定车板交割场所，分别位 于山东省、江苏省、福建省、广东省、广西壮族自治区、重庆市等六地，其中包括国内主要的原木进口 港口和大型贸易商，并且确定了两家指定质检机构。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 一次性交割是指在合约最后 ...