通货紧缩时期，对于持有现金的人而言，无疑是一段令人欣喜的时光。他们的购买力悄然提升，手中之钱愈发"值钱"，而物价的持续下跌正是通缩最鲜明的 标志。 细究日常，便可窥见一斑。去年猪肉尚需三十余元一斤，如今不过十八元便可得，同样的开销，能够多添近一斤肉食，这绝非小数。家用电器亦然，曾标价 三千五百元的洗衣机，如今已降至三千出头，跌幅近乎百分之十五。就连汽车这等大宗商品，曾经二十五万元的中档轿车，现在十八万元便可入手，手握现 金，相当于白白省下了七万元。 或许有人会觉得银行存款利息微薄，放之银行难以划算。然则，利息纵然不高，亦是实实在在的正收益。而物价下跌所带来的隐性收益，其可观程度远胜于 此。这种"钱未多赚，却能购得更多物品"的感受，正是现金在通缩期的硬核优势，手持现金者，自然暗自窃喜。 其次，现金还能有效规避投资风险，做到"不亏即赚"。当前，不少人因嫌存款利息低，便急于将资金投向股票、基金，期盼一夜暴富。然而，现实却是残酷 的：2024年，股民人均亏损竟达十四万元；部分公募基金更是跌幅高达百分之二十，连过往被视为稳妥之选的银行理财产品，亦不乏出现亏损者。与此相 对，那些手中持有现金的人，尽管利息收入不多，但本金 ...

近年来，中国房地产市场正经历一场深刻的调整。截至2024年10月，全国百城二手住宅平均价格已跌至每平方米14360元，环比下降0.60%，这已是连续第 29个月的下跌。昔日风光无限的炒房客，在高位入场后，如今正面临着巨大的亏损。 是什么导致了国内房价持续下行？原因主要有三点。首先，历经三年疫情的冲击，各行各业都遭受重创，许多人的收入锐减甚至失业，百姓的购买力已难以 支撑过高的房价。数据显示，一线城市房价收入比高达40，二三线城市也达到25，购房压力可见一斑。其次，房价下跌已持续三年，房地产市场的赚钱效应 早已消失殆尽，众多炒房客选择退出或持观望态度，进一步加剧了市场的下行趋势。再次，疫情之后，购房者变得更加理性，他们会根据自身的实际情况来 决定是否购房，不再像过去那样盲目冲动。 原因如下：首先，当前中国经济呈现出通货紧缩的态势。今年1至10月，国内CPI指数仅为0.3%，远低于年初3%的预期目标。这意味着，手握大量现金，在 购买房产、奢侈品、汽车、家电等商品时的购买力实际上是在上升，而非贬值。其次，今明两年，许多人可能会感到赚钱越来越困难。持有大量现金，能够 应对失业、疾病等突发事件，从而平滑人生的波动。反之 ...

Core Insights - In Q3 2025, China's exports exceeded expectations with a growth of 6.6%, while industrial added value grew by 5.8%. However, nominal GDP only increased by 3.7%, indicating economic slowdown primarily due to a 6.3% decline in fixed asset investment and widening income disparity, leading to weak consumption growth of only 3.4% per capita [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The nominal GDP for Q3 2025 reached 35.45 trillion yuan, with a comparable growth of 4.8% and a nominal growth of 3.7%, reflecting a decline from Q2's 5.2% and 3.9% respectively [4]. - Industrial added value in Q3 was 10.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 29.2% of GDP, with a comparable growth of 5.8% but a nominal growth of only 2.8%, indicating a significant drop in domestic consumption [6]. Investment and Consumption Challenges - Fixed asset investment in Q3 was 12.33 trillion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, impacting GDP growth by approximately 2.2 percentage points. This decline has been attributed to reduced profits in state-owned enterprises and a contraction in private capital [9]. - Consumer spending showed weakness, with retail sales growth declining from 6.4% in May to 3% in September. Per capita disposable income grew by only 4.7%, with significant income disparity affecting consumption rates [11][12]. Structural Economic Risks - The reliance on fixed asset investment and exports has made the economy vulnerable, with structural risks becoming more pronounced. The long-term dependence on external variables for growth has highlighted the urgent need for a shift towards domestic consumption as a growth driver [14]. - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand have exacerbated these structural issues, necessitating immediate action to rebalance the economy [14][18]. Policy Recommendations - There is a pressing need for proactive structural measures to support consumer spending, as the current growth model relying heavily on exports is unsustainable. The focus should shift towards enhancing social security and increasing household income to stimulate domestic consumption [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The podcast discusses the significant investment gap in AI data center construction, estimating that achieving a 10% capital return requires $1-2 trillion in revenue, while good returns may necessitate $3-4 trillion in revenue, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current AI business models [1][10][19]. Investment and Revenue Projections - AI data center construction is projected to require investments in the range of trillions, with $400 billion expected to be spent this year alone [7][10]. - To break even, approximately $500 billion in revenue is needed, indicating a need for a 30-fold increase in revenue to achieve profitability [10][19]. - The current AI industry revenue is estimated at $15-20 billion, which is insufficient to support the projected costs of data center construction [10][19]. AI Business Model Flaws - The AI business models, such as those of ChatGPT and similar platforms, are criticized for their high substitutability and lack of customer loyalty, leading to price wars that could reduce profit margins to just above energy costs [1][10][15]. - The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) means that free versions will remain sufficiently effective, discouraging users from paying for premium services [1][14]. Comparison to Historical Bubbles - The current AI investment landscape is likened to the telecom bubble of 2000, where companies created fictitious revenues through financing schemes, suggesting a potential repeat of history with significant losses for investors [2][24]. - The cyclical nature of investments in AI is highlighted, with the potential for repeated failures as companies continuously pour money into projects without clear paths to profitability [19][24]. Market Dynamics and Competition - The competitive landscape is characterized by a race to the bottom in pricing, where companies undercut each other to attract users, ultimately leading to unsustainable business practices [15][17]. - The discussion includes concerns about the long-term viability of major players like Microsoft and Meta, who may face significant write-offs as they invest heavily in AI infrastructure [19][24]. Infrastructure and Investment Strategies - There is a trend of purchasing land for data center construction, reminiscent of the housing market speculation prior to the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a speculative bubble in AI infrastructure [2][41]. - The reliance on private equity and venture capital to fund these investments raises questions about the sustainability and valuation of AI-related assets [2][19].

Group 1 - The essence of deflation is a decrease in money supply or a slowdown in circulation speed, leading to insufficient total demand and a general, persistent decline in prices [2] - Historical descriptions of deflation in ancient China highlight the negative impact on farmers, with phrases like "物贱伤农" indicating that low agricultural prices harm farmers' income [3] - The phenomenon of "钱少物贱" illustrates the insufficient circulation of currency, resulting in difficulties in selling goods and continuous price drops, ultimately leading to a contraction in trade [3][4] Group 2 - During the Qin and Han dynasties, the economic model was relatively simple, but deflation was closely linked to the rise and fall of the dynasty, with historical records indicating a mismatch between agricultural production and currency circulation [6] - The Tang and Song dynasties faced severe challenges in their currency systems, with the demand for money increasing due to economic prosperity, yet the supply of copper coins was insufficient, leading to a "money shortage" [8] - The Ming and Qing dynasties transitioned to a silver-based currency system, which introduced new deflation risks, particularly when international silver supply fluctuated, impacting the domestic economy [9][10] Group 3 - Historical cases of deflation in ancient China reveal the vulnerability and instability of the currency supply, which can lead to economic stagnation or collapse when supply issues arise [12] - The fluctuation of agricultural prices is not only an economic issue but also a political one, as low prices can lead to social unrest and potentially the downfall of dynasties [12] - Government responses to deflation, such as issuing paper money or adjusting tax structures, often lacked effective theoretical guidance and credit support, resulting in limited success [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid devaluation of cash in China is anticipated over the next five years due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 money supply reaching 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, while consumer prices are experiencing deflation, indicating a trend towards economic contraction [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The monetary overproduction is primarily due to excess liquidity within the financial system that is not reaching the real economy, leading to a perception of cash scarcity [3]. - The slowdown in income growth and shrinking consumer demand are contributing to economic deflation, resulting in significant inventory accumulation for businesses, forcing them to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Group 2: Asset Devaluation - Real estate prices are expected to continue their downward trend, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities dropping to 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of price decline [5]. - The automotive industry is facing a price war, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury imports seeing reductions up to 90,000 yuan, while second-hand electric vehicles are depreciating rapidly [8]. - The value of university degrees is declining due to an oversupply of graduates, with 12.22 million expected to graduate in 2025, and a lack of practical experience among graduates making them less attractive to employers [10]. - The collectibles market is experiencing a downturn, with significant price drops in items like the panda stamp and modern artworks, as reduced disposable income limits demand for such investments [13].

Core Insights - Thailand's inflation rate decreased by 0.72% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline in 2023 [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling prices, primarily due to government measures that reduced fuel and electricity prices, as well as lower costs for fresh food [1] - Despite the overall decline in inflation, the core consumer price index remains positive, indicating sustained domestic demand [1] Economic Indicators - The Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce, Nattapong Jiralertpong, stated that the core inflation rate has not decreased, particularly in the prepared food and entertainment sectors, reflecting ongoing domestic demand [1] - Employment rates are reported to be at normal levels, further supporting the notion that the economy is not experiencing deflation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that the inflation rate may approach zero by the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential for negative values in certain months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether to invest 500,000 in real estate or keep it in a bank by 2025, with a prevailing opinion suggesting that saving in a bank is the safer option due to potential declines in the real estate market [2][4][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - Wang Jianlin argues that the domestic real estate market has peaked after over 20 years of growth, indicating limited future appreciation and a higher likelihood of price declines [4][6]. - The average national housing price has seen a decline of over 30%, reinforcing the notion that investing in real estate may lead to significant losses [6][13]. - The current economic climate suggests that the real estate market is entering a downturn, making it a less favorable investment option [13]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Keeping 500,000 in a bank ensures the safety of the principal amount, even though interest rates are low, while investing in real estate could lead to substantial value depreciation [6][13]. - Purchasing property typically requires taking on significant debt, which adds financial pressure, whereas saving in a bank avoids this burden and provides some interest income [9][13]. - The liquidity of bank savings is superior to that of real estate, allowing for easier access to funds in case of emergencies, which is crucial in a deflationary economic environment [11][13].

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected amid calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - Experts had anticipated a faster rate cut due to lower-than-expected total demand and inflation in the Russian economy [1] Group 2 - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18.00%, maintaining a tight monetary policy to achieve inflation targets by 2026 [2] - The bank expects the average key interest rate for this year to be between 18.8% and 19.6%, with a target of 12.0% to 13.0% by 2026 [2] - Inflation is projected to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year and stabilize at 4.0% by 2026, with the second quarter of 2025 showing a drop in inflation from 8.2% to 4.8% [2] Group 3 - The labor market has shown signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth remains above productivity [3] - The unemployment rate is at historical lows, but labor shortages pose a potential inflation risk if domestic demand accelerates without a corresponding increase in productivity [3] - Credit expansion is slower than in previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans see moderate growth [3] Group 4 - The Central Bank acknowledges persistent inflation risks but also considers deflation risks, particularly if credit and demand cool faster than expected [3] - Fiscal policy is a crucial factor in the bank's forecasts, with the assumption that the government will maintain its current fiscal stance through 2025 [3][4] - The Central Bank is focused on returning to sustainable low inflation levels, requiring patience and caution in decision-making [4]

Group 1 - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 without providing a reason for the halt [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17.00% on September 12, which was less than expected despite calls for more aggressive easing due to economic slowdown [1] - The Central Bank's decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with expectations of maintaining tight conditions until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Central Bank projects inflation to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% this year, with a target of 4.0% by 2026, indicating a long-term commitment to tight monetary policy [2] - Recent data shows a decline in inflation indicators, with the overall inflation rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 2025 to 4.8% in Q2 2025 [2] - The labor market is showing signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting staff shortages, although wage growth still exceeds productivity [3] Group 3 - Credit expansion is slowing compared to previous years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans are experiencing moderate growth [3] - The Central Bank acknowledges that inflation risks remain prevalent, but also considers the risk of deflation due to faster-than-expected cooling of credit and demand [3][4] - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in its forecasts, indicating potential adjustments to interest rate paths if fiscal policies change [3][4]