中新网曼谷2月12日电 (李映民 刘宇博)泰国开泰研究中心12日发布报告称，2026年泰国仍存在通货紧缩 风险。在国内需求放缓、进口商品增加导致市场竞争加剧的背景下，居民消费价格指数篮子中价格下跌 商品的比例持续扩大。 报告指出，目前泰国尚未明显进入通货紧缩状态，而是处于低通胀、通缩压力上升阶段，主要由于核心 通货膨胀率仍为正值，民间消费保持增长。 官方数据显示，2026年1月泰国通货膨胀率为-0.66%，已连续第十个月为负，且较上月的-0.28%进一步 扩大。 尽管面临能源价格下行带来的供应侧压力，开泰研究中心仍维持2026年全年通货膨胀率0.4%的预测。 该机构认为，部分生鲜食品价格趋升，加之核心通胀率预计维持正值，将对整体物价形成支撑。预计自 2026年第二季度起，通胀率有望回升至正值区间，原因包括去年同期基数较低，以及厄尔尼诺现象可能 导致部分生鲜食品减产，推动价格回升。 报告同时指出，2026年全年通胀率虽将保持正增长，但增速料放缓，这一趋势已在2025年第四季度核心 通胀率回落中显现。食品和饮料类商品价格仍将上涨，但涨幅预计收窄，反映出居民购买力仍偏弱、缺 乏额外消费刺激措施。同时，旅游业逐步复苏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk emphasizes concerns over the U.S. debt crisis, predicting that without the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, the U.S. economy is inevitably heading towards collapse [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Concerns - The total U.S. debt stands at $38.5 trillion, with annual interest payments around $1 trillion, exceeding the military budget [1][3]. - Debt servicing costs surpass expenditures on social programs like Medicare [4]. Group 2: Role of AI and Robotics - Musk believes that AI and robotics are the only viable solutions to address the national debt crisis, stating that without these technologies, the country is "1000%" destined for bankruptcy [2][4]. - He argues that sufficient time is needed to develop AI and robotics to avert national bankruptcy [2][4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The deployment of AI and robotics could lead to significant increases in the production of goods and services, potentially causing severe deflation due to the inability to rapidly increase the money supply [2][4].

综合各方面因素，泰国商务部维持对2026年全年通胀率0.0%至1.0%的预测不变。该部门预计，泰国总 体通胀率在第一季度平均为-0.43%，第二季度回升并转为正值，约为0.34%，第三季度升至0.90%，第 四季度进一步上行至1.15%。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 娜提雅援引2025年12月的数据称，泰国总体通胀率为-0.28%。 中新社曼谷2月5日电 (李映民刘宇博)泰国商务部贸易政策与战略办公室副主任娜提雅5日表示，2026年1 月，泰国居民消费者价格指数为99.91，同比下降0.66%，已连续10个月处于通货紧缩区间。 娜提雅指出，通胀持续回落主要受能源类价格下降影响，相关走势与全球能源市场价格变化基本一致。 尽管食品及非酒精饮料类价格有所上涨，但其他商品和服务价格变动对整体通胀水平的影响相对有限。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver and other dollar-denominated precious metals are losing ground due to a strengthening dollar, influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that she would not support another rate cut without clearer evidence of slowing inflation, emphasizing concerns over stagnation and deflation more than worries about a weak labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing the safe-haven demand for silver, with upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, although the agenda remains unclear [2] Group 2 - The silver futures market is currently trading above 19,596, with a recent high of 24,570 and a low of 18,500, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The domestic sentiment around silver is warming, with the silver price showing signs of stabilization and potential rebound, as long as it remains above 24,500 [3] - The domestic silver premium remains at 3,300 yuan per kilogram, and the main contract is expected to operate within the range of 22,000 to 24,500 [3]

⾼盛交易部⻔解读沃什将如何影响利率、美联储资 产负债表和市场 泰勒·德登 2026年2⽉3⽇，星期⼆，上午10:55 ⼀夜之间，⾼盛的研究和交易团队发表了他们对⼀个迅速成为市场最重要话题的观点：美联储主席 凯⽂·沃什将如何影响市场。 以下摘录部分要点： 对于时间紧迫的读者，我们摘录了⾼盛经济学家⼤卫·梅⾥克（David Mericle）的⼀份报告的主要 内容，该报告探讨了凯⽂·沃什（Kevin Warsh）担任美联储理事将如何影响市场，题为《 凯⽂ · 沃 什论利率政策、资产负债表政策和⾦融监管》 （仅限专业订阅⽤⼾阅读）。以下是重点内容 （我们 将在下⽂深⼊探讨该报告）。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 接下来，我们将总结⾼盛交易员 对沃什⽴场的主要看法（ 详情⻅下⽂ ）。 ...

首先，银行存款虽收益降低，但风险可控；投资房产则面临巨大不确定性。尽管当前银行存款利率持续走低，已进入"1时代"，但本金安全依然有保障。反 观房地产市场，各地房价持续调整，部分地区房价跌幅甚至超过30%。对于手握50万的家庭而言，将钱存入银行，最多只是损失部分利息收入，但至少可以 确保资金安全。而如果将这50万用于购房，未来几年很可能面临房产贬值的困境。因此，在2025年将50万存入银行，实际上是规避了资产泡沫的风险。待未 来房价回归合理区间，再伺机将这笔存款用于投资房产，或许能成为人生的赢家。 其次，购房需背负沉重债务，存款则可享受利息收益。在二三线城市，50万的首付或许只能购买一套小户型，而在上海、深圳等一线城市，这点资金甚至不 足以支付首付款。更重要的是，用50万购房意味着要背负长达数十年的房贷，不仅耗尽了现有资金，还要每月承担巨大的还款压力。相比之下，将50万存入 银行，虽然利率不高，但至少没有还贷压力，每年还能获得一定的利息收入。 面对2025年手握50万的选择题，买房还是存银行？这个话题近日在网上引发了激烈的讨论。有人憧憬着抄底楼市，幻想着房价触底反弹后的暴利，不惜加杠 杆贷款购房。然而，也有人坚 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储博斯蒂克：强劲的经济状况将有效遏制通货紧缩的蔓延程度。 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 美国银行策略师近日表示，当前投资者乐观情绪已处于极高水平，该行"牛熊指标"从9.2上升至9.4，风 险资产卖出信号持续释放。 该行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特团队指出，目前89%的MSCI全球股票指数均高于其50日和200日 移动平均线，市场已进入该行定义的"超买"区域，通常意味着股票市场存在较高下行风险。 针对当前市场形势，哈特内特重申2026年重点投资策略：该行将继续看好长期债券投资，以此应对通货 紧缩和潜在的去杠杆化风险；同时对国际资产持结构性看涨态度，其中中国资产是重点关注方向之一。 作者：观察君 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable price level for economic stability and social harmony, highlighting the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to promote a gradual recovery of prices to a reasonable range [2][9]. Group 1: Understanding Price Dynamics - The public often perceives low prices as beneficial, equating them with increased purchasing power and reduced production costs, but this view overlooks the negative impacts of prolonged low prices on consumption and economic expectations [3][4]. - A cycle of low prices leading to weak consumer expectations and reduced spending can create a detrimental feedback loop, affecting corporate profits and household incomes [4][5]. - Low prices can also suppress long-term investment intentions, as declining sales prices may narrow profit margins and increase debt pressures on companies [4][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Low Prices - The current low price environment is influenced by both cyclical factors, such as post-pandemic income stagnation and global commodity price fluctuations, and structural factors, including demographic changes and shifts in supply and demand dynamics [6][16]. - The real estate market's adjustment and the maturation of emerging industries have contributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, further suppressing price increases [6][16]. - Institutional factors, such as inadequate market mechanisms for resource allocation and rigid pricing in essential services, hinder the ability of prices to reflect true supply and demand [6][16]. Group 3: International Context - There is a notable price disparity between China and other economies, with many developed countries experiencing high inflation while China maintains low price levels [7][17]. - The contrasting macroeconomic policies adopted by China and Western economies, particularly in response to the pandemic, have led to different inflationary outcomes, with China opting for a more restrained monetary policy [7][17]. Group 4: Recent Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, has shown a year-on-year increase of over 1%, suggesting that the current low price situation may be temporary [8][18]. - The broad money supply has also maintained a growth rate of over 8%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports price recovery [8][18]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - A systematic approach is necessary to promote a reasonable price recovery, relying on market-oriented strategies rather than direct administrative interventions [9][19]. - Policies should focus on stabilizing employment and income, enhancing market competition, and reforming pricing mechanisms to facilitate a gradual return to reasonable price levels [9][20]. - The government should implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including targeted spending and liquidity measures, to support economic stability and price recovery [10][20].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong outlook for the fourth quarter, indicating a healthy customer base that continues to spend [4] - Aggregate inflation for the first three quarters of 2025 was in the 3% range, which is favorable for food distributors [8] - The company aims to achieve a 6.5%-7% Adjusted EBITDA margin by fiscal 2028, with various initiatives planned to reach this goal [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has diversified its offerings significantly over the past decade, moving from high-end products to include upscale casual and various food service sectors [4] - The protein division is currently strong, and the company anticipates that its presence in fresh produce will triple or quadruple as other categories grow [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The food away from home market is valued at $400 billion, and the company is targeting a 10% market share, which would equate to approximately $50 billion [16] - The company has seen significant growth in regions like Texas and Florida, with Texas being described as a startup opportunity for the company [32][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on being a primary supplier to independent restaurants and cafes, while also expanding into other categories and territories [21][22] - The management emphasizes the importance of being a solution provider and consultant to customers, particularly in addressing labor challenges [24] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about consumer spending, noting that celebratory spending is still strong despite economic uncertainties [6] - The company is not expecting any material changes in inflation or tariffs that would significantly impact operations [8][10] Other Important Information - The company has paused its M&A activities to focus on integrating recent acquisitions and improving operational efficiencies [31] - The management believes that the future of distribution will require a more consultative approach to meet customer needs [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company adapting to potential economic tailwinds? - Management does not model potential tailwinds but acknowledges that increased disposable income for consumers could benefit the business [6] Question: What is the outlook on inflation and pricing? - Management noted that they can manage through inflation effectively due to their diverse SKU offerings and that they prefer a stable inflation range of 1%-3% [11] Question: How does the company view competition in the food distribution market? - Management believes that while competition is strong, their unique approach and long-standing relationships with chefs and restaurants set them apart [14] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding M&A? - Management indicated a pause in M&A to focus on internal growth and integration of existing acquisitions, while remaining opportunistic for future deals [31][32]