黄金如何择时？20250825 黄金的定价逻辑主要受到实际利率和避险需求的影响。传统上，由于美元作为 世界货币，持有美元可以获得利息，而黄金作为不生息资产，其价格受实际利 率驱动。如果实际利率高，投资者更倾向于持有债券或存款而非黄金。然而， 自 2008 年金融危机后，美联储及其他央行实施量化宽松政策（QE），导致美 元超发，美国联邦政府债务显著上升。这引发了市场对美元信用风险的担忧。 特别是在 2022 年俄乌冲突后，美国对俄罗斯实施一系列制裁，包括冻结其资 产，使全球投资者开始质疑持有美元的安全性，从而推动了黄金作为避险资产 的需求，即便美债收益率较高，黄金价格仍然上涨。这表明在当前环境下，避 险价值相较于机会成本更具主导性。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔近期发表鸽派言 论，但短期内难以改变美元信用下行趋势。 从微观角度来看，金价主要受哪些因素驱动？ 从微观角度来看，金价主要受供需结构影响。全球黄金总储量相对稳定，每年 生产量也固定，因此金价更多受到需求波动影响。具体来说： 1. 工业需求：由于黄金具有独特特性，在某些工业领域必不可少，但其高 昂成本限制了使用范围，因此工业需求变化量不大，不是金价核心驱动 力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on how these cuts may affect the Chinese market, suggesting that while there may be short-term benefits, the overall impact may not be as significant as commonly perceived [2][28]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The current probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92% according to CME futures [3]. - The common belief is that a rate cut leads to a weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which would attract foreign capital into China [2][28]. - However, historical data shows that this assumption may not hold true, as past rate cuts have sometimes coincided with rising yields and a stronger dollar [2][8][12]. Group 2: Types of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts can be categorized into two types: recessionary cuts and preventive cuts. Recessionary cuts occur when the economy is under significant pressure, leading to a decline in yields and the dollar [8][10]. - Preventive cuts happen when economic pressure is less severe, allowing for smaller cuts that can quickly stimulate demand, often resulting in rising yields and a stronger dollar post-cut [12][15]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - The current economic indicators suggest that while there is pressure on the US economy, the situation is not dire enough to necessitate large rate cuts [25][28]. - Key metrics such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and housing sales indicate ongoing weakness, but the actual interest rates are close to natural rates, suggesting that minor cuts could suffice to stimulate the economy [19][25]. Group 4: Short-term vs Long-term Effects - In the short term, the anticipated rate cuts may provide liquidity and improve market sentiment, potentially benefiting the Chinese market [29][33]. - However, this short-term benefit may quickly reverse as the underlying economic conditions improve, leading to a potential rise in yields and the dollar, counteracting the initial positive effects [29][33]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - To maximize the benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, China could implement more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to support credit expansion [34][38]. - Additionally, sectors related to the US real estate market and traditional manufacturing may see increased demand, presenting opportunities for Chinese exports and commodities [44].

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, consistent with the growth rate from January to May[18] - The average year-on-year growth rate of retail sales from June 2024 to June 2025 was 4.1%, indicating an overall upward trend[18] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate during the same period was only 0.1%, highlighting a divergence between the volume and price of consumer spending[18] Group 2: Low Inflation Factors - Low inflation is primarily influenced by weak domestic demand, external input factors, and "involutionary competition" in the market[1] - The correlation coefficient between the year-on-year growth rates of production materials and living materials, after shifting the production materials curve back by 10 months, is 0.7, indicating a strong relationship[22] - The year-on-year decline in profits for coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and black metal mining industries was 53.0%, 11.5%, and 36.2% respectively, contributing to a 5.5 percentage point drag on industrial profits in the first half of 2025[3] Group 3: Impact of Low Inflation - As of June 2025, the average yield on ten-year government bonds was 1.66%, down 44 basis points from September 2024, while the actual interest rate rose slightly to 2.84%, up 12 basis points[3] - The weak inflation level has interfered with the downward path of actual interest rates, limiting the reduction in financing costs for the real economy[46] - The correlation coefficient between urban residents' future income confidence index and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial profits from 2020 to 2024 is 0.5, indicating a positive correlation[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include persistent inflation in developed economies, complex geopolitical situations, and slow recovery of expectations in the real estate sector[4] - The significant decline in real estate investment has negatively impacted construction industry investment growth, further affecting demand in the building materials sector[37]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that real interest rates are at extremely low levels [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment in Japan is characterized by persistently low real interest rates, which may influence investment decisions and economic growth [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated. Gold prices were affected by factors such as US - EU tariff negotiations, Fed policy expectations, and US economic data. Silver was relatively strong due to semiconductor demand and tight inventories. Looking ahead, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals, while strong US economic data may suppress gold prices in the short - term. If inflation expectations rise or the Fed gives more dovish signals, precious metal prices could be boosted again [7]. - Gold is recommended to be bought on dips in the range of $3300 - 3400 per ounce, and silver should be watched in the range of $38.50 - 39.50 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week due to US fiscal and political uncertainties and approaching US - EU tariff negotiation deadlines. However, they dropped on Wednesday as the US - Japan agreement and progress in US - EU negotiations eased risk - aversion. Fed policy interpretations were divided, and strong economic data weakened September rate - cut bets, further pressuring gold. Silver was relatively strong, with COMEX silver futures reaching a high of $39.66 per ounce, supported by semiconductor demand and tight inventories [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the US - EU tariff negotiation has eased, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Strong US economic data may suppress gold in the short - term, but rising inflation expectations or dovish Fed signals could lift prices [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX silver was at $39.100 per ounce, up 1.63% week - on - week; Shanghai silver futures contract 2510 was at 9392 yuan per kilogram, up 2.24%. COMEX gold was at $3356.3 per ounce, down 0.05%; Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 was at 777.32 yuan per gram, up 0.26% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 24, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 15208 tons, up 3.5% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 0.9% [15]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 448531 contracts, up 1.22%, and net positions were 213115, up 5.00%. COMEX silver total positions were 171474 contracts, up 5.33%, and net positions were 59448, up 1.58% [19]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, up 3.30%, and non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, down 2.70% [24]. - **Basis**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.64 yuan per gram, up 0.27%; the silver basis was - 35 yuan per kilogram, up 43.55% [27]. - **Inventories**: As of July 24, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37616678.62 ounces, up 1.27%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 28857 kilograms, up 17.38%. COMEX silver inventory was 497984759 ounces, up 0.30%; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1211076 kilograms, down 7.10% [32]. 3.3 Silver Industry and Supply - Demand - **Imports**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports were 273364.75 kilograms, down 0.14% month - on - month; silver ore imports were 126019303.00 kilograms, down 7.51% [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a monthly output of 4506000 pieces and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.80% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3%. Supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% [47][51]. 3.4 Gold Industry and Supply - Demand - **Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold recycling price was 774.7 yuan per gram, up 0.28%. Gold jewelry prices of brands like Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu also rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93%; jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47%; total demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% [61]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Bonds**: This week, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined slightly due to fluctuating tariff expectations. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility index rose, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [63][68]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Tariff negotiations made progress, and inflation expectations declined recently. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate dropped this week [72]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in China, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth in China has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped by 3.3%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The simultaneous decline in both indices indicates a broader trend of economic tightening [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8]. - The current economic environment is characterized by negative real interest rates, where holding cash is less beneficial compared to leveraging debt to acquire assets [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea illustrate how certain groups managed to maintain or grow their wealth during prolonged deflationary periods [17]. - The article suggests that understanding the importance of savings and adjusting asset allocation strategies is crucial for navigating the current economic transition [17][30]. Group 5: Structural Economic Issues - There is a structural contradiction in the economy where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth and purchasing power [21][22]. - This disparity complicates the resolution of the current economic challenges and may require significant policy changes to redistribute wealth [24]. Group 6: Recommended Asset Strategies - It is advised to maintain a significant portion of household wealth (60% to 80%) in low-risk, stable income-generating assets to weather the deflationary environment [33]. - The focus should be on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns during this period [34].

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that the actual interest rates paid by the Japanese government on its debt have risen more gradually and remain below inflation levels, which has supported the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio [1] Group 1 - The gradual increase in actual interest rates is a key factor in managing Japan's debt levels [1] - The current interest rates being lower than inflation is a significant aspect of the economic environment [1] - The decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively influenced by these factors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Market analysis: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices are expected to show a pattern of rising after consolidation. From July to August, gold prices will mostly consolidate due to the Fed's internal differences on future interest rate paths and Powell's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. After September, with the increase in rate cut expectations and the impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices are expected to strengthen. Silver prices may attract some investment demand due to the relatively high gold-silver ratio. The Fed's attitude towards rate cuts is cautious and there are internal differences. The passage of the Genius Act and SLR adjustment in mid-late June will reduce the possibility of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields in the short term, but the continuous expansion of the US debt scale may accumulate more hidden risks. Although the Israel-Iran conflict once intensified, the impact on inflation expectations was not significant. The recent CPI and PCE data are stable, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet appeared. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing. If Powell is replaced, rate cuts may accelerate. The eurozone economy is performing better than the US, and the US dollar may show a volatile and weak pattern in the future. In the first half of 2025, geopolitical factors did not cause a significant increase in inflation expectations, but Trump's tariff policies affected the US dollar's credit and pushed up gold prices. Gold remains an effective investment to deal with uncertainty [6]. - Strategy: In the second half of 2025, precious metal prices will first consolidate and then rise. From July to August, gold prices will consolidate, and after September, they are expected to strengthen. For gold, buy in batches at 750 - 760 yuan/gram and take profit at around 870 yuan/gram, with a stop-loss at 710 yuan/gram. For silver, buy in batches at 8,750 - 8,800 yuan/kg with a stop-loss at 8,550 yuan/kg. The option strategy for gold is to go long on the calendar spread [10]. Summary by Directory I. Summary of Central Bank Dynamics and Bond Market Conditions - **Global central banks slow down rate cuts but are generally worried about economic prospects**: The Fed's Powell is cautious about rate cuts, while the eurozone is more positive. Recently, the eurozone, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates, but central banks are cautious about future rate adjustments. Major central banks are worried about future economic prospects due to complex geopolitical factors and Trump's changing tariff policies [17]. - **The global bond market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. Pay attention to the liquidity risk of US Treasuries around X-day**: In May, the US sovereign credit rating was downgraded, and the auctions of US and Japanese long-term government bonds had weak demand, leading to a surge in yields. The rise in eurozone government bond yields was not as obvious as that in the US because the eurozone's debt structure is healthier. Japan's long-term government bond yields rose due to structural improvements in its economic fundamentals. The US is facing relatively large debt risks. Although the current market liquidity is relatively loose, the liquidity risk needs to be continuously monitored. The speculative positions of US Treasuries are starting to decline, which may challenge the auction and liquidity of US Treasuries in the future [22][31]. - **The advancement of the Genius Act: Using stablecoins to maintain the US dollar's hegemony in the digital economy?**: On June 18, the US Senate approved the GENIUS Stablecoin Regulatory Act, which aims to strengthen the US dollar's global dominance in the digital economy. After the passage of the act, the market value of compliant stablecoins such as USDC and USDT soared. Stablecoins may attract some funds that were originally invested in gold, especially in emerging markets. However, if the reserve assets of stablecoins face high uncertainty, the credibility of stablecoins may be affected [36]. - **The Fed passes the SLR reform plan to seek more buyers for US Treasuries**: On June 25, the Fed passed the SLR reform proposal, which adjusts the capital requirements for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The reform aims to balance financial stability and bank operational flexibility and provide clearer regulatory expectations. The adjustment of SLR will enable large banks to increase their allocation of US Treasuries. The US is taking various measures to increase the liquidity of US Treasuries, but the continuous expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale may accumulate greater hidden risks [42]. II. The US Dollar May Still Struggle to Maintain a Strong Long-Term Trend - **The probability of the Fed cutting rates in the future is still high**: Although Powell is cautious about rate cuts, Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for four consecutive months, and the economic leading indicators are declining. The market expects at least one rate cut this year. In the long run, Trump's radical fiscal policy may require monetary easing, and if Powell is replaced, rate cuts may proceed more smoothly [48]. - **The improving economic outlook in non-US regions also puts pressure on the US dollar**: The eurozone's economic performance has been gradually strengthening compared to the US since 2025. The eurozone's PMI data has been approaching or exceeding that of the US, and the US is showing a weaker pattern in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index compared to non-US regions, which will make it difficult for the US dollar to maintain a continuous strong trend [56]. III. The So-Called Safe-Haven Demand Is Just a表象 of Inflation Expectations and Concerns about the US Dollar's Credit - **Why was the gold price stable during the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict?**: During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold prices soared due to war-induced safe-haven demand and rising inflation. In contrast, during the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, the impact on inflation was limited, and there was no unified expectation of real interest rate changes, so the gold price remained stable. In the future, the possibility of a sharp rise in inflation in the short term is relatively low [59]. - **Global central banks' enthusiasm for allocating gold remains high, but US dollar assets are difficult to replace in the short term**: In June 2025, a survey by the World Gold Council showed that 76% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next five years, and 73% expect to reduce their US dollar asset allocation. Although US Treasuries are still the main choice for central bank asset allocation, central banks are increasing their gold allocation to hedge against the risks of the continuous expansion of US debt [62]. IV. Summary of Precious Metal Fundamentals - **The net long non-commercial positions of precious metals in the CFTC decreased significantly in the first half of the year**: In the first half of 2025, the net long speculative positions in gold in the CFTC decreased by 52,275 contracts (21.14%) to 195,004 contracts, while the net long speculative positions in silver increased by 25,058 contracts (66.14%) to 62,947 contracts. The global gold futures market open interest continues to reach new highs. The possibility of a significant decline in the gold market due to profit-taking by long speculators is relatively low [64]. - **The holdings of precious metal ETFs generally increased in the first half of the year**: In the first half of 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 80.01 tons to 952.53 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 450.64 tons to 14,826.61 tons. As of May 2025, the increase in global gold ETF holdings reached 322.4 tons, a new high in the past five years. In May, there was an outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, which corresponded to the consolidation of the gold price in May [69]. V. The Marginal Growth Rate of the Photovoltaic Industry May Slow Down, but the Long-Term Tight Supply Pattern of Silver Is Difficult to Change - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to peak between 2025 and 2026, and the growth trend will continue to be positive before that. The increase in silver production from mines will be relatively limited in the next few years, which may lead to a supply-demand contradiction in silver. In the next three years, the gold-silver ratio may decline towards a central level of around 65 - 70 times [77].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, $2,000 in August 2020, and reaching over $3,000 in March 2025[2][18] - The average production cost of gold increased by 45% from $1,003 per ounce in Q4 2020 to $1,456 in Q3 2024, while gold prices rose by 32% during the same period[6][30] - Investment demand for gold reached 42.1% of total demand in Q1 2025, up from an average of 29.1% from 2010 to 2024[4][22] Group 2: Demand Sources - The four main sources of gold demand are jewelry (43.7%), central bank purchases (23.6%), investment (25.7%), and technology (7.1%) as of 2024[4][19] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global mine production[4][24] - Gold jewelry demand averaged 49.6% of total demand from 2010 to 2024, making it the largest source of gold consumption[4][19] Group 3: Economic Influences - Actual interest rates are a key driver of gold price fluctuations; as rates rise, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets[7][35] - The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, totaling 525 basis points, which pressured gold prices down from $2,050 to $1,820 per ounce[7][35] - Global debt levels reached approximately $324 trillion in Q1 2025, with a $7.5 trillion increase in just three months, raising concerns about economic stability and boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven[10][50] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Market liquidity significantly impacts gold prices; increased liquidity typically raises gold demand, while tightening liquidity can lead to price declines[8][40] - In August 2020, gold prices exceeded $2,000 per ounce due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing measures during the pandemic[8][40] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a growing trend towards gold accumulation[11][54]