回顾2025年，又是"高度确信的押注"层出不穷——且转眼就被翻盘的一年。 智通财经APP获悉，从东京的债券交易台、纽约的信贷审批委员会，到伊斯坦布尔的外汇盘口，市场既送来横财，也带来"鞭伤"。黄金刷新历史纪录;素来沉 闷的抵押贷款巨头像迷因股般狂扭;一场教科书式的套利交易眨眼间炸得粉碎。 投资者把重注押在瞬息万变的政治、臃肿的资产负债表和脆弱的故事线上，推起夸张的股指涨势、拥挤的收益交易，以及靠杠杆、希望和所剩无几的其他东 西搭建的加密策略。唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，先让全球金融市场沉入水底，又瞬间拉出水面;欧洲军工股被点燃，投机者在一场接一场的狂热中愈发大胆。 部分头寸赚得盆满钵满，可当动能反转、融资枯竭或杠杆割错方向时，另一些头寸则灰飞烟灭。 岁末将至，下文将盘点2025年最抓人眼球的几笔押注——赢家、输家，以及定义这个时代的仓位。它们让许多投资者在为2026年布局时，对再熟悉不过的风 险裂缝惴惴不安：摇摇欲坠的公司、被拉到极致的估值，以及那些"一直有效直到瞬间失效"的趋势跟风交易。 加密货币：特朗普行情 这曾被视为加密领域最带劲的动量赌局：凡是跟特朗普品牌沾边的，全盘吃进。竞选期间及至入主白宫后，特朗普全 ...

Group 1 - Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked a wave of investment enthusiasm in Wall Street and the cryptocurrency sector, with traders betting on the potential benefits for companies and crypto projects associated with Trump [1][12][13] - The stock of Trump Media Technology Group, which owns the social platform "Truth Social," saw its price triple in the five weeks leading up to the election, reaching a valuation of $11 billion despite never being profitable [1][13] - Currently, the stock price has plummeted to below $11, representing an approximately 80% decline from its peak, with a market cap now under $3 billion [2][13] Group 2 - The "Truth Social" platform has not gained mainstream popularity as expected, with only 1.5 million monthly active users compared to competitors like X and Reddit [2][14] - Other investments related to Trump have fared even worse, such as the official Trump meme coin, which peaked at $45.57 with a market cap of $9 billion but has since dropped to around $5.6, losing 88% of its value [4][5][16][17] - Melania Trump's meme coin saw a staggering 99% loss, dropping from a peak of $8.48 to just $0.11, with a market cap now at $1 million [6][18] Group 3 - The private prison stocks, which initially surged due to expectations of increased demand under Trump's administration, have also seen significant declines, with GEO Group's stock price halving from its peak of $35.35 [8][20][22] - Conversely, some investments have performed well, such as European aerospace and defense stocks, which have risen over 70% this year due to increased defense spending pressures from Trump [10][22] - Bitcoin prices surged following Trump's election, with current prices around $90,000, significantly higher than the $63,000 level at the end of September 2024, despite a drop from recent highs [11][24]

Group 1 - The Trump family's wealth has decreased by $1 billion in a few months due to losses in the volatile cryptocurrency market, dropping from an estimated $7.7 billion in early September to $6.7 billion [1] - Investments in meme coins and cryptocurrencies have significantly impacted the family's wealth, with a Trump-named meme coin losing about 25% of its value since August, and Eric Trump's Bitcoin mining business seeing its value halved [1][5] - The overall cryptocurrency market has lost approximately $1 trillion in value, severely affecting the Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), which invested around $2 billion in Bitcoin and other securities [5] Group 2 - Despite the losses, the Trump family has seen substantial profits from their ventures into cryptocurrencies and NFTs, with estimates suggesting that their cryptocurrency assets have surpassed their real estate investments [3] - The World Freedom Financial Company, supported by Trump, began trading on multiple exchanges, generating around $5 billion for the family, although the value of their WLFI tokens has dropped from $6 billion to approximately $3.15 billion [3] - Eric Trump downplayed the family's significant losses in the cryptocurrency sector, suggesting that the economic downturn presents a "great buying opportunity" for investors [5]