贵FOMO 贵贵贵 贵贵贵贵贵 2026/02/02 作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 ◼ 上周，受贝森特重申强美元立场及鹰派色彩明显的凯文·沃什获提名为美联储主席等消息影响，美元指数走强，市场担忧全球流动性 宽松的交易逻辑生变，引发贵金属在三个交易日内出现集中抛售。伦敦现货黄金下跌近20%，白银跌幅更高达40%，全球主要股市亦普 遍承压。 ◼ 我们认为，此次贵金属的剧烈回调，本质上源于此前快速上涨阶段积累的结构脆弱性——无论是价格短期涨幅与速度、看涨期权波动 率的高溢价，还是多项技术指标揭示的超买状态，均早已提示市场处于高波动、高风险的不稳定格局。暴涨与急跌实为一枚硬币的两 面，盈亏同源，市场在情绪推动下往往如履薄冰。 ◼ 然而，全球流动性宽松的逻辑未必就此逆转，"贬值交易"的宏观主题也难以轻易进入逆风期。一个重要原因在于：即便沃什在货币 政策上偏鹰，其在资产负债表层面的操作空间实际上受到财政现实的制约。若其推动缩表，私人部门将被迫吸收更多长期债券，从而 推高期限溢价、抬升长端收益率， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold and silver prices, marking the worst day for these metals since 1980, driven by hawkish sentiments regarding inflation and the U.S. dollar following the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Silver prices plummeted by 31%, while gold futures fell by 11%, marking the largest single-day dollar drop in history for gold [3][5]. - The sell-off began after reports of Trump's nomination of Walsh, who is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, which alleviated concerns on Wall Street regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][4]. - Following Walsh's confirmation, the U.S. dollar strengthened against other precious metals, leading to a rapid decline in the precious metals market [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - Silver futures dropped from over $114 per ounce to a settlement price of $78.29, a decline of $35.747, which is comparable to silver prices in June [4]. - Gold futures fell to $4,713.90 per ounce, the largest single-day drop since January 1980 [5]. - The declines in precious metals also negatively impacted mining stocks and contributed to a 0.4% drop in the S&P 500 index [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the recent downturn may be a necessary correction after a period of rapid price increases, particularly for industrial users of these metals [5]. - There is speculation that short-term traders may have contributed to the sell-off as a protective measure against potential stock market declines [5]. - The article notes that the market for precious metals is relatively small, meaning that large investors can significantly influence price movements, adding to the volatility [7].

【导读】见证历史了 大家好，北京时间凌晨两点到三点之间，再一次见证历史。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 黄金白银经历了猛烈的抛售，现货白银一度跌超35%，创下有史以来最糟糕的单日表现。现货黄金一度 暴跌超过10%，创下自1983年以来的最大单日跌幅。 分析指出，因为特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席的消息，似乎缓解了市场对央行独立性的 担忧，并推动美元大涨。 特朗普还表示："沃什没有承诺降息，要求他降息是不合适的。我可能会和他谈谈降息的事，沃什也想 降息。沃什将在没有白宫压力的情况下降低利率。" 此次大幅下挫最初由有关沃什获提名的报道触发，但在北京凌晨时间进一步加速——此前涌入贵金属的 投资者争相获利了结。美元指数飙升也令金银承压：美元走强使海外投资者购买黄金和白银的成本更 高，同时也削弱了"贵金属将取代美元成为全球储备货币"的理论。 米勒塔巴克公司的股票策略师马特·马利表示："这太疯狂了。大部分可能是'被迫抛售'。最近对白银这 种资产，日内交易者和其他短线交易者的热度最高，因此白银里积累了一些杠杆。今天暴跌这么厉害， 保证金追缴（mar ...

11:34 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1086.53 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-01-2 1,090 1.080 1,070 1,060 1,050 1.040 1.030 2025-11-17 2025-12-05 2025-12-26 2026-01-20 |을 图表 謂 表 截至1月29日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1086.53吨，较前一个交易日减少3.43吨。1月29日，现货黄金巨震500美元，日内最高攀升至 5595.07美元/盎司，盘中最低狂泻至5100美元附近，收于5377.54美元/盎司，跌38.05美元/0.70%。伴随着金价的巨震，黄金ETF持仓量也有所减少。 基本面消息，这轮始于本周初的强劲涨势已累计推动金价上涨约400美元，全球投资者持续涌入传统避险资产，推动黄金呈现抛物线式上涨。尽管周四遭遇 剧烈震荡走势，但是金价基本面因素仍然强劲。 美元走软以及市场对美联储独立性的担忧进一步为黄金提供支撑，再加上地缘政治紧张以及全球经济不确定性，均构成了支撑金价的支撑因素。分析认为， 交 ...

Group 1 - Chicago wheat futures have risen to a nearly two-month high, driven by a weaker dollar which has boosted grain and oilseed futures [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is approaching a four-year low due to depreciation trades, putting pressure on the dollar as investors pull out of the currency and U.S. Treasuries [1] - The weaker dollar makes U.S. agricultural exports more attractive, contributing to a 1.3% increase in wheat futures, which are on track for a third consecutive day of gains, potentially marking the longest winning streak in a month [1] Group 2 - Corn and soybean futures have also increased in tandem with wheat prices, reflecting a broader trend in the agricultural commodities market [1]

现货黄金冲上5500美元/盎司！ 来源：都市时报 涨疯了！ 黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ | | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | AUUSDO 圆 | | | | 5490.410 | | | 5494.720 | 卧库收 | 5171.240 | | | | 低 | 5156.550 | 买价 | 5490.410 | | 319.170 6.17% | | 开 | 5171.240 | 卖价 | 5493.520 | | 同花顺黄金 2 | | | 银行金价 1187.24 4.48% > | | | | 相关 ETF 2 | | | | T+0 上海金ETF 3.25% > | | | 分时 日K | 月K | 園K | 五日 | 重多△ | | | 均线▼ | 日线 M5:5129.366 M10:4907.008 | | | | 筹码 前复权 | | M60:4380.170 | M20:4695.853 M30:4602.710 | | | | | | 2263.612 | | | | | 5494.720 | ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold has surged to a record high of $5500 per ounce, marking a 1.74% increase in a single day [1] - Spot silver has also reached a historical peak of $118 per ounce, with a daily rise of 1.12% [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, gold and silver prices experienced significant increases, with gold briefly surpassing $5450 and reaching a high of $5496 [3] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced an increase in the margin requirement for silver deferred contracts from 19% to 20%, effective January 30, 2026, along with an adjustment in the price fluctuation limit from 18% to 19% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also updated its margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts, including gold and silver, effective January 30, 2026 [6] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts indicate that while gold prices are currently supported by factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, there is a rising risk of long-term consolidation rather than an imminent sharp correction [8][10] - Concerns regarding fiscal debt expansion, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical tensions are driving gold prices higher, but many of these concerns have not yet materialized into severe market reactions [9]

黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ 1月29日， | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 5487.560 | 昨结 5417.747 ナー | | | 5416.334 | | | +69.813 +1.29% | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5598.750 詩 仓 0 | | 外 = | | 0 | | 最低价 | 5416.260 增 仓 0 R | | | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K 月K | | | 百名 | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- | | 型 | | | 5598.750 | | 3.34% | 三1 | 5489.212 | 0 | | | | | ਸੀ। | 5488.888 | 0 | | | | | | 08:06 5488.000 08:06 5488.326 0 | 0 | | 5417.747 | | 0.00% | | 08:06 5488.330 | 0 | | | | | | ...

黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ 石油方面，随着伊朗局势升温，国际油价集体飘红。WTI原油涨近1.8%，报63.5美元/桶，ICE布油涨超1.6%，报67.68美元/桶，同步升至2025年9月以来高 点。 警惕！ 上期所、上金所双双发布通知 29日，现货黄金冲上5500美元/盎司！ | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 5487.560 | 昨结 | 5417.747 开营 | 5416.334 | | | +69.813 +1.29% | | 总量(kq) 0.00 现手 | O | | | 最高价 5598.750 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 0 | | | 最低价 5416.260 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 0 | | | 42 | 五日 EK 周K | | 日末 | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 5598.750 | | 3.34% 卖1 | 5489.212 - 0 | | | | | ਸੀ। | 5488.888 0 08:06 5488.000 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that both gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold surpassing $5500 per ounce and silver touching $118 per ounce [3][16] - On January 29, 2023, gold prices increased by 1.74% and silver by 1.12%, marking significant daily gains [3][16] - The Federal Reserve announced it would maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations, leading to a surge in precious metal prices [4][16] Group 2 - Oil prices have also risen, with WTI crude oil increasing nearly 1.8% to $63.5 per barrel and ICE Brent crude oil rising over 1.6% to $67.68 per barrel, reaching the highest levels since September 2025 [6][18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have announced adjustments to margin levels and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts, effective January 30, 2026 [8][20] - Analysts have indicated that while gold prices are supported by various factors, there is a rising risk of long-term consolidation rather than an imminent significant correction [10][22][25] Group 3 - According to Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank, speculative enthusiasm could push gold prices to $5500 per ounce, driven by concerns over fiscal debt expansion, a weakening dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent inflation worries [11][23] - Despite these concerns, many have not yet materialized into reality, as the U.S. fiscal debt continues to rise without causing a market collapse, and geopolitical tensions have not escalated significantly [11][23] - Hansen believes that while safe-haven demand may begin to cool, gold is unlikely to experience a substantial pullback in the short term [24]