由于强于预期的美国就业报告强化了美联储将在12月会议上按兵不动的预期，金价周五继续下滑，并有望周线收跌。 截至周五发稿前，现货黄金日内跌近1%，并一度逼近4000美元大关，现有所反弹。 GoldSilver Central董事总经理Brian Lan表示："金价目前正在盘整，我们看到美元走强了不少，其背后是对美联储是否会继续降息的大量猜测。"我认为现在 市场不确定，特别是当我们临近12月底时，我们预计许多交易员将对头寸进行获利了结，这就是我们从上周末到本周所看到的情况。" 掉期交易员认为下个月降息的可能性只有40%，而就在两周前，他们还支持降息25个基点。通常情况下，利率较高时，贵金属的表现会逊于市场。 尽管从历史高位有所回落，但黄金今年迄今仍涨超50%，有望创下1979年以来最佳年度表现。交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入和各国央行的购金行为支 撑了这波强劲的上涨行情。然而，最近这波由所谓的"贬值交易"（即抛售主权债务和货币）推动的涨势，可能已经过度。 瑞士宝盛集团研究主管Carsten Menke表示："最近的贬值交易是基于希望，而不是现实。"他说，尽管在七国集团国家财政担忧加剧之际，这种现象仍是金价 的 ...

同时，中美之间达成贸易"休战"，对于美元而言同样是一个支撑。这意味着至少在1年之内，双方的贸 易政策会保持在可预期范围之内，关税水平和贸易限制会维持稳定。这实际上对于美国控制通胀有帮 助。另外，随着美国与一些国家相继达成贸易协议，美国与其他国家之间的实际关税水平也没有特朗普 此前宣称的那么大。这将扭转此前市场担心的通胀上升的前景，使得美元走弱预期发生转变。就此而 言，美国内部、外部的一系列变化，虽然不一定有利于美国经济，但却会改变美元的走势。 另外，从国际主要货币来看，欧元和日元都受限于自身问题，难以对美元相抗衡。日本方面，在高市政 府上台后，基本放弃了维持日元稳定、约束通胀的政策，改为进一步扩大财政刺激，推动日元贬值，以 刺激出口和资本市场。这导致日元兑美元汇率，回到了155左右。欧洲方面，欧元区经济第三季度勉强 实现0.2%的增长，略高于市场预期，但内部分化严重，德、法等核心国家经济仍然低迷。德国方面巨 额财政刺激效果并不理想，而法国仍然陷入财政预算的政治纷争之中。俄乌冲突的持续，更令欧洲经济 前景黯淡，也使得一度受到关注的欧元难以维持当前的地位。就此来看，即使在特朗普"保守主义"政策 之下，美国市场的深 ...

这使得Tether成为市场上最大的黄金买家之一——这一统计尚未包含其黄金稳定币（XAUT）的黄金储 备，也未计入用Tether数十亿美元利润进行的私人黄金投资。该公司还已入股黄金供应链的其他环节， 包括特许权公司。 近年来，Tether在贵金属领域积极扩张，已积累起全球规模最大的黄金储备之一——且这一储备不属于 银行或主权国家，是其超1800亿美元储备资产的一部分。汇丰是贵金属领域的巨头，被广泛认为是仅次 于摩根大通的行业领导者，业务涵盖期货交易、金库存储及全球金条运输。 多米安目前担任伦敦金银市场协会（London Bullion Market Association）董事，该协会是全球黄金市场 事实上的标准制定机构。他于2019年从法国兴业银行（Societe Generale SA）加盟汇丰，2022年出任全 球金属交易主管。奥尼尔则自2008年起效力于汇丰。 在人才竞争日益激烈的当下，两人的离职对汇丰贵金属业务是一记打击。今年以来，黄金价格创下1979 年以来最佳年度表现，接连打破纪录，贸易公司、对冲基金和银行纷纷扩充贵金属专业团队。 Tether旗下旗舰美元稳定币（USDT）的储备资产中包含黄金，其 ...

Core Insights - Tether is hiring two top global precious metals traders from HSBC to build a significant gold reserve and challenge existing market leaders [1] - Tether has accumulated one of the largest gold reserves globally, which is part of its over $180 billion in reserve assets [1][2] - The company has become one of the largest buyers of gold in the market, with its latest report indicating over $12 billion in gold holdings as of September [2] Group 1 - Tether's flagship stablecoin, USDT, is backed by various reserve assets, including gold and U.S. Treasury securities, with a 1:1 exchange rate to the dollar [2] - The company reported a profit of $13 billion from its reserve assets last year and expects to earn around $15 billion this year [2] - Tether's growth is attributed to the rising gold prices driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt and currency devaluation [3] Group 2 - The departure of the two traders from HSBC is a setback for the bank's precious metals business amid increasing competition for talent in the sector [2] - Tether's gold reserve growth has been significant, averaging over 1 ton of gold added weekly over the past year [2] - Tether has also invested in other segments of the gold supply chain, including royalty companies [2]

Core Insights - The decline of gold is evident as Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of recovery, with gold dropping over 10.60% to a low of $3,915, marking its largest seven-day decline since April [2] - Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of $839 million, while gold ETFs have experienced outflows of $4.1 billion [2][7] - Historical patterns suggest that gold may rebound by 8.3% following significant declines [15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices coincides with a 6.70% increase in Bitcoin, highlighting a divergence as the U.S. and China approach a trade agreement [4] - Following President Trump's comments on a successful meeting with Xi Jinping, which included a reduction in tariffs related to fentanyl, risk appetite has improved, potentially leading traders to shift back to Bitcoin [5] - Since October 20, gold-backed ETFs have seen outflows of approximately 1.064 million ounces (nearly $4.1 billion), including the largest single-day withdrawal in over six months [7] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show strong support around $101,790 [10] - Despite the current pullback, gold remains in a bull market, supported above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) [12] - Historical data indicates that gold typically rebounds 4%-33% after bouncing off the 50-day EMA, suggesting potential for recovery [12] Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts at JPMorgan predict that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by 2025, asserting that it remains undervalued compared to gold [12] - If historical patterns hold, gold may revisit the $4,200-$4,250 range by December, reaffirming its broader upward trend [17] - Maintaining above the 50-day EMA could allow gold to reach HSBC's target of $5,000 by 2026 [17]

Core Viewpoint - After three days of selling, gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising to $4010 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1.5% increase, while silver regained the $48 per ounce mark, up about 2.5% [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically increases the attractiveness of non-yielding precious metals as borrowing costs decrease [3] - Gold previously surged to a historical high of over $4380 per ounce but experienced a significant pullback due to rapid price increases and reduced safe-haven demand following positive signals in U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][4] - Despite recent corrections, gold has accumulated a rise of approximately 50% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases and investors seeking to avoid sovereign debt and currency risks [4] Group 2: Investment Trends - Recent outflows from gold ETFs have weakened some support for gold prices, with a notable $1 billion net withdrawal from State Street's SPDR Gold ETF, marking the largest single-day outflow since April [4] - The total holdings in gold ETFs saw the largest decline in six months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4] - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will fluctuate between $3700 and $4050 for the remainder of the year, with a year-end target of $3950, and predicts a peak above $4400 in the first half of 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was widely anticipated and did not trigger panic among investors, instead sparking a buying frenzy among retail investors [1][3]. Market Reaction - Despite the significant drop, global retail investors rushed to buy gold, viewing the price decline as a buying opportunity, with reports of high demand from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. [7][8][9]. - Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, considering the price drop a "healthy correction" necessary to clear market excesses and ensure the sustainability of the bull market [10][11]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Morgan Stanley suggest that the recent price drop will be absorbed by other buyers, including central banks, leading to limited overall price declines [11]. - The core drivers of the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11]. Contrarian Views - Some analysts, like Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields, a budget surplus in September, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar index [12][13]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the bullish outlook for gold [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent gold market crash did not trigger panic but instead ignited a buying frenzy among retail investors globally, while most precious metals analysts maintained their core views [1][3][11] Market Reaction - The gold market experienced a significant drop, with prices plunging 6.3% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline since 2013 [5] - Retail investors from Singapore to the U.S. reported a surge in buying activity, viewing the price drop as a buying opportunity [7][9][10] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Heraeus Precious Metals had previously warned about an overextended market, indicating that the crash was anticipated [4][11] - Most analysts believe this correction is a healthy market adjustment to clear out excesses, with predictions of a return to a more robust upward trajectory [11] Underlying Factors - The driving forces behind the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11] - However, some analysts, including Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" logic supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields and a budget surplus in September [12][13] Risks and Historical Context - Even bullish analysts like Gregory Shearer from JPMorgan acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, drawing parallels to the 2011 gold price peak that took years to recover from [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was largely anticipated by market professionals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The crash did not trigger panic; instead, it sparked a buying frenzy among retail investors globally, who viewed the price drop as a buying opportunity [3][5]. - Reports from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. indicated a significant increase in demand, with BullionStar's CEO noting it was their busiest day ever [5][6]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Most precious metals analysts maintained their bullish outlook, viewing the price drop as a healthy correction to clear market excesses [7]. - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and JPMorgan Chase expressed confidence that the price would stabilize and return to a robust upward trajectory, with JPMorgan predicting an average gold price exceeding $5,000 by Q4 next year [7]. Group 3: Concerns and Counterarguments - Despite the optimism, some analysts, including Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, raised concerns about the sustainability of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields and a budget surplus [9][11]. - Hartnett highlighted that the current market conditions may not support the prevailing narrative of shorting the dollar and going long on gold [9]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledged risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the gold bull market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was widely anticipated and did not trigger panic among investors [1][3]. Market Reaction - Despite the crash, retail investors globally rushed to buy gold, viewing the price drop as a buying opportunity, with reports of significant purchasing activity from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. [6][7][8]. - Analysts maintain a generally optimistic outlook, suggesting that the decline is a healthy correction to clear market excesses, with expectations of a return to a bullish trajectory [9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts, like Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the sustainability of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields, a budget surplus in September, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar index [10][11]. - Morgan Stanley's Gregory Shearer predicts that the price of gold could average over $5,000 by Q4 of next year, driven by continued buying from central banks and retail investors [9]. Historical Context - The current situation draws parallels to past market behaviors, particularly the 2011 peak when gold prices fell after reaching a high, suggesting caution despite current bullish sentiments [14].