黑色板块研发报告 双焦 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 双焦：矛盾不突出，关注国际煤炭市场扰动 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 期货 第 1 页 共 19 页 双焦 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 页 黑色板块研发报告 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 炼焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 双焦 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 黑色板块研发报告 图 5：蒙 5 精煤-口岸 单位：元/吨 图 4：中硫主焦煤价格 单位：元/吨 800 1300 1800 2300 2800 3300 3800 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 中硫主焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 第 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - Steel market shows simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating weakly due to pre - holiday inventory growth and lack of raw material drive [1] - Iron ore market has a large supply - demand contradiction, with port inventory slightly decreasing and iron water output rising. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact [3] - Coking coal and coke markets have a quiet trading atmosphere before the holiday. Coke prices are expected to oscillate with cost fluctuations, and coking coal prices are expected to be stable with narrow adjustments [5][6] - Thermal coal market has limited trading volume, with prices rising slightly due to supply contraction and expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday, but may face pressure after the holiday [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel oscillated downward. This week, steel demand dropped significantly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The output of the five major steel products was 794100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25800 tons. The inventory was 1.4427 million tons, with an inventory accumulation of 105000 tons (last week's inventory accumulation was 59000 tons). The apparent demand was 689100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71600 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. Before the holiday, the construction material terminal is stagnant, and the rebar price is weak. The plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot - rolled coils. The steel inventory continues to grow before the holiday, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. With weak raw material drive, steel prices will oscillate weakly. Later, attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 330490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1910 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports was 169.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 million tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, non - mainstream shipments remain high at high ore prices, and global shipments decline seasonally, with port inventory slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output has increased slightly. After steel mills complete replenishment, the support for raw material prices is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is still large. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact. Later, attention should be paid to iron ore inventory changes and negotiation progress [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The trading atmosphere of coking coal was quiet before the holiday, and the price decreased slightly. The spot price of coke was relatively stable, and most steel mills had completed inventory replenishment. This week, coking coal inventory decreased significantly, and coke inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment. Before the holiday, coking plants adjust production independently, and the price is expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the molten iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand maintains resilience. After downstream replenishment is completed, speculative demand shrinks. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines stop production and take holidays one after another, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal is relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with narrow adjustments before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, most private coal mines are on holiday, and supply further shrinks. In the port area, most traders are on holiday, and market trading is light. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern remains unchanged [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also on holiday, so both supply and demand are weak. Affected by supply in the import market, the price of domestic coal continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the Indonesian supply will recover later. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably and slightly strongly. After the holiday, when coal mine supply recovers and the peak season is approaching the end, coal prices may face pressure [7]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260213 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美股科技抛售加剧，A 股延续分化修复 海外方面，1 月 CPI 发布前夕，市场避险情绪明显升温。围绕人工智能可能引发行业结 构性重塑的担忧加剧，部分资金出现阶段性"反 AI 交易"，一方面担忧 AI 对传统软件与部 分科技子行业形成盈利挤压，另一方面对企业大规模 AI 投入的回报确定性产生疑虑，进而 放大了科技板块的抛售压力，风险偏好快速收缩下，跨资产同步承压：纳指跌超 2%，黄金 下挫逾 3%，白银跌幅超过 10%，铜、油回落超 2%，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.1%。当前市场 仍处于高波动环境，今日重点关注美国 1 月 CPI 数据发布。 国内方面，在中美两国元首预计 4 月会晤及特朗普拟访华背景下，美方暂缓多项针对中 国的关键技术与安全限制措施（涵盖电信、网络设备及新能源商用车等领域），双方就高层 互访保持沟通。春节假期前处于经济数据与政策真空期，A 股周四延续震荡分化格局。中小 盘与成长风格相对占优，科创 50、中证 500 收涨，而沪深 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, potentially under pressure after the holiday [7] 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with prices slightly fluctuating. The overall contradiction is not prominent, but the pre - holiday inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly rising [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of cautious waiting, with prices oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the support from raw material prices is weakening [3]. - The downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke is completed, and the trading atmosphere is dull. The prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday [5][6]. - The output of thermal coal is continuously shrinking, and the price lacks driving force. The pre - holiday price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and may face pressure after the holiday [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot prices were generally stable. This week, the inventory accumulation of building materials continued to increase, and the plate inventory also rose. The output of building materials decreased significantly, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Before the holiday, the production and sales of building materials declined simultaneously. The short - process production suspension scale increased, and the inventory continued to grow. The demand for plates was relatively stable, but the high inventory restricted the price space of hot - rolled coils. Overall, the pre - holiday inventory of steel continued to increase, the supply - demand pressure increased slightly, and the raw material prices weakened. The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the margin increase and position reduction before the holiday may affect the market fluctuations [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume at major domestic ports was 238,000 tons, a 57.21% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 380,000 tons (5 transactions), a 45.32% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, the non - mainstream shipments remained high at high ore prices, and the global shipment volume decreased seasonally. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the iron ore consumption increased slightly month - on - month. The port inventory of iron ore continued to increase, and as the steel mills' replenishment was nearing completion, the support from raw material prices weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to deepen, and if the port liquidity factors were removed, the port supply would cause a great impact [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a bearish bias; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated within a narrow range. For coking coal, as the holiday approached, coal mines successively announced production suspension and holiday plans, and downstream procurement slowed down or stopped, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. For coke, the spot price was relatively stable. After the first price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises gradually recovered. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply increased slightly recently. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling. As the holiday approached, coking plants adjusted their production independently, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the pig iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and the rigid demand for coking coal remained resilient. As the downstream replenishment was nearing completion, the speculative demand shrank. As the Spring Festival approached, coal mines successively stopped production for holidays, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal was relieved. The coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable with a narrow - range adjustment [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of production areas, the number of coal mines on holiday in the main production areas continued to increase, and the operating mines were mainly large state - owned mines, with the supply continuously decreasing. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the main transactions were concentrated in long - term contracts, and the pre - holiday price was expected to change little. At ports, the market trading was dull, mainly with long - term contract coal. More traders were on holiday, and basically all had entered the holiday state. Affected by the shortage of imported coal and the rise in domestic prices, sellers were more willing to hold prices. In the import market, the RKAB in Indonesia was not fully implemented, the offers from Indonesian miners were scarce, and the market quotes and tender prices increased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the supply decreased due to coal mine holidays, and downstream factories were also gradually on holiday, so both supply and demand were weak. Affected by the supply in the import market, the price of domestic trade coal continued to rise slightly. Recently, the full approval of RKAB by leading mines in Indonesia was expected, and the approval results of other mines were expected to be announced successively. The supply in Indonesia was expected to recover. Overall, the pre - holiday price increase was limited, and it was expected to run stably with a slight upward trend. After the holiday, as the coal mine supply recovered and the peak season was approaching the end, the coal price may be under pressure [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable to Slightly Bullish [7] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a slack season with prices oscillating weakly. The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent, but poor building material demand, weak downstream purchasing sentiment, and higher seasonal inventory accumulation are suppressing rebar prices. High inventory is also constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils. Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is weak, and prices are oscillating. High prices have led to high non-mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month-on-month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply-demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weak trading, with prices oscillating weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with prices remaining stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. The market is characterized by low activity, with supply and demand both weak. Import coal prices are rising due to supply uncertainties in Indonesia. Before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated downward. On Monday, the rebar inventory in Hangzhou was 79.3 million tons, with an outbound volume of 0.2 million tons, compared to 58.5 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively in the same period last year. Building material demand is poor, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Seasonal inventory accumulation is slightly higher than last year, suppressing rebar prices. Plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory is constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to winter restocking and changes in raw material prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 55.5 million tons, a 13.01% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 69.5 million tons (5 transactions), a 13.93% month - on - month increase (with all transactions from mines) [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: High prices have led to high non - mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month - on - month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock. Later, attention should be paid to changes in iron ore inventories and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. The spot prices of coke in the main production areas and ports are relatively stable, and coke producers' production is relatively stable. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the short term, coke prices are expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, as steel mill hot metal production has recovered, the rigid demand for coking coal remains resilient. However, as downstream restocking nears completion, speculative demand has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are shutting down for the holiday, and Mongolian coal imports will be suspended during the Spring Festival, alleviating the supply pressure on coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, coal prices are expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the festival [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. Before the holiday, prices are expected to change little, and attention should be paid to the recovery of market supply and demand after the holiday. At ports, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream users are on holiday, and terminal daily consumption is continuously declining, resulting in low market activity. Affected by the tightening supply at the mine mouth, market supplies to ports are tight, and port shipments are in a continuous loss - making situation. Currently, the market shows weak supply and demand, and prices remain stable. In the import market, the tender prices of imported coal are continuously rising. Due to uncertainties in the later production policies of Indonesian mines, prices are relatively high [7]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also gradually taking holidays, resulting in weak supply and demand. Affected by supply in the import market, domestic thermal coal prices have maintained a slight upward trend. Recently, the full approval of the RKAB of a leading Indonesian mine is expected, and the approval results of other mines will be announced successively. In the later period, Indonesian supply is expected to recover. Overall, before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7].

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-10 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材盘面震荡下行，现货方面，周末杭州螺纹库存77万吨，螺纹出库1.6万吨，去年同期库存55.5 万吨，出库3.0万吨。钢银数据显示，建材库存季节性增长，卷板库存呈现累库趋势。 供需与逻辑：目前钢材整体矛盾暂未突显，建材需求表现不佳，下游采购情绪偏弱，季节性累库略高于去年，压 制螺纹价格。板材需求相对维稳，然而高库存压制热卷价格空间。总体来说，节前钢材库存持续增长，供需压力 略有加大，叠加原料价格走弱，钢材保持震荡偏弱运行，后期关注冬储补库及原料价格变化。 策略 风险 地缘政治、库存变化、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾加剧，铁矿弱势运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格弱势运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。本期全球铁矿石发运明显回落，全球发运总量2535万吨，环比减少18.1%；本 期45港到港量持续回落，到港总量2361万吨，环比下跌5.0%。 供需与 ...

| | | | | 20260205申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | | | 111 | | | 11 | | | | 9 层 | 1月 | 5月 | | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1445.0 | 1209. 0 | 1281.5 | 1913.0 | 1770.0 | 1831.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1410.0 | 1167.5 | 1245.5 | 1874.0 | 1715.0 | 1784. 0 | | EH | 煮跌 | 35.0 | 41.5 | 36.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 47.5 | | स्त | 煮跌幅 | 2. 48% | 3.55% | 2. 89% | 2. 08% | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a weak trend in the night session yesterday, and the total open interest of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream's seasonal increase in pre - holiday rigid demand for restocking can support coal prices, so it is judged that the short - term decline of the futures market is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in hot metal production, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: For coking coal futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1366.5, 1129.0, and 1203.0 respectively, with price changes of 5.0, 1.0, and - 0.5 and price change rates of 0.07%, 0.44%, and - 0.04% compared to the day before. For coke futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1872.0, 1683.5, and 1758.5 respectively, with price changes of 12.0, 10.0, and 10.0 and price change rates of 0.65%, 0.60%, and 0.57% compared to the day before [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal futures for the January, May, and September contracts were 2093, 864680, and 43683 respectively, and the open interests were 3326, 515444, and 79074 respectively. The changes in open interest were 882, - 17288, and 684 respectively. For coke futures, the trading volumes of the January, May, and September contracts were 19, 14616, and 632 respectively, and the open interests were 82, 38358, and 1438 respectively. The changes in open interest were 15, - 71, and - 55 respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1]. Spot Market Data - **Prices and Changes**: The port self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking coal was 1234, the ex - factory price in Linfen was 1640, the rail - side price in Taiyuan was 1530, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Grade I coke was 1800, the ex - factory price of Jinzhong Quasi - Grade I coke was 1280, and the warehouse price of a certain grade was 1450. The changes in spot prices were 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [1]. Industry News and Market Analysis - **Real Estate Policy**: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized making good use of the urban regulatory autonomy, adhering to the policy of implementing measures according to the city, and giving play to the role of the "white list" system for real estate financing to support reasonable demand and promote the stable operation of the market [1]. - **Steel Production and Inventory**: According to Steel Valley data, the current national building materials production was basically flat month - on - month, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly month - on - month. The total inventory of building materials continued to increase month - on - month, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was basically flat month - on - month. The apparent demand for both decreased slightly month - on - month. Last week, the hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the profitability rate of sample steel mills increased month - on - month [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, black - series commodities showed small fluctuations, with prices generally maintaining a range - bound operation. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, increasing supply. Spot trading improved, and downstream coking enterprises were more active in restocking, leading to a reduction in mine inventories. [4] - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is relatively limited. The performance of downstream finished steel basically conforms to the off - season characteristics, suppressing the raw material end. This week, the main contracts reduced positions by about 22,000 lots, and market divergence decreased. Short - term prices may maintain a range - bound operation. As the current price is close to the lower end of the range and there is still some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to periodic low - price opportunities. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Supply Side**: After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, and the supply of coking coal increased. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 197.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.92 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 76.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42 million tons. The daily average output of sample coal washing plants was 27.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. [20][23] - **Demand Side**: Downstream coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm increased, and the online auction success rate remained high. However, steel mills' restocking enthusiasm was not high, mainly consuming previous inventories. [4] - **Import**: After the holiday, the port clearance volume returned to the previous high level. However, the available resources of Mongolian 5 coking coal were scarce, and the quotation generally rose. The transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to about 1,080 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is between 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton. [7] - **Price**: The price of raw coal rose, deepening the losses of coking enterprises. Some coking enterprises initiated the first price increase, and there may be a second price increase expected. [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different regions. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan is 1,078 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1,229 yuan/ton. [11] - **Coking Coal Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 221, with a week - on - week increase of 114 and a basis rate of 17.90%. [13] - **Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Black Commodity Price Ratio**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Auction Data**: This week, the coking coal listing volume was 146.94 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54.26 million tons, the transaction rate was 85.85%, a week - on - week increase of 16.76%, and the non - transaction rate was 14.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 16.76%. [30] - **Coking Coal Total Inventory**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Coal Inventory Distribution**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions decreased week - on - week. For example, the national coking profit was - 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [39] - **Coke Basis**: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 178, with a week - on - week increase of 52 and a basis rate of 12.05%. [42] - **Coke Month - to - Month Spread**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Supply**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Demand**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Coke Total Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 920.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.31 million tons. [54] - **Coke Inventory Distribution**: The inventory of steel mills was 650.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26 million tons; the port inventory was 188.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons. [54] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: No specific data is provided in the report. - **Futures Positions**: No specific data is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]