在很多人眼里，未来5年，国内贬值最快的是现金。主要原因是，我国央行货币超发严重，截至2025年8月末，中国广义货币供应量M2总额为331.98万亿 元，同比增长8.8%。M2规模是GDP的2倍，未来现金会越来越不值钱。但实际上，2025年8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%。国内经济总体呈现通货 紧缩的趋势。 而导致货币超发严重，经济呈现通缩的原因有两个：一个是国内超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向社会。这就导致了社会各界都在喊缺钱。超发货 币之所以没有流向实体经济，主要是市场信心恢复还需要较长时间。 另一个是，现在实体经济都不景气，居民收入增长放缓或下降，消费需求出现萎缩。如此一来，企业生产出来的商品，库存积压严重，为了及时回笼资金， 只好把商品降价出售。 对于当前国内通缩的经济周期，有业内人士提醒大家：不出5年，国内贬值最快的不是现金，而是这4样东西，普通家庭要注意了。他们分别是：①房子；② 车子；③学历；④收藏品。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房子将逐步回归"居住属性" ②现在国内居民收入增长放缓或下降，已经支撑不起当前的高房价。③中国已经进入到老龄化社会。老年人越来越多，都有了属于自己的房子。 ...

中新社曼谷10月6日电据泰国《民族报》6日报道，泰国9月份通胀率同比下降0.72%，这是今年该国通 胀率连续第六个月下降。 报道称，通胀率下降缘于物价下降，而物价下降主要归因于政府采取的民生纾困措施降低了燃料和电价 等能源价格，以及新鲜食品成本的降低。 泰国商务部贸易政策和战略办公室主任南塔蓬·吉拉勒特蓬解释说，尽管总体数据持续下降，泰国经济 并未陷入通货紧缩，因为核心消费者物价指数仍然保持正值，这表明国内购买需求仍然存在。 南塔蓬说，国内需求持续存在，这反映在核心通胀率没有下降的事实上，尤其是在熟食和娱乐行业。此 外，就业率仍处于正常水平。因此，各项指标均不符合通货紧缩的标准。 展望未来，泰国商务部预计2025年第四季度通胀率将"接近于零"，且在某些月份有可能转为负值。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether to invest 500,000 in real estate or keep it in a bank by 2025, with a prevailing opinion suggesting that saving in a bank is the safer option due to potential declines in the real estate market [2][4][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - Wang Jianlin argues that the domestic real estate market has peaked after over 20 years of growth, indicating limited future appreciation and a higher likelihood of price declines [4][6]. - The average national housing price has seen a decline of over 30%, reinforcing the notion that investing in real estate may lead to significant losses [6][13]. - The current economic climate suggests that the real estate market is entering a downturn, making it a less favorable investment option [13]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Keeping 500,000 in a bank ensures the safety of the principal amount, even though interest rates are low, while investing in real estate could lead to substantial value depreciation [6][13]. - Purchasing property typically requires taking on significant debt, which adds financial pressure, whereas saving in a bank avoids this burden and provides some interest income [9][13]. - The liquidity of bank savings is superior to that of real estate, allowing for easier access to funds in case of emergencies, which is crucial in a deflationary economic environment [11][13].

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected amid calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - Experts had anticipated a faster rate cut due to lower-than-expected total demand and inflation in the Russian economy [1] Group 2 - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18.00%, maintaining a tight monetary policy to achieve inflation targets by 2026 [2] - The bank expects the average key interest rate for this year to be between 18.8% and 19.6%, with a target of 12.0% to 13.0% by 2026 [2] - Inflation is projected to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year and stabilize at 4.0% by 2026, with the second quarter of 2025 showing a drop in inflation from 8.2% to 4.8% [2] Group 3 - The labor market has shown signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth remains above productivity [3] - The unemployment rate is at historical lows, but labor shortages pose a potential inflation risk if domestic demand accelerates without a corresponding increase in productivity [3] - Credit expansion is slower than in previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans see moderate growth [3] Group 4 - The Central Bank acknowledges persistent inflation risks but also considers deflation risks, particularly if credit and demand cool faster than expected [3] - Fiscal policy is a crucial factor in the bank's forecasts, with the assumption that the government will maintain its current fiscal stance through 2025 [3][4] - The Central Bank is focused on returning to sustainable low inflation levels, requiring patience and caution in decision-making [4]

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected despite calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - The Central Bank's decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with expectations of maintaining tight conditions until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Central Bank projects inflation to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year, with a target of 4.0% by 2026, indicating a long-term commitment to tight monetary policy [2] - Recent data shows a decline in inflation indicators, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 2025 to 4.8% in Q2 2025 [2] - The labor market is showing signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth still exceeds productivity [3] Group 3 - Credit expansion is slowing compared to previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans are experiencing moderate growth [3] - The Central Bank acknowledges that inflation risks remain prevalent, but also considers the risk of deflation due to faster-than-expected cooling of credit and demand [3][4] - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in its forecasts, indicating potential adjustments to interest rate paths if fiscal policies change [3][4]

Group 1 - The Turkish central bank significantly lowered interest rates, reducing the one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [1] - The overnight lending rate was decreased from 46% to 43.5%, and the overnight borrowing rate from 41.5% to 39% [1] - The central bank's decision reflects a faster pace of easing than many traders anticipated, which may continue to exert pressure on the Turkish lira in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The Turkish lira's exchange rate remained relatively stable at 41.295 lira per US dollar following the interest rate cut [1] - The central bank's statement indicated that while inflation trends are easing, domestic final demand remains weak despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter [1] - The August inflation rate rose to 33%, higher than economists' expectations, prompting major banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to revise their interest rate cut forecasts [1] Group 3 - The central bank removed the phrase "pursuing the real appreciation of the lira" from its decision document, indicating a shift in its monetary policy framework [5] - The central bank aims to maintain disinflation through "demand, exchange rates, and expectations channels," with potential for slight depreciation of the lira if local assets remain attractive [6] - Analysts suggest that maintaining a faster rate of easing while keeping the lira appreciation standard would be unwise, indicating a potential subtle change in daily currency management [7] Group 4 - Political uncertainty is rising in Turkey, with escalating confrontations between the main opposition party and the judiciary, leading to bond and stock sell-offs [7] - A court case regarding the Republican People's Party (CHP) is set for September 15, which could result in the removal of the party's national leadership and the appointment of a trustee [7]

Group 1 - The Thai Research Center has revised its inflation forecast for Thailand in 2025 from 0.3% to 0.1% [1][2] - In August, Thailand's inflation rate was recorded at -0.79%, marking the fifth consecutive month of negative inflation and the lowest level since January 2024 [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a broad range of products, with 183 items (approximately 40% of the inflation basket of 464 items) showing price decreases compared to July [1] Group 2 - Core inflation in August 2025 remains positive at 0.81%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about high living costs despite some price reductions [1] - Prices for certain goods, such as instant food, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials, continue to rise, contributing to a decrease in consumer confidence index to 47.9 [1] - The forecast for the third quarter indicates negative inflation slightly below expectations, while the fourth quarter is expected to turn positive but still below previous forecasts due to factors like falling domestic fuel prices and reduced domestic demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent low inflation despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt repayment and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money went to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached $586.7 billion in the first half of 2025, but foreign currency deposits hit a record high of $824.87 billion, indicating that much of the earnings from exports are not being converted back to RMB [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas, investing in high-yield assets rather than bringing the funds back to China [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategy - The article suggests that attracting foreign and repatriated funds to the Hong Kong capital market is crucial for stabilizing the economy and enhancing wealth effects [11][13]. - The push for Hong Kong's capital market is seen as a strategy to create a favorable environment for investment, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent deflationary pressures despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt servicing and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD, indicating a significant increase in foreign currency holdings by export enterprises [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates the inflation situation [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks directly [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's markets [13].

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of China's economy, where a large population coexists with weak consumer purchasing power despite high GDP figures [1][3][4] - It discusses the struggles of low-income workers, such as delivery riders and factory employees, who face harsh working conditions and low wages, contributing to the wealth accumulation of the affluent [3][6][7] Economic Conditions - China's economic model relies on land revenue to subsidize infrastructure, resulting in low transportation costs and affordable logistics [3][4] - The country is experiencing deflationary pressures, with a significant 18% drop in foreign trade orders and a 40% decrease in land fiscal revenue compared to three years ago [4][6] Labor Market Dynamics - The minimum wage in Shanghai is only 2,690 yuan, while some workers earn as little as 2,200 yuan, highlighting the disparity between high GDP and low wages [3][6] - Many companies fail to provide basic social security for employees, with a significant number of labor disputes arising from inadequate compensation practices [6][7] Government Initiatives - The government introduced a child-rearing subsidy of 300 yuan per month per child, covering 610,000 families in its first year, but the amount is insufficient to cover basic childcare costs [6][7] - The subsidy is designed to be tax-exempt and not deducted from social welfare benefits, yet it may not effectively address the underlying economic challenges faced by low-income families [6][7]