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(J&J):20260312申万期货品种策略日报-双焦-20260312
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 05:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last night, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend, and the total position of coking coal was basically flat compared with the previous period. Last week, coking coal production continued to increase, the supply of coking coal continued to increase, and the iron - water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection restrictions in many places, resulting in a weakening of the rigid demand for coking coal. The inventory of clean coal in mines increased, and the inventory of coking coal downstream decreased, and its fundamentals weakened. It is expected that with the advancement of resumption of work and production, the iron - water production will significantly increase, driving the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke and providing support for coal prices. The repeated geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities. The future market should focus on the trend of iron - water production, mine operation, and geopolitical situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 1461.5, 1144.5, and 1247.5 respectively, with increases of 1.70%, 2.05%, and 2.38% compared to the previous two days. The previous day's closing prices of coke contracts in January, May, and September were 1887.5, 1718.0, and 1793.5 respectively, with increases of 2.03%, 2.23%, and 2.11% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 2717, 679845, and 63196 respectively, and the open interests were 14901, 407283, and 110769 respectively. The trading volumes of coke contracts in January, May, and September were 54, 15503, and 1042 respectively, and the open interests were 1518, 32488, and 3966 respectively. The changes in open interests of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 28, - 17889, and 1977 respectively, and those of coke contracts were 26, - 510, and 46 respectively [1] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of coking coal contracts (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5. The current price spreads of coke contracts (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 [1] Spot Market Data - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Mongolian 5 coking coal (port self - pickup price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur fat coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan first - grade coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (warehouse - out price) were 1175, 1450, 1373, 1800, 1280, and 1470 respectively. The changes in spot prices were 0, - 10, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [1] Automobile Industry Data - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. In February, automobile exports were 672,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [1]
20260122申万期货品种策略日报:双焦(JM&J)-20260122
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 05:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a weak trend in the night session yesterday, and the total open interest of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream's seasonal increase in pre - holiday rigid demand for restocking can support coal prices, so it is judged that the short - term decline of the futures market is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in hot metal production, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: For coking coal futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1366.5, 1129.0, and 1203.0 respectively, with price changes of 5.0, 1.0, and - 0.5 and price change rates of 0.07%, 0.44%, and - 0.04% compared to the day before. For coke futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1872.0, 1683.5, and 1758.5 respectively, with price changes of 12.0, 10.0, and 10.0 and price change rates of 0.65%, 0.60%, and 0.57% compared to the day before [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal futures for the January, May, and September contracts were 2093, 864680, and 43683 respectively, and the open interests were 3326, 515444, and 79074 respectively. The changes in open interest were 882, - 17288, and 684 respectively. For coke futures, the trading volumes of the January, May, and September contracts were 19, 14616, and 632 respectively, and the open interests were 82, 38358, and 1438 respectively. The changes in open interest were 15, - 71, and - 55 respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1]. Spot Market Data - **Prices and Changes**: The port self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking coal was 1234, the ex - factory price in Linfen was 1640, the rail - side price in Taiyuan was 1530, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Grade I coke was 1800, the ex - factory price of Jinzhong Quasi - Grade I coke was 1280, and the warehouse price of a certain grade was 1450. The changes in spot prices were 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [1]. Industry News and Market Analysis - **Real Estate Policy**: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized making good use of the urban regulatory autonomy, adhering to the policy of implementing measures according to the city, and giving play to the role of the "white list" system for real estate financing to support reasonable demand and promote the stable operation of the market [1]. - **Steel Production and Inventory**: According to Steel Valley data, the current national building materials production was basically flat month - on - month, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly month - on - month. The total inventory of building materials continued to increase month - on - month, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was basically flat month - on - month. The apparent demand for both decreased slightly month - on - month. Last week, the hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the profitability rate of sample steel mills increased month - on - month [1].
双焦情绪支撑转弱,后市能否继续看多?
news flash· 2025-07-31 12:44
Core Viewpoint - The sentiment supporting the dual焦 (coking coal and coke) market has weakened, leading to a decline in prices after a period of significant increases driven by policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Both coking coal and coke experienced declines, with multiple coking coal contracts hitting an 8% limit down [1] - The previous bullish sentiment, which had driven prices to consecutive limit ups, has diminished following the realization of macroeconomic policies [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current supply and demand fundamentals for dual焦 remain healthy in the short term, providing some support for prices [1] - A significant downward movement in prices is considered unlikely due to the resilient fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent price corrections, the market is expected to continue experiencing volatility due to emotional disturbances [1] - Future macroeconomic policies will be crucial to monitor, as they may create new positive expectations for the market [1]