港航板块全面发力，交运基础设施估值修复 20260303 摘要 霍尔木兹海峡实质性关闭已成事实，3 月 2 日通行量由百余航次骤降至 5 航次，预计未来 2-4 周冲突烈度持续高位，航道阻断短期难以缓解。 油气运输受海峡依赖度最高，原油/LPG/成品油贸易占比分别约 38%/ 29%/19%；管道替代缺口有限，全球约 20%原油贸易面临中断风险。 油运运价飙升，中东线报价超 42 万美元/天但有价无市，巴西/美湾线分 别升至 26 万/22 万美元/天；若绕行好望角，航程将增加约 10 天。 港口板块具备"战略资产重估+提价逻辑+外资流入"支撑，估值处于 10 倍低位，推荐集装箱及海外资产占比高的招商港口、中远海运港口。 集运远期受红海恢复推迟支撑，估值有上修空间；干散货与特种船受直 接影响较小；红利资产（高速/铁路）当前以防御属性的相对收益为主。 航空板块春运收益企稳回升，客流同比增约 7%，票价涨约 5%；但中东 局势推升油价成核心压制变量，油价每升 1%影响大航盈利约 4 亿。 Q&A 截至 2026 年 3 月 3 日 20:00，中东局势升级的阶段性进展如何，未来 2~4 周的演化情形与航道风险如何 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers closed at 6.72 yuan on August 11, with an increase of 0.01 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 234,797 lots, with a total transaction amount of 158 million yuan [1] - COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers is primarily engaged in specialized ship transportation and related businesses, with a fleet size and technical capabilities among the industry leaders [1] Group 2 - The company's business scope covers major global shipping routes, transporting goods such as machinery, wind power equipment, and high-speed rail locomotives [1] - According to the company's announcement, the dividend distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024 is a cash dividend of 0.279 yuan per share (tax included) [1] - The record date for the dividend is August 18, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is August 19 [1]