SAF 行业&ST 嘉澳更新交流 20260302 摘要 SAF 价格受需求季节性回升、政策推动及油气价格波动三重因素驱动， 近期已上涨约 200 美元，达到约 2,350 美元。需求端主要受益于航空公 司备货，政策端则受欧洲 RED C 法案和 HVO 价格上涨影响。 欧洲 HVO 现货价格约为 2,750 美元，与 SAF 存在约 400 美元的倒挂， SAF 仍有上涨空间。油气价格作为欧洲现货定价基准，其上涨直接传导 至 SAF 价格，类似 2021 年俄乌冲突期间的生物燃料价格拉升效应。 预计 2026 年 SAF 最高价格与 2025 年大致相当，可能在 2,700-2,800 美元附近，但高位持续时间有望较 2025 年更长。短期波动受油气价格 影响，中期趋势由旺季需求和备货节奏主导，需求端回升提供稳定支撑。 UCO 采购已转为招标模式，近期价格回升至约 7,500-7,700 元/吨（约 1,100 美元），受 HVO 需求、RED C 影响及 SAF 开工回升驱动。未来 需关注油脂结构变化及油气价格在地缘政治下的演变。 2 月份集中检修影响一季度出货，但催化剂更新预计提升整体收率约 2 个百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The biofuel company Ecosecurities has announced that its new plant in Malaysia is nearing full operational capacity, marking a significant step in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The Malaysian plant is the first sustainable aviation fuel production facility in the country, located in the Tanjung Langsat area, and is expected to commence production in October 2025 [1] - Current capacity utilization of the plant is at 95%, with a maximum annual production capacity of 420,000 tons, producing SAF, hydrogenated vegetable oils, and bio-naphtha [1] - Ecosecurities is jointly controlled by Hong Kong and China Gas and Bain Capital, with CEO Matti Liivonen indicating that the first batch of SAF will be shipped to core demand markets in Europe by December 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into the Asian market, with countries like Singapore and Japan implementing mandatory SAF usage policies, while Malaysia is exploring the feasibility of a 1% blending requirement [1] - Since 2021, Ecosecurities has operated a biofuel base in Zhangjiagang with an annual capacity of 350,000 tons, supplying major airlines directly without intermediaries [1] - The raw materials for the plant are sourced from China, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian regions, with a combined annual production capacity of 770,000 tons from both facilities [1] Group 3: Future Plans - Ecosecurities is planning a third production base, although specific location details have not yet been disclosed, as the company continues to strengthen its global biofuel footprint and seize opportunities in the green aviation energy sector [1]

Group 1 - The company Hai Xin Neng Ke stated that there are currently no relevant standards or export customs codes for bio-naphtha [2] - The company will continue to monitor and promote the establishment of relevant standards for bio-naphtha [2]

Group 1: Company Overview and Achievements - Beijing Haineng Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is a publicly listed company controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Haidian District, Beijing [6] - Established in 1997 and listed in 2010 with stock code 300072 [7] - One of the first domestic enterprises to research, produce, and sell hydrocarbon-based biodiesel [8] - Focuses on innovation-driven development, forming a business model centered on bioenergy, catalytic purification (environmental materials), and specialty chemicals [9] Group 2: Core Business Areas - Main business areas include bioenergy and environmentally friendly materials [12] - Bioenergy is the primary focus, encompassing technology R&D, product production, raw material procurement, and sales [13] - Hydrocarbon-based biodiesel has high calorific value, low oxygen content, high cetane number, and extremely low levels of aromatics and sulfur, achieving a sulfur content of less than 1 ppm [14][16] - Production capacity includes approximately 300,000 tons of high-congealing biodiesel and 200,000 tons of low-congealing biodiesel [18] Group 3: Industry Trends and Market Potential - Global hydrocarbon-based biodiesel consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 26.9% from 2014 to 2023, with a projected growth rate of 16.38% from 2024 to 2028 [37] - The EU is the largest biodiesel production region, implementing policies to promote healthy industry development [40] - China's biodiesel industry is supported by continuous government encouragement and policy releases, indicating a growing market demand [41] Group 4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Development - SAF is produced from biomass and has similar combustion properties to traditional fossil jet fuel, with a lifecycle CO2 reduction of 50% to 90% compared to conventional jet fuel [33] - By 2025, global SAF consumption is expected to reach 6.4 million tons, increasing to 36 million tons by 2050 [45] - China is expected to reach a SAF demand of approximately 3 million tons by 2030, aligning with international aviation industry targets [48] Group 5: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has issued various policies to support the development of SAF, indicating a positive attitude towards the industry's growth [57] - The EU has implemented mandatory SAF blending policies, with plans to increase the blending ratio significantly by 2050 [51] - The market demand for SAF is expected to rise steadily, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity in the coming quarters [65]

Group 1 - The city of Rizhao has been approved as one of the second batch of pilot cities for the national bio-aviation fuel "white list" export, with Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd. included as one of the three companies with a certified export capacity of 158,000 tons [1] - Bio-aviation fuel is produced from waste oils such as kitchen waste oil, creating a low-carbon economic model from "waste oil" to "aviation fuel" [1] - The national bio-aviation fuel "white list" export pilot program is an innovative measure by multiple government departments to promote bio-aviation fuel exports, allowing eligible companies to apply for export licenses within their certified capacity [1] Group 2 - Rizhao City aims to leverage its new energy industry foundation and port advantages to enhance the international competitiveness of bio-aviation fuel, focusing on supporting Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd. in exporting its products [2] - The local government has actively engaged with various departments to establish a regulatory framework for the bio-aviation fuel export "white list" system, ensuring comprehensive oversight and support for the industry [2] - A collaborative mechanism has been established to facilitate inter-departmental coordination and information sharing, ensuring seamless regulation of the entire bio-aviation fuel export process [2] Group 3 - Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd. has developed a production line capable of processing 500,000 tons of waste animal and plant oils annually, utilizing advanced processing techniques to produce clean biofuels [3] - The company plans to invest in a bio-aviation fuel production line, which is expected to start normal operations by May 2025, with an annual production capacity of 160,000 tons and a reduction of 350,000 tons in carbon emissions per year [3] - The anticipated annual export revenue from bio-aviation fuel is projected to exceed 2 billion yuan, significantly contributing to the outward-oriented economic development of Rizhao City [3]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in EU regulations regarding bio-based naphtha and pyrolysis oil is suppressing demand in the petrochemical industry, hindering investments, and causing price differentiation based on end-use applications [2][6]. Regulatory Impact - The lack of clear and unified regulations from the EU is leading to decreased procurement interest in bio-based naphtha and pyrolysis oil from 2024 to 2025, complicating financing for new projects and infrastructure [2][3]. - The quality balance accounting rules significantly affect the potential profitability of bio-based naphtha and pyrolysis oil, with unclear regulations making investment returns unpredictable [2][4]. Legislative Developments - The EU Commission is required to assess the technological development and environmental performance of bio-based plastic packaging within three years of the PPWR regulation coming into effect, potentially setting usage targets for bio-based materials [3][4]. - The legal positioning of pyrolysis oil remains uncertain due to the Waste Framework Directive, which complicates its classification as a recyclable material [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - There are differing opinions on the recycling content targets, with the EU Council proposing phased targets for new vehicles, while the European Parliament suggests higher initial targets [4]. - The recognition of quality balance accounting is crucial for the chemical recycling sector to be included in recycling content thresholds, impacting the entire industry's profitability and competitiveness [4][5]. Market Outlook - The regulations will be key drivers for the future demand and investment in pyrolysis oil and bio-based naphtha, with earlier clarity from the EU potentially accelerating their scale development [6].