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信用周报:贵州:化债后半程还有哪些机会?-20250813
China Post Securities· 2025-08-13 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Guizhou is a typical key province with relatively weak economic and fiscal strength, but the debt burden has been significantly relieved after debt resolution. The progress of debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is still a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on industrialization entities [4][19][21]. - The debt pressure in Guizhou has been alleviated, and the public - market debt issuance is cautious. The debt structure is relatively balanced. The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting [4][19]. - For bond selection, short - term varieties of both traditional urban investment and newly emerged market - oriented entities can be considered. Traditional urban investment's standard - bond market is shrinking, and the remaining part has a stronger safety margin. Market - oriented entities are currently the key recommended targets in the region, with relatively controllable credit risks in the short term. A cautious attitude is still maintained towards medium - and long - term credit products [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic and Fiscal Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's GDP was 2.266712 trillion yuan, ranking tenth from the bottom among provinces; the general budget revenue was 216.962 billion yuan, also ranking relatively low nationwide. However, the government - funded revenue was 231.528 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the country. Since 2020, Guizhou has had a government - funded revenue scale of over 200 billion yuan for four consecutive years [2][9]. - Among Guizhou's prefecture - level cities, Guiyang and Zunyi are in the first echelon. In 2024, their GDP exceeded 50 billion yuan, while other prefecture - level cities and autonomous prefectures were between 10 billion and 25 billion yuan. In 2024, the general budget revenues of Guiyang and Zunyi were 47.205 billion yuan and 34.776 billion yuan respectively, and the land transfer revenues were 64.325 billion yuan and 28.308 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.2 Debt Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's government debt balance was 1.753709 trillion yuan, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debt was only 1.590627 trillion yuan, with a relatively balanced debt structure [2][10]. - In 2024, the government debt balances of Guiyang and Zunyi were 376.955 billion yuan and 278.841 billion yuan respectively, and the outstanding urban investment interest - bearing debts were 385.355 billion yuan and 191.134 billion yuan respectively [3][13]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Progress - With limited financial resources in the province, the debt resolution support is strong. Substantial progress has been made in high - interest debt replacement with the help of special bond debt - resolution funds. Banks are more willing to participate in high - interest debt replacement, mainly replacing high - interest bank loans, while the progress of non - standard debt replacement is relatively slow [3][16]. - From 2024 to the present in 2025, Guizhou has issued 184.619 billion yuan and 105.944 billion yuan of special refinancing replacement bonds respectively, with the issuance scale always in the top five in the country. The scale of special new special bonds is also not small [16]. 3.4 Development and Bond Financing - Guizhou's debt resolution is approaching the end, and there is a demand for new financing at the provincial, municipal, and high - tech district levels, mainly relying on the subsequent appearance of industrialization entities in the capital market [4][19]. - The transformation progress of listed and second - type urban investment companies in Guizhou is not fast, and there is no clear provincial coordination time for delisting. Currently, the publicly - traded bond - issuing entities strongly recommended in the region are mainly state - owned enterprises that have successfully transformed into market - oriented operations [4][19]. 3.5 Industrial Situation - Guian New Area aims to build "three major industrial bases": a national computing power guarantee base, a new - energy power battery and material R & D and production base, and an important national industrial backup base. Many major projects have been put into production, but the contribution of data computing centers to tax revenue is not strong [14]. - Guizhou has established a "6 + 3" industrial system and a "3533" industrial cluster, with key support for industries such as new energy and aerospace high - tech industries, as well as other projects like urbanization, tourism, agriculture, and ecological environmental protection [20][21].