粤开志恒宏观 . 以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 文/ 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 罗志恒 ，粤开证券资深宏观分析师 范 城恺 人工智能（AI）正在引领新一轮科技革命，成为大国博弈的关键领域。 大国科技竞争并非单纯的技术比拼，而是科技发展、产业应用与国家战略 的综合较量。全面理解中美AI竞争格局，不能单看一时的技术实力，更 需要从发展模式与战略选择视角进行比较分析。中美AI发展究竟处于何 种态势？双方在核心环节各有哪些优势与短板？两国AI发展模式有何差 异？未来这一竞争将如何演绎？本文立足AI全产业链核心环节与内在逻 辑展开系统分析。 实力：中美AI核心技术、底层基础及产业应用比较 中美人工智能（AI）竞争已进入深水区，对两国竞争格局的研判，需立足AI全产业链核心环节与内在逻辑展开系统分析。本部分聚焦技术与人才、底层 基础和产业应用三大层面，具体比较AI模型、芯片、算力基建、人才、稀土、能源和产业应用等七大关键环节。 技术与人才方面，AI模型、芯片与算力基建是中美AI竞争的核心战场，人才作为核心智力要素贯穿技术研发全流程。具 ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD holds a leading position in the server CPU market with over 40% market share and has expanded into the GPU sector to capitalize on AI opportunities, significantly boosting revenue growth in recent quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of fiscal year 2025, AMD achieved robust double-digit growth, driven by strong demand for EPYC server CPUs and the gaming segment's integration of AI features [2]. - For Q2 2025, AMD reported a consolidated revenue of $7.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, despite a slowdown in data center business growth due to export restrictions [4][7]. - The gaming and client segment saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 69%, attributed to high demand for the Radeon 9000 series GPUs and record sales of Ryzen desktop processors [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from approximately 24.5% in the previous year to 14.2%, primarily due to an $800 million inventory write-down related to data center exports [7]. Market Outlook - The overall demand environment remains positive, with data center business now accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from about 30% last year [10]. - The gaming and client segment continues to be the largest revenue source, representing 47% of total revenue, with strong demand for semi-custom SoCs and client CPUs [11]. - AMD plans to release its Q3 2025 earnings report in the first week of November, with market expectations for revenue of $8.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 28% [11]. Competitive Landscape - Despite short-term stability, AMD faces long-term challenges in the AI accelerator market, primarily due to NVIDIA's dominant position and mature software ecosystem [12][16]. - AMD's CEO has indicated plans to expand in the AI accelerator market, but capturing significant market share from NVIDIA is deemed unlikely [13]. - The company’s growth in the data center segment may be limited by the slow adoption of its ROCm platform compared to NVIDIA's CUDA platform [16]. Valuation Concerns - AMD's stock price has surged over 200% since April, leading to a high valuation with a forward P/E ratio close to 65, significantly above its five-year average of 38.6 [2][21]. - Analysts note that despite meeting EPS consensus expectations, market EPS forecasts for AMD have been revised downwards by over 20% for fiscal year 2025 [22]. - The current valuation premium lacks justification when compared to peers like NVIDIA, which has a forward P/E ratio of about 45 [21]. Conclusion - AMD is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth through fiscal year 2025, supported by strong demand in gaming and client segments [17]. - However, the company's long-term growth prospects are constrained by NVIDIA's dominance in the AI accelerator market, which may limit AMD's expansion plans in the data center segment [24].