6年狂飙219%：黄金为何"停不下来"？ 2025年的黄金市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过：伦敦现货金价年内飙涨超50%，10月冲上4380美元/盎司的历史峰值，截至11月19日仍稳居4100美元上 方，创下1979年以来最强年度表现。更令人惊叹的是，自2019年启动第三轮上涨周期以来，黄金已连续6年走强，累计涨幅达219%，成为全球资产中"最 亮的星"。然而，站在历史高位，一个关键问题萦绕在投资者心头：黄金的上涨势头还能持续吗？地缘政治、央行购金、实际利率三大变量，将如何左右 未来走势？ 3. 实际利率：金价的"隐形推手" 黄金与实际利率呈负相关关系：实际利率越低，持有黄金的机会成本越低，金价越易上涨；反之则承压。2024年，美联储开启降息周期，实际利率下 行，成为金价上涨的重要推手。然而，未来利率路径存在不确定性：若美联储因通胀反弹而暂停降息，甚至重启加息，实际利率可能上行，对金价构成 压制。 未来展望：黄金还能"飞"多高？ 黄金的这轮上涨，堪称"教科书级"的慢牛行情。2019年，全球贸易摩擦升级、美联储开启降息周期，黄金从1200美元/盎司起步，开启第一波攻势；2020 年疫情冲击下，全球经济停摆，黄金 ...

自2019年开启第三轮上涨周期以来，黄金本轮涨势已持续6年，累计涨幅达219%，尽管相比前两轮最高涨幅仍有空间，但当前估值水平已引发市 场对后续走势的广泛关注。 2025年10月20日，COMEX黄金与伦敦现货黄金价格分别收于4374美元/盎司、4294美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅分别达66%和63%。尽管10月21日之 后，金价在暴跌后横盘震荡，但截至11月10日，金价仍较高点仅下降约5%，维持在历史性高位区间。 近日，东方财富证券在最新研报中复盘三轮黄金上涨周期，称黄金价格的持续走高主要受三重属性支撑。货币属性方面，美元相对黄金贬值已接 近100%，但10月美元指数止跌企稳可能压制金价；商品属性方面，央行购金需求2020年至2024年年均增长44%；金融属性方面，实际利率与金价 的传统负相关关系在高通胀环境下已部分失效。 对于接下来的金价能够继续上涨，该机构认为，地缘政治风险、黄金储备增长和实际利率变动成为本轮周期的三大关键变量，这些因素将决定黄 金价格能否延续上涨态势。 历史周期回顾：第三轮上涨仍有空间 报告称，自1968年以来，黄金共经历三轮上涨行情。 第一轮上涨从1970年至1980年，历时10年，最高 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 11月19日，沪金主力暂报937.00元/克，涨幅达1.09%，今日沪金主力开盘价922.54元/克，截至目前最高 938.32元/克，最低922.54元/克。 【宏观消息】 外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松同日本外务省亚大局局长金井正彰举行磋商。磋商结束后，刘劲松回应相关问 题时表示对磋商结果不满意，并称双方会面时气氛严肃。 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为自己已经选定了下一任美联储主席的人选，同时声称有人阻止他开除现任 美联储主席鲍威尔。贝森特表示，他已将候选范围缩小至以下人选：现任美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，前美 联储理事沃什，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特，以及贝莱德公司高管里德。 【机构观点】 今日黄金收于4080.47美元，日内波动-105.53美元。实际利率10年TIPS 4.14%较前值上升0.02%，对黄金 影响偏弱。名义利率变动0.03美元指数变动0.1115，短期节奏偏强压制金价。从中期来看，Q3以来名义 利率和美元指数形成背离，金价中性，资金结构方面，截止10月底，全球黄金ETF持仓为3892.6吨，处 于年内较高水平，资金面表现相对积极。宏观事件方面，重点关注美国 10 月住房开工与建 ...

Core Insights - On November 13, 2025, global financial markets focused on precious metals, with international spot gold prices experiencing notable fluctuations, reaching $4,129.2 per ounce [1] - The domestic gold market also showed complex dynamics, with real-time prices providing investors with immediate market references [2] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The domestic gold price was reported at 946.3 RMB per gram, while silver, platinum, and palladium prices were 11.6 RMB, 365.7 RMB, and 332.6 RMB per gram respectively [2] - Various jewelry brands offered different retail prices for gold, with notable examples including Chow Tai Fook at 1,313 RMB per gram for gold jewelry and 642 RMB for platinum [5] Gold Price Trends - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 942.19 RMB per gram, down 4.31 RMB from the previous trading day, reflecting a decline of 0.455% [6] - The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a high of 949.22 RMB and a low of 938.16 RMB [6] Financial Institutions' Gold Bar Pricing - Different financial institutions offered varying prices for their gold bars, with prices ranging from 936.1 RMB to 976 RMB per gram [7] - For instance, the Agricultural Bank's gold bar was priced at 945.2 RMB per gram, while the higher-priced option from Qianjiaxin was 1,072 RMB per gram [7] Investment Logic Behind Gold Price Movements - Recent adjustments in international gold prices followed a significant prior increase, with London spot gold prices dipping below $4,000 per ounce [8] - Factors influencing this trend included a strengthening dollar, high interest rates, and a shift in global investor risk appetite [8][9] Dollar and Interest Rate Impact - A strong dollar typically pressures gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; recent Federal Reserve actions have contributed to a stronger dollar [9] - High yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, currently above 4.1%, have led investors to reassess the opportunity cost of holding gold [9] Evolving Investor Sentiment - The allure of gold as a safe-haven asset has diminished as geopolitical and financial risks have eased, prompting a shift of funds towards equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies [10] - The adjustment in gold prices reflects a rebalancing of market investment logic rather than panic selling or a decline in gold's intrinsic value [10]

Group 1 - The cautious sentiment in the precious metals sector is driven by changes in real interest rates, which are inversely related to the prices of precious metals [1] - Previous expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve led to a decline in real interest rates, supporting the prices of gold and silver [1] - As expectations for rate cuts diminish, the upward pressure on real interest rates increases, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals and causing price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Precious metals possess safe-haven attributes, which may attract investment if high interest rates from the Federal Reserve increase global economic growth risks or geopolitical tensions escalate [1] - There exists a conflict between short-term cautious expectations and long-term support for precious metals, creating a dynamic market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that an acceleration in productivity improvements is projected to lead to higher real interest rates according to models presented by the Federal Reserve's Williams [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices and the continuous drop in A-shares have led to a significant decrease in gold and precious metal-related ETFs, although there has been a net inflow of funds into gold stock ETFs despite the downturn [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - As of 14:10 on November 4, the performance of various ETFs was as follows: Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.89%, Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) dropped by 3.65%, and Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 3.88% [1] - The holdings of the Gold Stock ETF, including companies like WanGuo Gold Group, saw declines exceeding 6%, while Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Jiangxi Copper also experienced significant losses [1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Despite the three-day decline in the Gold Stock ETF (159562), it recorded a net inflow of funds totaling 57.12 million yuan over the same period [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Major Wall Street banks remain optimistic about the future of gold prices, with UBS stating that the current price drop is temporary and maintaining a year-end target of $4,200 per ounce [1] - UBS also indicated that if geopolitical or market risks escalate, gold prices could potentially rise to $4,700 per ounce within the year [1] - GF Securities noted that the decline in real interest rates continues to provide marginal support for gold prices, with expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a halt to balance sheet reduction in December [1] - The continuation of monetary easing and rising inflation are expected to support gold prices, with ETF investments and central bank purchases being key drivers for sustained upward movement [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, and plans to end balance sheet reduction by December 1, 2025, with all maturing U.S. Treasury securities being reinvested [1] - The breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.04% to 2.40%, while the U.S. September CPI rose by 3.02% year-on-year, up from 2.94%, indicating a rebound for five consecutive months [2] - The dollar index increased by 2.1% in October, influenced by hawkish statements from Fed Chairman Powell regarding future rate cuts [3] Group 2: Market Risks and Global Trends - The VIX index peaked in mid-October but significantly declined due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff risks, while geopolitical uncertainties remain high following the cancellation of a summit between Trump and Putin [3] - In 2024, global central banks have cumulatively purchased 1,044.63 tons of gold, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of net purchases, with a notable increase in global gold ETF holdings as of 2025 [3] Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Outlook - A new tax policy regarding gold transactions will take effect on November 1, 2025, which may initially pressure physical demand but could enhance the financial attributes of gold in the long term [4] - The short-term outlook for gold is cautiously bullish, with expectations of upward movement due to anticipated declines in real interest rates [5][6] - Silver prices are also expected to trend cautiously upward, sharing macroeconomic logic with gold amid expectations of lower future interest rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold remains uncertain with high volatility, and geopolitical risks are easing. Without unexpected positive factors, London gold is expected to consolidate before reaching new highs in the first quarter of next year [1][13]. Group 1: Recent Market Movements - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to high implied volatility and profit-taking after substantial gains, alongside a market that has over-priced geopolitical instability, particularly in U.S.-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have shown signs of easing [2][5]. Group 2: Long-term Bullish Logic for Gold - Macroeconomic Narrative: Since the pandemic, U.S. debt and fiscal deficits have expanded, with federal debt reaching historical highs. Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. Treasuries are impacting the international capital flow system. The expansion of the U.S. twin deficits is forcing a crisis transfer abroad, amidst rising global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. There are three potential solutions to the global debt issue: (1) unexpected high inflation that erodes debt, benefiting gold and commodities; (2) technological advancements leading to economic growth that mitigates debt, favoring AI technology; (3) proactive fiscal tightening, which may exacerbate domestic and international conflicts and reverse globalization [5][6]. Group 3: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Fundamental Factors: A decline in real interest rates continues to provide marginal support for gold prices. Following the October meeting, the Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of rate cuts and plans to halt balance sheet reduction in December, with ongoing monetary easing and rising inflation expected to support gold prices [9]. - Financial Factors: ETF investments and central bank purchases of gold remain key drivers for sustained price increases. Since late August, European investors have been notably absent. If the U.S. economy weakens further, European investors are likely to divest from dollar assets and reinvest in gold, potentially driving prices to new highs. Additionally, the ongoing global debt crisis is leading to a restructuring of the monetary credit system, de-dollarization, and a trend of central banks continuing to purchase gold, all of which will support gold price increases [10].