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接下来,好好存钱,你就是赢家
大胡子说房· 2025-07-19 05:14
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in China, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth in China has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped by 3.3%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The simultaneous decline in both indices indicates a broader trend of economic tightening [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8]. - The current economic environment is characterized by negative real interest rates, where holding cash is less beneficial compared to leveraging debt to acquire assets [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea illustrate how certain groups managed to maintain or grow their wealth during prolonged deflationary periods [17]. - The article suggests that understanding the importance of savings and adjusting asset allocation strategies is crucial for navigating the current economic transition [17][30]. Group 5: Structural Economic Issues - There is a structural contradiction in the economy where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth and purchasing power [21][22]. - This disparity complicates the resolution of the current economic challenges and may require significant policy changes to redistribute wealth [24]. Group 6: Recommended Asset Strategies - It is advised to maintain a significant portion of household wealth (60% to 80%) in low-risk, stable income-generating assets to weather the deflationary environment [33]. - The focus should be on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns during this period [34].
接下来,好好存钱,你就是赢家
大胡子说房· 2025-07-02 12:47
房子的价格为什么会回落? 这几年,相信大家都能意识到,此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 说一个扎心的数据: 根据机构统计的数据显示,这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币,降到现在的 300 万亿, 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中,居民财富主要流失的份额,大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水,基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 你可以说很多的原因,但是最根本的原因只有一个: 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中,有两个关键的数据值得关注: 第一个 是 PPI数据 ,这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价,下跌了3.3%; 第二个是 CPI数据 ,这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格,下跌3.6%。 这两个指数双双下跌,可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说,通S本身其实并不可怕,对于多数人而言,真正可怕的是: 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S,做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置? 原因很简单,就是 没有经历过通S 。 这事情其实就和谈恋爱是一样的—— 吃过见过的人,自然能应对自如;没有经历过的人,肯定要交学费。 可以说 过去这40年以来,我们从来没经历过这么 ...