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金信期货日刊-20250821
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Glass 2601 futures is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Continued weak demand and inventory accumulation may further pressure prices, while improved demand or policy incentives could lead to price stabilization and recovery [3]. - The short - term stock index futures market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [6]. - The probability of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to the gold market. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there will be a small - scale platform oscillation in the short term [10]. - Iron ore is in a callback phase and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support near the lower important support level [13]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. Consider going long at low prices after the price stabilizes [16]. - The palm oil market should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory outlook due to increased inventory pressure and lack of demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass 2601 Futures - From August 14 - 20, the closing price on August 14 was 1,220 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%. The production line remained unchanged, the start - up rate and weekly output were flat, but the manufacturer's inventory increased. From August 19 - 20, the market declined unilaterally, and the main contract on the 20th closed down 4.36% at 1,166 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,644,752 [3]. - The supply - side daily melting is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is at a high level with weak production and sales [3]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a positive line. The fiscal revenue growth rate turned positive in the first seven months, and the economic sentiment level rebounded. The bond market had a significant correction [6]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut and benefiting the gold market [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a callback. Technically, it continues to adjust and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. The steel mill's profit has improved, and the molten iron output remains high, with strong fundamental support, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [13][14]. Glass - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. There is no actual policy benefit during the current macro - vacuum period [16][17]. Palm Oil - The cumulative increase in the recent oil market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has decreased, and the profit - taking pressure has increased [19].