Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities quantifies the impact of AI Token deployment on China's power industry, indicating that the transition to the reasoning era in AI could lead to a 10% elasticity in electricity demand, boosting green certificates and capacity prices [1][2]. Group 1: AI Industry Transition - The AI industry has shifted from a training era to a reasoning era, with a narrowing gap in computing power between domestic and overseas players. The Agent model is expected to drive exponential growth in Token consumption [1][2][9]. - If the global daily Token call volume reaches trillions, combined with a 30%-50% market share of domestic large models and 70%-90% local computing power deployment, Token deployment could increase China's electricity and power demand by 8% and 18%, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Electricity Cost Dynamics - The importance of electricity costs in AI computing competition is increasing, with the share of electricity in unit Token costs rising significantly. In high-performance training versions of AIDC, electricity accounts for only 5%, but this doubles to 10% under reasoning models, and can reach 20%-30% with self-developed reasoning-grade chips [1][7][9]. - The report highlights that while the current electricity cost is only 10% of Token costs, this share is expected to continue rising as chip efficiency improves [9][18]. Group 3: Price Elasticity and Market Dynamics - The demand for Tokens is expected to enhance China's green electricity demand by 4%-33% from 2026 to 2030, benefiting undervalued green certificate prices. The low utilization rate of reasoning models is likely to increase capacity prices by 50-300 yuan per kilowatt during the same period, while the impact on electricity prices will be relatively delayed [2][8]. - The report contrasts with market views by emphasizing that the AI race has entered the reasoning era, and the elasticity of Token demand on green certificates and capacity prices is significantly higher than on electricity prices [2][9]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks in the green and thermal power sectors, particularly those benefiting from renewable energy demand, such as Longyuan H, Green Development, and China Power [10]. - Companies like Jinko Power, Jingneng Clean Energy, and others are highlighted for their potential to benefit from capacity price elasticity [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the power supply in China will not become a bottleneck for computing power expansion, given the country's ample electricity supply. The industrial electricity price gap between China and the U.S. is expected to further highlight China's advantages in power supply [1][7][21]. - The transition to the reasoning era is anticipated to attract more infrastructure investments, as the sensitivity of electricity costs in AIDC is expected to double, making it a more critical factor in the competitive landscape [20][21].

核心观点 完善发电侧容量电价机制，火电或迎容量电价超额上涨 本周五，发改委、能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，分类完善煤电、气电、抽蓄容量电价 机制，并首次在国家层面明确电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制，关键要素如下：（1）对于火电，因部分地区煤电利 用小时数快速下降，因此将补偿固定成本比例提升至不低于 50%，可根据实际情况进一步提升，对于煤电市场化交易 电价下限不再统一执行 20%，而由各地合理确定下限，同时放宽长协签约比例要求，鼓励电价与成本变化相结合；（2） 对于抽蓄，现行电价机制对企业成本约束不足，因此对 633 号文出台后开工的电站，实行弥补平均成本的一省一价的 统一容量电价，电站可自主参与市场交易；（3）对于电网侧独立新型储能，以煤电容量电价为基础，根据满功率连续 放电时长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长确定折算比例，预计各省差异较大，如目前甘肃省将持续时长设置为 6 小时； （4）有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，在现货市场连续运行后，对本省机组可靠容量按统一原则补偿；（5）对于 可靠容量充裕或用户经济承受能力较弱地区，严控新增调节性电源项目。 火电盈利模型变革得到进一步明确，关注火 ...