生猪期货LH2505合约

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生猪:回归产业逻辑,累库持续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-20 07:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive since April, with the spot price mainly showing a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits, so attention should be paid to hedging opportunities while being cautious about setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (4.14 - 4.20) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price showed a strong and volatile trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.2 yuan/kg (the same as last week), the live pig price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg (up from 14.82 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1635 yuan/head (the same as last week). On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and the slaughter of individual farmers decreased. On the demand side, the difference between frozen and fresh meat prices continuously supported demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening increased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 126KG (up from 125.64KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong upward trend. The highest price of the LH2505 contract this week was 13890 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13875 yuan/ton (compared to 13380 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2505 contract was 1195 yuan/ton (down from 1440 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (4.21 - 4.27) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. Since March, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has had a significant impact on prices. Secondary fattening has continuously purchased and held pigs, and the pig weight has continued to increase. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market expectation is weak, which stimulates secondary fatteners to sell before the festival. There may be a wave of selling, which will further narrow the price difference between fat and lean pigs, and the spot performance will continue to exceed expectations. In terms of supply, the vacancy rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening pens are relatively high. High - weight pigs will be sold according to the market, while small - weight pigs will continue to be held. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. According to the sow plan, the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, and the increase in the third quarter will be more obvious. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared to the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for converting frozen meat to fresh meat has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. It is expected that there will also be a small seasonal increase in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product sector is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. Import tariffs have limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range is also limited. Pigs weighing around 300 catties have seen an increased volume of selling before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and there is still a willingness to enter the market after the festival. In general, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 13875 yuan/ton on April 18th. As tariff and macro - sentiment cool down, the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. Since April, the sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive, and the spot price has mainly shown a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. Many groups have announced a significant decrease in the breeding cost in March, mainly due to cost reduction driven by management and efficiency improvement. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits. The short - term support level of the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: This week, the basis was 1195 yuan/ton, and the calendar spread between LH2505 and LH2507 was 215 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 126KG (compared to 124.64KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%, and the pork import volume was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% [12].