上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 08 月 08 日 华能国际电力股份 (00902) ——容量电价提升盈利稳定性，成本下降助力估值修复 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.51 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8981.73 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.56/3.86 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 864.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 4,700.38 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.1002 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -16% 34% 84% HSCEI 华能国际电力股份 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 公 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预 ...

Core Insights - The energy storage market in Bulgaria is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in installed capacity from 55MWh in 2024 to 8-10GWh by 2025, representing a growth of 5233% [12][16] - Two companies,采日能源 and 阳光电源, have recently secured substantial energy storage contracts in Bulgaria, totaling over 1.4GWh [2][4][6] Group 1: Company Developments - 采日能源 has won a 430+MWh energy storage project in Bulgaria, providing a comprehensive solution that ensures high performance under varying conditions and aims to shorten the investment recovery period [4][5] - 阳光电源 has signed a contract for over 1GWh of battery energy storage systems with Sunterra, marking a significant step in expanding its storage capacity in Bulgaria [6][7] - 阳光电源 has announced a total of 40.789GWh in energy storage orders since 2025, indicating strong market demand [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Bulgarian energy storage market is being driven by EU green transition policies and subsidies, attracting investments from various companies, including Chinese firms [12][16] - The average investment return period for energy storage projects in Bulgaria is currently around 6-8 years, with expectations that it will improve to 9-11% IRR following the implementation of a capacity pricing mechanism in 2025 [16] - The Bulgarian government is supporting renewable energy and storage projects through various funding initiatives, including a 1.15 billion leva financial support for over 9.71289GWh of storage projects [16]

Core Viewpoint - Gansu Province has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, marking the first provincial-level independent capacity pricing policy in China, aimed at supporting the transformation of coal power and promoting the orderly development of new energy storage [2][3]. Group 1: Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The capacity price for coal power units and new energy storage on the grid side is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year, with a two-year implementation period [2]. - The mechanism includes full capacity compensation for coal power, increasing the fixed cost recovery ratio from 30% to 100%, and incorporates various energy sources like hydropower, wind, and solar into the compensation framework [3][4]. - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to stabilize investment returns and promote the development of energy storage, especially in the context of high penetration of renewable energy [3][4]. Group 2: Flexibility and Resource Demand - Gansu's energy resources are abundant, but the high proportion of renewable energy requires flexible adjustment resources to ensure reliable power supply during peak demand [3]. - The new pricing mechanism aims to decouple capacity pricing from energy pricing, providing a clearer boundary between energy, auxiliary services, and capacity pricing [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Users and Market Dynamics - The capacity pricing mechanism is designed to have a minimal impact on downstream electricity costs for industrial and commercial users, as the overall electricity price is expected to decrease due to the introduction of this mechanism [6][7]. - The capacity fee will be allocated based on the monthly electricity consumption of all industrial and commercial users, with the State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company responsible for monthly calculations [5][6]. Group 4: Future Market Developments - The capacity pricing mechanism is seen as a transitional measure, with plans to establish a capacity market in the long term, allowing for better resource allocation and price discovery [8][9]. - The mechanism will encourage the participation of diverse resources in the capacity market, with a focus on effective capacity assessment and fair compensation [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in coal prices has significantly improved profitability, and an adjustment in capacity electricity prices is imminent [7] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 112.03 billion in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.26 billion, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to leverage falling coal costs to enhance profit margins in thermal power generation [7] - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy capacity, with significant increases in wind and solar installations [7] - The adjustment in capacity electricity pricing is expected to stabilize profitability and enhance the value of thermal power generation [7] - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating a favorable valuation [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 241.48 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 13.05 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [6] - Earnings per share are expected to rise to RMB 0.83 in 2025, with a gross margin of 17.2% [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 8.8% in 2025 [6] - The report indicates a significant improvement in profit margins due to lower coal prices, with thermal power profit per kilowatt-hour increasing by 98% year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in hydropower generation, with significant year-on-year growth in photovoltaic and nuclear power generation [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly established capacity pricing mechanism in Gansu Province, which raises the capacity price to 330 RMB/kW per year, enhancing the stability of coal power units [21][23] - The report recommends specific companies such as Sheneng Co., Guodian Power, and China Nuclear Power, while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funiu Co. [7] Industry Overview - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 0.49% and the public utility index down 1.37%, which is larger than the overall market decline [7] - The report notes that the total market capitalization of the industry is 383.21 billion RMB, with 240 listed companies [3] Key Events Analysis - In June, the total power generation reached 796.29 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with hydropower generation showing a reduced decline [11] - The report mentions significant events such as the issuance of guidelines for distributed photovoltaic power development by Jiangxi Province [2][69] Market Performance - The report indicates that the environmental sector has a cumulative increase of 11.17% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [7] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with the electricity sector showing a cumulative increase of 0.74% [28] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price is 636 RMB/ton, a 0.79% increase from the previous week [39] - It also highlights the water levels in major reservoirs, with the Three Gorges Reservoir at 158.37 meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [41] Electricity Market - The report states that the weighted average electricity price in Guangdong Province reached a peak of 484.16 RMB/MWh, a 71.0% increase from the previous week [58] - It notes that the transaction volume in the Shandong Province's medium and long-term electricity market increased by 49.9% [58]

Group 1: Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Sector - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is recommended for increased allocation, focusing on traditional pharmaceutical companies undergoing transformation and innovation [4] - Key companies to watch include 3SBio, United Laboratories, Kangzheng Pharmaceutical, China Biologic Products, and CSPC Pharmaceutical [4] - The innovation drug sector is highlighted as essential for the upgrade of China's pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on companies like BeiGene [4] Group 2: Disposable Glove Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in Q3, with attention on domestic leading companies releasing overseas capacity [9] - The long-term development trend of the industry remains unchanged, with domestic companies poised to capture global market share due to cost control and R&D advantages [9] - Key players to monitor include YTY Group and Zhonghong Medical [9] Group 3: Magnesium Oxide Market - The performance of Puyang Refractories is under pressure due to demand fluctuations in the magnesium oxide market [14] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards by 11% to 305 million yuan, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain stable [14] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating based on expected growth in the magnesium oxide business [14] Group 4: Economic Data Analysis - The overall demand remains stable, but fixed asset investment growth has significantly declined due to high temperatures and external uncertainties [20] - Economic data for Q2 indicates a stable demand side and a slowdown in investment growth, improving the supply-demand relationship [20] Group 5: Retail Sales Performance - In June 2025, retail sales totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, falling short of market expectations [25] - The decline in growth rate is attributed to a high base from the previous year and the pre-emptive release of consumer demand due to extended promotional periods [25] - Categories such as gold and jewelry have seen a decrease in growth due to high price fluctuations [25] Group 6: Convertible Bond Ratings - In the first half of 2025, the ratings of convertible bonds were predominantly downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year [28] - The majority of downgraded bonds were issued by private enterprises, particularly in the basic chemical and computer sectors [28] - Companies facing downgrades generally exhibited declining profitability and increased liquidity risks [28] Group 7: COFs Material Industry - COFs (Covalent Organic Frameworks) are emerging as high-performance materials with significant application potential in energy storage and environmental remediation [32] - The collaboration between domestic leaders and academic institutions is expected to accelerate the commercialization of COFs [32] - Companies like Polylite are highlighted for their role in advancing COFs material production [32] Group 8: Financial Data Insights - June 2025 financial data showed strong performance, influenced by seasonal factors and reduced pressure on corporate credit demand [38] - Future credit growth will depend on corporate expansion willingness and the pace of fiscal policy implementation [38] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "stable" tone, with liquidity remaining ample [38] Group 9: Power Pricing Mechanism - Gansu Province's proposed capacity pricing mechanism for power generation is expected to benefit the thermal power sector [41] - Companies such as Gansu Energy and Guotou Power are recommended for investment due to their potential gains from this policy [41] - The proposal is also favorable for the domestic energy storage industry, particularly for companies involved in the entire lifecycle of energy storage operations [41]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The introduction of a provincial capacity pricing mechanism in Gansu is expected to enhance the profitability stability of coal power plants, aligning with the public utility attributes [4]. - The capacity pricing mechanism will allow for a higher capacity fee for coal power plants, which is anticipated to increase from the previous standard of 100 yuan/kW·year to a more favorable rate, thus improving long-term profitability stability [4]. - The report highlights that the new pricing mechanism could serve as a model for other provinces, potentially accelerating the implementation of similar capacity pricing structures nationwide [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage systems in stabilizing the grid and enhancing the consumption rate of renewable energy, as they will now receive guaranteed revenue from capacity fees [4]. - Coal power is positioned as a stabilizing force in the energy structure, allowing for a more significant share of renewable energy generation while optimizing the overall energy mix in China [4]. Summary by Sections Capacity Pricing Mechanism - Gansu province has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for compliant coal power plants and grid-side new energy storage, with fees determined by a formula involving declared capacity and capacity price [4]. - The national standard for coal power fixed costs is set at 330 yuan/kW·year, with a recovery ratio expected to be higher in Gansu compared to the national average [4]. Renewable Energy and Storage - The report notes that the rapid increase in renewable energy installations necessitates energy storage systems to manage intermittency and enhance grid stability [4]. - The new capacity fee for energy storage is expected to improve investment stability and reduce the curtailment rate of renewable energy [4]. Investment Recommendations - For green energy, the report suggests focusing on companies like Xintian Green Energy and Funiu Co., which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of renewable energy generation [4]. - For coal power, companies such as Huadian International and Jiantou Energy are recommended due to favorable policies enhancing profitability [4]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the utility sector, indicating buy or hold ratings for various firms based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **electric power industry** and its transition towards **high-quality development** influenced by policy document **No. 136** [1][2] - The role of **thermal power** is shifting from being the main power source to a **backup and peak regulation** role, with coal prices significantly impacting profitability [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Coal Price Impact**: The price of coal has dropped significantly, with the northern port 5,500 kcal thermal coal index reaching a low of **620 RMB/ton**. This decline has positively affected the profitability of thermal power plants [1][6] - **Performance of Power Companies**: Major thermal power companies like **Jingneng** and **Huadian** reported strong performance in Q1, with continued growth expected in Q2 despite a slight decrease in thermal power generation [1][4] - **Hydropower Performance**: Hydropower companies have also performed well due to favorable water conditions and stable electricity prices, with notable performance from the **Yalong River** in Q2 [1][4] - **Green Power Transition**: The green power sector is moving towards quality over quantity, with expectations for new installations to slow down. The focus is on improving yield rates and addressing subsidy and pricing pressures [3][5][12][13] Additional Important Content - **Capacity Pricing Mechanism**: The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance revenue stability for thermal power companies, with projections indicating that the recovery of fixed costs will increase from **30%-50%** in 2024-2025 to **50%-70%** by 2026 [9][10] - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on large thermal power companies with high market procurement ratios and strong resilience, such as **Jingneng** and **Huadian**. Additionally, smaller projects with stable returns, like waste-to-energy projects, are also recommended [8][24][26] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the thermal power sector is positive due to the multi-revenue system that enhances stability and reduces dependence on coal prices. Companies are expected to increase dividend rates as profitability stabilizes [11][24] Regional Contractual Insights - The signing of long-term contracts varies by region, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and coal price levels. For instance, Shanghai has a tight supply situation, while Jiangsu has seen an increase in new energy installations [7] Renewable Energy Challenges - The renewable energy sector faces challenges such as subsidy issues and consumption pressure, particularly in western regions where wind and solar energy utilization rates are low. The government is implementing measures to improve consumption scenarios [15][14] Conclusion - The electric power industry is undergoing significant changes driven by policy shifts and market dynamics. The focus on quality development, coupled with favorable coal prices, presents both opportunities and challenges for investors in the sector.