燃机余热锅炉 催生增量蓝海 2026.1 中金研究部 证券分析师： 郭威秀 高端装备 SAC执证编号：S0080120050008 weixiu.guo@cicc.com.cn 0 目录 ◼ 1 北美电力需求激增，燃气发电成最优解 1.1 美国缺电，燃气发电进入高景气 1.2 燃机余热锅炉价值凸显，海外供应商订单积压 ◼ 2 增长驱动：北美AI&电网升级，余热锅炉需求外溢 2.1 2024年全球整体余热回收锅炉78亿美元 2.2 燃机余热锅炉产业链梳理 2.3 燃机余热锅炉厂商竞争依赖体系化能力 ◼ 3 产业重点标的梳理 3.1 西子洁能：国内燃机余热锅炉龙头 3.2 博盈特焊：越南基地投产，进军北美具有先发优势 ◼ 4 风险提示 1 1.1美国缺电，燃气发电进入高景气 2 ◼ 美国数据中心用电需求大幅提升。随着美国人工智能产业的高速迭代，行业普遍认为算力需求即将迎来弹性增长， 增长规模远超历史水平。从历史期看，2010-2020 年美国数据中心累计装机容量从 10GW 增长至 30GW，截至 2024 年末增长至 53.7GW。 ◼ 美国多家机构对 2030 年北美数据中心负荷建设需求的预测区间落在 47- ...

人民财讯1月7日电，中金指出，美国数据中心算力需求爆发叠加传统机组退役，燃气发电成为解决方 案。2025年海外头部厂商的燃气轮机订单量大幅提升，配套余热锅炉排单旺盛。北美燃机余热锅炉认证 壁垒高，海外供应商产能弹性有限。展望2026年，中金认为北美燃机余热锅炉有望量价齐升，关注国产 设备出海窗口。 ...

中金研究 当前，北美电力短缺与AI算力需求爆发形成共振，燃气联合循环电站成为优选，带动燃机余热锅炉需求进入高景气周期。 考虑到北美余热锅炉市场价格上涨超预期及国内企业出海进度提速，我们建议关注下游需求提振带来的设备增量机会。 风险 技术认证与客户拓展不及预期，原材料价格波动，行业竞争加剧。 T正文ext 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 北美燃气轮机缺口 拉大 。 美国数据中心算力需求爆发叠加传统机组退役，燃气发电成为解决方案。2025年海外头部厂商的燃气轮机订单量大幅提升，配 套余热锅炉排单旺盛。北美燃机余热锅炉认证壁垒高，海外供应商产能弹性有限。展望2026年，我们认为北美燃机余热锅炉有望量价齐升，关注国产设备 出海窗口。 全球燃机余热锅炉市场小而美，工程化特征。 根据IMARC Group统计，2024年全球余热回收锅炉市场规模约为78亿美元[1]。其中，燃机余热锅炉利用燃 气轮机排放废气中的热量来产生蒸汽，在燃气联合循环机组单体设备价值量仅次于燃气轮机。燃机余热锅炉属于典型非标工程装备，制造门槛及验证门槛 较高。 国内燃机余热锅炉集中度高。 燃机余热锅炉厂商竞争依赖体系化能力，国内头部具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xizi Clean Energy, is focusing on expanding its market presence in overseas markets, renewable energy and energy storage, and the nuclear power sector to drive future growth [1] Group 1: Overseas Market - The company aims to leverage its advantageous products, such as waste heat boilers, to penetrate international markets and increase its market share [1] - There is a specific focus on expanding the overseas OEM market [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy and Energy Storage Market - The company plans to utilize its core technology in molten salt energy storage to explore applications in various energy utilization scenarios, including concentrated solar power, user-side energy storage, flexible transformation of thermal power, and zero-carbon parks [1] - The user-side energy storage model is expected to become a significant solution for domestic industrial clients to meet steam demand, highlighting the advantages of molten salt storage technology, such as large storage capacity, long lifespan, high safety, low storage cost, environmental friendliness, and wide applicability [1] Group 3: Nuclear Power Market - The company is seizing opportunities in the nuclear power market by upgrading its manufacturing base in Chongxian to establish dedicated clean workshops for nuclear power products [1] - This upgrade aims to enhance the company's manufacturing capacity for nuclear power products, supporting rapid growth in its nuclear power business [1]

Group 1 - The company, Xizi Clean Energy, holds a market share of over 50% in the domestic market, making it a leader in the waste heat boiler industry for gas turbines [2] - Notable projects include the Sun Palace 2×9F level project for the Beijing Olympics, the Guangdong Energy Group's Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical Zone Comprehensive Energy Station project, and the Dongguan Ningzhou site replacement power source 9H level HRSG [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xizi Clean Energy has established itself as a leader in the domestic gas turbine waste heat boiler market, holding over 50% market share, and is expanding its presence in overseas markets due to increasing demand for natural gas installations [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Position - The company signed a technology transfer agreement with the US N/E company in 2002, which is the largest technology transfer entity globally [1] - Gas turbine waste heat boilers are critical equipment for addressing the slow start-up of traditional thermal power and the instability of renewable energy, thanks to their low carbon efficiency and rapid peak response capabilities [1] - The company has a domestic market share exceeding 50%, making it the leader in the gas turbine waste heat boiler industry in China [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The company has gained recognition from overseas clients due to its brand effect, equipment quality, and delivery service, particularly in the context of expanding natural gas installation demands [1] - Notable projects include the first set of 9H gas turbine waste heat boilers in Pakistan, marking significant achievements in international markets [1] - In the last two years, the company has secured multiple overseas project orders, capitalizing on the surge in global electricity demand [1] Group 3: Product Supply and Compatibility - The company has supplied over 450 sets of gas turbine waste heat boilers, covering a full range of products [1] - Its products are compatible with major global gas turbine brands such as GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xizi Clean Energy (002534.SZ) is a leader in the domestic gas turbine waste heat boiler industry, holding over 50% market share, and is expanding its presence in overseas markets due to increasing demand for natural gas power generation [1] Group 1: Domestic Market - The company signed a technology transfer agreement with the US N/E company in 2002, which is the largest technology transfer entity globally [1] - Gas turbine waste heat boilers are key equipment for addressing the slow start-up of traditional thermal power and the instability of renewable energy, thanks to their low carbon efficiency and rapid peak response capabilities [1] - The company has supplied over 450 sets of gas turbine waste heat boilers, covering a full range of products compatible with major global gas turbine brands such as GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi [1] Group 2: International Market - The company has gained recognition from overseas clients due to its brand effect, equipment quality, and delivery services, with notable projects including the first set of 9H gas turbine waste heat boilers in Pakistan [1] - In the past two years, the company has secured multiple overseas project orders, capitalizing on the booming demand for electricity in international markets [1] - The company aims to seize opportunities for gas turbine waste heat boiler orders driven by the explosive demand for natural gas units [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][8][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the waste heat boiler sector, with significant growth potential in solar thermal and energy storage markets, alongside active expansion in nuclear power and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) [5][6][10]. - The company has a robust order backlog of 6.119 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, providing a solid foundation for future revenue [7][10]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 443 million, 510 million, and 604 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28, 24, and 20 times [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a focus on waste heat boilers to a diversified clean energy equipment and solutions provider, with a strong emphasis on energy efficiency and low-carbon development [17][20]. - It is recognized as the largest and most comprehensive manufacturer of waste heat boilers in China, with a market share exceeding 50% [5][20]. 2. Business Segments - The main business segments include waste heat boilers, clean energy equipment, and comprehensive energy solutions, with a notable increase in revenue from clean energy equipment, which reached 1.025 billion yuan in 2024, a 33% year-on-year increase [20][23]. - The solutions segment has shown strong growth, accounting for over 50% of revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting robust demand in high-energy-consuming industries [20][23]. 3. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas sales accounting for 13.82% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, a 48.79% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The company has made significant advancements in molten salt energy storage technology, participating in various demonstration projects and positioning itself for growth in solar thermal power and flexible coal-fired power generation [6][12]. 4. Financial Performance - The company's revenue experienced fluctuations, with a decline to 6.437 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit surged to 440 million yuan, a 705.7% increase from the previous year [38][39]. - The financial outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued profit recovery driven by improved product mix and cost management [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience stable order volumes and optimistic performance growth in 2012, benefiting from the high demand in the waste heat boiler industry [1] - The company has received a significant compensation payment and reported a substantial increase in net profit for 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [2] - The company is actively expanding into overseas, new energy, and spare parts markets, with a strong order backlog supporting its growth [4] - The company has improved order quality and strengthened cost control measures, leading to an increase in overall gross margin [4] - Continuous investment in R&D is being made to deepen the company's involvement in the "new energy + storage" sector, leveraging its proprietary molten salt storage technology [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 6.437 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.33% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 440 million yuan, a significant increase of 705.74% [2][6] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 7.171 billion yuan, 7.929 billion yuan, and 8.501 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 11.4%, 10.6%, and 7.2% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 18.47%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.99 [6][7]