燃料油现货

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大越期货燃料油周报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, international crude oil trended downward, and fuel oil prices mostly fluctuated lower. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,709 yuan/ton, down 2.06% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.87% for the week [5]. - Ample supply continues to suppress the fundamental of the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in Singapore. Due to the short - term inventory increase expectation, the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has fallen to the lowest discount level in more than four months. Despite the continuous closure of the arbitrage window for compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore, low - sulfur blending components from the market west of Suez still flow in continuously. Meanwhile, weak downstream demand will continue to suppress the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the immediate supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, which continues to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market, the premium of downstream high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is boosted by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. Additionally, the expected supply reduction from September may support the market [5]. - Next week, international crude oil prices may have room to fluctuate higher, and Singapore fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly following the market. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,800 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - International crude oil and fuel oil price trends last week, and price changes of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - Analysis of supply, demand, and price trends of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets, and trading suggestions for next week [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,823, the current value is 2,730, down 93 or 3.29%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,540, the current value is 3,465, down 76 or 2.14% [6]. - Spot prices: Different types of fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed small price changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 0.19% to 0.40% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Charts show Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 13 shows changes in inventory levels and increases or decreases [12]. - Charts show Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends [13][15]. 3.5 Spread Data - A chart shows the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures [17].
大越期货燃料油周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil showed a volatile trend, and fuel oil prices mainly followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 1.82% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,571 yuan/ton, down 1.16% for the week [5]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken due to sufficient immediate supply. Although the arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore remained closed, a large amount of low - sulfur blending components continued to flow into the Singapore market. Traders were worried about potential inventory accumulation due to short - term oversupply in Singapore [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, sufficient immediate supply and expected increase in arbitrage cargoes continued to suppress the market fundamentals. Weak power generation demand in South Asia this summer hit market sentiment, and traders were concerned that the decline in summer power generation demand might exacerbate the oversupply situation in the coming weeks [5]. - Subsequently, crude oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but fuel oil prices will still face pressure. The suggested operation is to trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,780 - 2,950 yuan/ton range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,500 - 3,650 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 1.82% for the week; low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,571 yuan/ton, down 1.16% for the week. The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil weakened due to sufficient supply, and high - sulfur fuel oil faced pressure from supply and weak power generation demand in South Asia. Suggested trading ranges are 2,780 - 2,950 yuan/ton for high - sulfur and 3,500 - 3,650 yuan/ton for low - sulfur [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract futures price increased from 2,904 to 2,918, up 0.48%. The LU main contract futures price increased from 3,578 to 3,644, up 1.83% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 518.00 to 511.00, down 1.35%, and the price of Singapore diesel increased from 673.24 to 678.02, up 0.71% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Graphs showed the consumption trends of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margin from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: The inventory data from May 14 to July 30 showed fluctuations. For example, on May 14, the inventory was 2,490.9 million barrels with an increase of 78 million barrels, and on July 30, it was 2,027.9 million barrels with an increase of 37 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Spread Data - The graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread showed the relationship between FU and LU [16].