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恒信证券|现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至1%,避险资产承压背后逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 12:01
9月30日国际市场消息,现货黄金价格日内跌幅进一步扩大至 1%,短线走弱趋势明显。作为传统避险资产,黄金价格走势往往与美元、利率预期以及地缘 风险密切相关。本次回调既反映出市场对美联储政策预期的再度调整,也体现了投资者风险偏好的阶段性回升。本文将从行情回顾、驱动因素、市场解读与 未来展望四个方面,分析黄金短期承压的背后逻辑。 根据交易行情显示,9月30日欧洲交易时段,现货黄金价格由盘初小幅下跌逐步扩大跌幅,日内跌幅达到 1%。在过去一周,黄金价格震荡加剧,多次冲高 回落,反映出市场情绪的反复。 1. 美元与利率预期走强 近期美国经济数据表现相对稳健,就业与通胀指标未出现明显回落,使得市场对美联储年内降息幅度的预期有所降温。美元指数走强,10年期美债收益率升 至相对高位,均对黄金价格形成压制。 2. 风险偏好回升 部分风险资产(如美股与部分新兴市场股指)表现稳健,投资者情绪有所恢复。风险偏好上升,削弱了对黄金的配置需求。 3. 技术面因素 黄金此前在关键阻力位附近遇阻,多空资金博弈激烈。日内跌幅扩大至1%,也可能与部分技术性抛盘、止损单触发有关,加剧了短期波动。 4. 地缘与宏观变量的暂时缓和 近期市场对部分地 ...
股指期货:震荡格局,间歇性上冲
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a rebound high of 3888.6 points on Tuesday but then pulled back. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the textile, coal, and banking sectors led the losses. The core driver of the market's upward movement was the continuous inflow of funds under the influence of positive risk appetite. However, regulatory cooling rumors during the week led to some risk - aversion among investors [2]. - The driving factors of the market still lie in internal and external variables. Domestically, it is necessary to focus on the policy's attitude towards preventing stock market risks at the current position. Overseas, pay attention to the adjustment of the US stock technology and chip sectors and its impact on the domestic market, as well as the impact of the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectations on the domestic market. If the internal and external situations are stable, the market is expected to show a slightly stronger pattern in the shock and may try to break through the 4000 - point mark. If internal and external fluctuations increase, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways at the current position [3]. - Key factors to watch include the domestic economic and policy trends and the Fed's policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains at 35% [9]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. Among them, the information and materials industries in the CSI 300 index had relatively large increases, while the energy and financial industries declined [11]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock - index futures contracts, and the IM contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures both rebounded [13][17][18]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 22, the TTM P/E ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.42 times, 13.97 times, 11.89 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [24][25]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - The chart shows the new - established equity - biased fund shares, the margin trading balance in the two markets, the capital interest - rate price, and the central bank's net investment situation [28]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IIH, IH, IC, and IM can refer to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend strategy: After adjustment, go long. It is expected that the core operating ranges of the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 contracts are 4371 - 4596 points, 2906 - 3040 points, 6787 - 7242 points, and 7109 - 7588 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5].
贺博生:8.26黄金原油震荡高位回落最新行情走势分析及今日操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 00:03
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3353 per ounce, with a focus on upcoming U.S. PCE data to gauge Federal Reserve policy direction [2] - Gold prices have shown stability, with a recent peak of $3372.67 per ounce, influenced by a dovish stance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with key resistance at $3385 and support at $3345 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Current trading price for WTI crude oil is approximately $64.66 per barrel, following a nearly 3% increase last week [6] - Market concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and India, particularly regarding oil imports from Russia [6] - Technical indicators suggest a potential upward trend in oil prices, with short-term resistance at $66.0-$67.0 and support at $63.0-$62.0 [7]
黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.8.20)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 00:26
Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - The U.S. housing market data showed mixed results, with July single-family home starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, driven by apartment project growth, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating low builder confidence [2] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the two-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 3.754%, the ten-year down by 3.7 basis points to 4.302%, and the thirty-year down by 4 basis points to 4.902%, reflecting rising inflation expectations which are unfavorable for gold [2] - The stock market saw the Nasdaq index drop by 1.46%, influenced by concerns over tech stocks like Nvidia, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.59% and the Dow Jones remained flat, indicating cautious consumer sentiment and uncertainty regarding tariffs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which would typically lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Market uncertainty surrounds Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, with concerns that he may downplay the prospect of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] - The release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated, which may provide insights into the economic outlook and influence gold prices depending on whether a hawkish or dovish stance is reinforced [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump expressed hope for an end to the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that U.S. support could help ensure Ukraine's security, which could improve global risk sentiment and reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - However, uncertainty remains as Trump acknowledged that Putin may be unwilling to reach an agreement, which could sustain support for gold [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices have entered a short-term corrective phase after a significant drop, with a strong bearish trend continuing as evidenced by four consecutive bearish candles [6] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3328/3329 and 3345/3346, while support is noted at 3309 and 3268, indicating a bearish outlook for short-term trading strategies [6][8] - The four-hour chart confirms a continuation of the bearish trend, with a focus on selling at higher levels, particularly below the previous high of 3345/3346 [8][9]
澳就业稳健+美鸽派预期 澳元获双重利好支撑
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-18 05:48
Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD) due to strong employment data and a weakening USD, with the AUD/USD trading around 0.6515 [1] Economic Data - Australia's employment data showed a significant increase in full-time employment by 60,500 in July, with overall employment growth at 24,500, aligning closely with market expectations of 25,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, which alleviated market concerns regarding the Australian labor market [1] Currency Movement - The AUD/USD has risen by 0.17% from the previous close of 0.6504, indicating positive momentum for the Australian dollar [1] - The USD index has fallen below the critical support level of 98.19, suggesting significant downward pressure on the USD [1] Market Outlook - The AUD/USD is expected to challenge the resistance level of 0.6625, which is the high from 2025, driven by favorable local economic data and a weaker USD [1] - The AUD/USD may continue to fluctuate within the range of 0.6450 to 0.6550, with a potential breakdown below 0.6450 leading to further declines towards 0.6400 and 0.6372 [1] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD can stabilize above the resistance level of 0.6550, it may target the previous highs in the range of 0.6600 to 0.6650 [1]
钟亿金:8.17国际黄金,白银,融通金,积存金下周一开盘走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 13:50
Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market experienced a decline of approximately 1.5% last week, stabilizing around $3,336 after a significant drop influenced by stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data [3] - The market is closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which is expected to be a key factor for gold prices in the upcoming week [3] - The potential for a hawkish signal from Powell could strengthen the dollar further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Russia, contribute to market uncertainty, with the potential for escalated conflicts affecting gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset [4] - Positive developments in geopolitical situations could reduce the appeal of gold, while negative developments would likely increase demand for gold as a safe haven [4] Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Upcoming economic data releases, such as retail sales figures, will significantly influence gold prices; strong data may suppress interest in rate cuts, negatively impacting gold [5] - Conversely, weaker-than-expected economic data could bolster expectations for rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Technically, gold has been in a four-month adjustment phase, trading around the critical $3,300 level, which is seen as a pivotal support zone [7] - If gold breaks below $3,300, further support levels are identified at $3,245 and between $3,150 - $3,120 [7] - Short-term indicators suggest a bearish trend, but the lack of increasing volume during the price decline indicates limited bearish strength [7]
DLSM外汇平台:美联储主席人选公布在即,金价能否维持强势震荡?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 09:52
周三现货黄金小幅回落,结束此前三连涨的走势,市场情绪开始出现微妙转变。金价当前交投于3370美 元/盎司附近,虽然幅度不大,但市场已显露出在高位面前的谨慎情绪。此次回调的直接导火索,是投 资者在连续上涨后选择获利了结,而更深层次的关注点,集中在即将由美国总统特朗普公布的美联储主 席提名人选上。面对不确定的政策前景,黄金市场正处于敏感拐点,短期走势既充满变量,也暴露出交 易逻辑背后的脆弱性。 其他贵金属方面,白银微涨至每盎司37.88美元,铂金则表现相对稳健,上涨0.9%,至1332.26美元;而 钯金大幅下跌2.7%,触及一个月新低,这一分化走势也表明,市场情绪仍在快速变化中,资金流动的 逻辑极为敏感。总体来看,贵金属市场短期内仍将紧盯美联储政策预期变化,而政治事件——特别是特 朗普的货币政策布局——将在未来几日成为决定方向的核心变量。 当前的黄金市场并非单纯由经济数据主导,而是高度依赖政策预期与投资者情绪之间的博弈。面对即将 揭晓的美联储主席人选,市场正在屏息以待。而在变数揭晓之前,黄金价格的每一个波动,都是市场神 经高度紧绷的体现。 然而,高位附近的震荡也反映出部分投资者的分歧正在加剧。一方面,金价上涨的 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250728
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]
2025年7月14日,国内黄金9995价格多少钱一克?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by tariff policies, central bank gold purchases, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, creating a complex market environment for gold [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1 has increased global economic uncertainty, which is favorable for gold and silver [2]. - The slow and unstable progress of tariff negotiations has led to concerns within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation stability, impacting interest rate cut expectations and subsequently gold prices [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to support gold prices through sustained purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding 70,000 ounces in June [2]. - A report from the World Gold Council indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reinforcing gold's long-term appeal as a hedge against dollar risk [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market expectations for two interest rate cuts this year have been factored into gold prices, but tariff issues have created inflation concerns within the Federal Reserve, making them hesitant to cut rates [2]. - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve would lower the cost of holding gold, which would be bullish for gold prices, while a decision against cutting rates could exert downward pressure [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Outlook - Recent gold price movements have been volatile due to the interplay of tariff policies, central bank purchases, and Federal Reserve expectations [3]. - Short-term price levels are expected to oscillate, with resistance at $3,400 - $3,500 per ounce and support at $3,300 - $3,350 per ounce [3]. - Long-term, gold's status as a hard currency is likely to be reinforced amid ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, suggesting potential for price increases [3].
加沙停火谈判再陷僵局,特朗普与内塔尼亚胡会晤能否破局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 10:01
Group 1 - The first round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, ended without agreement due to Israel's lack of sufficient authorization to discuss key issues such as ceasefire duration and prisoner release [2][3] - Israel's negotiating team was only authorized to discuss humanitarian aid distribution, which limited the scope of the talks [3] - The proposed ceasefire plan by Qatar required Hamas to release 10 Israeli captives and return 18 bodies within 60 days, while Israel insisted on retaining the right to resume military actions [3][5] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump is focused on the Gaza ceasefire, Iran issues, and normalization of relations with Arab countries, with market attention on potential concessions from Trump regarding tariffs and military aid [2][6] - The meeting is the third between Trump and Netanyahu in six months, with three main focal points: specific terms of the Gaza ceasefire, Iran nuclear issues, and tariff policies [6] - Israel has reportedly rejected Hamas's demand for a "permanent ceasefire," preferring a phased temporary ceasefire instead [6] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to be a key market catalyst, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a significant chance of a rate cut in September [7] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit risk are highlighted by the rising federal debt-to-GDP ratio and the declining share of the dollar in global reserves [9] - Geopolitical developments, including the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the outcomes of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, are likely to influence gold price fluctuations in the short term [9]