AI交易与加密资产在经历一轮密集抛售后，可能正在逼近阶段性底部。Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管 Tom Lee认为，软件股，Mag 7以及加密货币的回撤已进入"最后几周"。 这一判断出现在英伟达交出"稳健"业绩、但市场反应仍偏克制之际。英伟达CEO黄仁勋也公开表示，市 场对软件板块的抛售"判断错误"，接下来这一观点能否被资金接受，将直接影响AI链条的情绪修复速 度。 在策略层面，他用"1月晴雨表"为风险资产提供支撑：标普500在1月首周与全月分别上涨1.5%和1.3% 后，2月往往是"回吐月"，月度中位数跌幅约0.4%，随后3月可能转强，平均涨幅或达2%，4月表现可能 更佳。 加密货币：回撤或进入最后阶段，Tom Lee押注ETH反弹 在加密市场，Tom Lee继续保持偏多立场，他认为这一轮下跌接近结束，特别指出ETH将止跌反弹。 底部信号：坏消息触发"见底机制"，轮动接近极值 Tom Lee的核心逻辑是"坏消息出底部"。他特别提到本周初Citrini Research的病毒式看空内容对情绪的冲 击，并据此判断市场可能"已经走到相当靠后的位置"。 在他看来，资金从核心拥挤交易中撤出的过程接近极端，意味 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 102,890 | 1.36% | 103040 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,350 | 1.17% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 291,554 | 93,583 | 556,155 | -7,927 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,795 | -6,860 | 321,000 | 4,315 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 287,806 | 10,717 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 249,650 | 6,475 | 5.02% | 0.52% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | -85.04 | -83.6 ...

铜：宏观缺乏指引，铜价高位震荡 周三晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于103040元，伦铜运行至约13350美金附近。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 宏观中性。特朗普国情咨文表态指引性不强，海外隔夜消息面清淡，市场风险偏好改善，美元温和走软提振铜价。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加10717吨至28.7万吨，国内现货贴水承压走跌至-200元左右，LME铜累库6475吨至24.96万吨。 总体来看，国内下游复工与国内政策预期对铜价具备提振，不过海外宏观缺乏指引，同时关税摩擦与地缘扰动仍存，预计短期铜价高位宽幅震荡为主。今日 沪铜主力运行参考10.2万-10.4万元/吨。策略上，日内区间为主，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅上涨，近期新疆铝厂常规招标万吨现货氧化铝 ...

而新一代AI技术的突破打破了原有格局，实现了对传统AI交易的颠覆。此前的AI交易多停留在被动分 析、辅助决策层面，依赖人工设定规则，而新一代AI Agent已进化为能自主研究、生成策略、编写代码 并执行交易的智能体，形成完整交易闭环，无需人工干预即可完成全流程操作，彻底改变了原有AI交 易的被动属性。这种颠覆直接推动投资逻辑转变，资金从高波动科技股流出，转向盈利稳定的防御性标 的，间接助力能源、必选消费和美债领涨。 值得注意的是，AI交易的颠覆并非一蹴而就，市场仍处于转型过渡期。部分机构仍沿用传统AI交易模 式，头部机构则加速布局新一代AI Agent，形成差异化竞争格局，同时这种颠覆也带来了新的风险—— 2026年以来，全球金融市场呈现鲜明分化格局，能源、必选消费板块及美国国债持续领跑市场，成为年 初以来最稳健的盈利主线；与此同时，曾主导华尔街交易生态的"AI交易"正经历深刻变革，被新一代AI 技术自身颠覆，叠加关税政策扰动、美伊局势缓和等因素，市场资产定价逻辑正在重新重构，各方观点 呈现多元博弈态势。 能源、必选消费和美债的领涨态势清晰且具备明确支撑逻辑，并非简单的风格轮动。能源板块受益于双 重利好，一方 ...

Core Insights - H&H International Investment, led by investment mogul Duan Yongping, reported a total market value of $17.5 billion for its U.S. stock holdings as of December 31, 2025, up from $14.7 billion in the previous quarter [2] Group 1 - The portfolio included three new stocks, six stocks were increased, and five stocks were reduced, with no stocks completely sold off [2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 99.66% of the total market value [2]

Core Insights - Notable investor Duan Yongping significantly increased his position in Nvidia by over 11 times in Q4, while substantially reducing his stake in Apple [1] - Duan Yongping's Q4 activity included a total of six stock increases, with Nvidia seeing the largest increase, followed by Berkshire Hathaway [1] - The total holding value of Nvidia reached $1.35 billion, making it the third-largest position in Duan's portfolio, accounting for 7.72% [1] Stock Position Changes - Apple (AAPL) saw a reduction in holdings by 2,470,600 shares, now representing 50.30% of the portfolio with a market value of $879.7 million [2] - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) increased by 1,984,896 shares, now holding 20.63% of the portfolio valued at $360.7 million [2] - Nvidia (NVDA) was increased by 6,639,300 shares, now holding 7.72% of the portfolio valued at $1.35 billion [2] New Investments - Duan Yongping initiated positions in three emerging tech companies: CoreWeave, Credo Technology, and Tempus Ai, with respective portfolio weights of 0.12%, 0.12%, and 0.04% [1] - Although the combined weight of these new positions is approximately 0.28%, they strategically cover critical nodes in the AI industry chain: computing power, connectivity, and application [1]

（来源：吴说） Bitget 宣布推出 Agent Hub，支持快速接入开启 AI 交易。Bitget 表示，Agent Hub 基于 Bitget API 构 建，并推出官方封装的 Model Context Protocol（MCP）工具套件，使 AI Agent 可通过标准化接口安全 访问市场数据与交易执行能力。作为 Bitget 2026 年三大核心战略之一，Agent Hub 将嵌入全景交易所 UEX 架构，在统一账户与风险体系下支持跨资产类别运作。 ...

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in technology stocks globally are attributed to liquidity shocks from the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair and a lack of new catalysts in the AI sector, particularly following the release of Anthropic's new AI tool, which raised concerns about the disruption of traditional software business models [2][36] Market Analysis - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The main focus will shift towards sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, and construction materials benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][36] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, has shown signs of recovery potential, especially if the liquidity shock subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI industry [8][19] Sector Performance - The A-share market has seen a mixed performance, with consumer leaders and large-cap value stocks performing well, while tech-heavy indices like the STAR Market and tech leaders have struggled [37] - The manufacturing sector's PMI has shown a decline, indicating a contraction in activity, while heavy truck sales have seen a significant year-on-year increase, suggesting some resilience in specific segments [40][52] Investment Trends - There has been a notable outflow of financing funds, with a net outflow of 34.59 billion yuan in the first four trading days of the week. However, there has been a net subscription in ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][56] - The recent launch of Anthropic's AI tool has triggered a sell-off in legal and data service stocks, raising fundamental questions about the profitability and growth prospects of the SaaS industry [22][26] Future Outlook - The software industry is undergoing a structural adjustment rather than a fundamental collapse, with a shift towards AI-native intelligent services expected to redefine business models [32][35] - The Chinese SaaS industry is positioned to benefit from ongoing digital transformation demands, with AI viewed as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [33][35]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the market is primarily driven by the "Walsh trade," which has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and a significant decline in emerging markets and commodities [2][5][41] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, has reached a point of value for investment, indicating potential for a rebound once the impact of the Walsh trade subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7][25][44] - The report emphasizes that the market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation in February, with a stronger performance anticipated after the holiday compared to before [2][7][44] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural adjustment in the software industry following the release of Anthropic's AI plugin tool, which poses a threat to traditional software pricing models and has triggered a sell-off in related stocks [6][28][43] - It notes that the Chinese SaaS industry is still in its growth phase, with ongoing digital transformation demands across various sectors, positioning AI as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [40][43] - The report indicates that the valuation of technology stocks, particularly in Hong Kong, is at historically low levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as the regulatory environment improves [25][44] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including cyclical and technology sectors, with a focus on industries such as electronics, media, machinery, and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and seasonal consumption trends [7][44] - It highlights that the market is currently in a spring rally phase, recommending a growth style investment approach, with a preference for larger-cap stocks initially before shifting to smaller-cap stocks [7][44] - The report also points out that the recent volatility in the technology sector is exacerbated by concerns over aggressive capital expenditure plans from major tech companies, which may not yield short-term profitability [38][39]