周五（8月18日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:14分，澳元/美元 报价0.6515，上涨0.17%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6504。澳大利亚最新就业数据表现强劲，7月全 职就业人口大增6.05万人，整体就业增长2.45万人，与市场预期的2.5万基本持平，失业率稳定在4.2%的 预期水平。 澳元兑美元汇价可能继续在0.6450-0.6550区间内震荡。关键的突破信号需要关注量价配合情况，有效跌 破0.6450支撑位可能开启进一步下探空间，目标指向0.6400和0.6372水平。相反，如果汇价能够重新站 稳0.6550阻力位上方，则可能挑战0.6600-0.6650区域的前期高点。 这一数据缓解了市场对澳洲劳动力市场的担忧，为澳元提供支撑。与此同时，美联储官员古尔斯比表态 对9月降息持开放态度，加剧美元跌势。技术面显示，美元指数已跌破55日均线98.19关键支撑，下行压 力显著。在美元疲软和本土经济数据向好的双重推动下，澳元/美元蓄势上攻，有望挑战2025年高点 0.6625阻力位。市场关注后续美国经济数据对美联储政策预期的影响，这将决定澳元的进一步走势。 ...

千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造 精典，成功绝非偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【关注"钟亿金"可享受独家操作计划】 （三）经济数据影响不容忽视 除了美联储主席讲话，美国等主要经济体即将公布的经济数据也将对黄金走势产生影响。例如零售销售 数据，若数据表现强劲，说明美国国内消费市场旺盛，经济复苏态势良好，将进一步打压降息预期，不 利于黄金价格。反之，若数据不及预期，显示经济增长乏力，将增加市场对降息的期盼，为黄金价格提 供支撑。 一、黄金市场回顾 本周上周五黄金市场呈现出先抑后稳的态势。周初，受美国7月PPI数据远超预期影响，市场对美联储9 月降息的预期大幅降温，美元指数走强，黄金价格承压跳水。周四，黄金一度创下近两周低点。尽管上 周五有所反弹，但整体依旧周跌1.5%左右，基本持平于3336美元。 二、影响本周黄金走势的基本面因素 （一）美联储政策预期是关键 本周，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，这无疑是下周黄金市场的最大焦 点。目前市场对于美联储9月是否降息以及降息幅度存在较大分歧。若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派信号，强调通 胀压力仍需关注，暗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by tariff policies, central bank gold purchases, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, creating a complex market environment for gold [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1 has increased global economic uncertainty, which is favorable for gold and silver [2]. - The slow and unstable progress of tariff negotiations has led to concerns within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation stability, impacting interest rate cut expectations and subsequently gold prices [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to support gold prices through sustained purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding 70,000 ounces in June [2]. - A report from the World Gold Council indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, reinforcing gold's long-term appeal as a hedge against dollar risk [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market expectations for two interest rate cuts this year have been factored into gold prices, but tariff issues have created inflation concerns within the Federal Reserve, making them hesitant to cut rates [2]. - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve would lower the cost of holding gold, which would be bullish for gold prices, while a decision against cutting rates could exert downward pressure [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Outlook - Recent gold price movements have been volatile due to the interplay of tariff policies, central bank purchases, and Federal Reserve expectations [3]. - Short-term price levels are expected to oscillate, with resistance at $3,400 - $3,500 per ounce and support at $3,300 - $3,350 per ounce [3]. - Long-term, gold's status as a hard currency is likely to be reinforced amid ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation pressures, suggesting potential for price increases [3].

Group 1 - The first round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, ended without agreement due to Israel's lack of sufficient authorization to discuss key issues such as ceasefire duration and prisoner release [2][3] - Israel's negotiating team was only authorized to discuss humanitarian aid distribution, which limited the scope of the talks [3] - The proposed ceasefire plan by Qatar required Hamas to release 10 Israeli captives and return 18 bodies within 60 days, while Israel insisted on retaining the right to resume military actions [3][5] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump is focused on the Gaza ceasefire, Iran issues, and normalization of relations with Arab countries, with market attention on potential concessions from Trump regarding tariffs and military aid [2][6] - The meeting is the third between Trump and Netanyahu in six months, with three main focal points: specific terms of the Gaza ceasefire, Iran nuclear issues, and tariff policies [6] - Israel has reportedly rejected Hamas's demand for a "permanent ceasefire," preferring a phased temporary ceasefire instead [6] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to be a key market catalyst, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a significant chance of a rate cut in September [7] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit risk are highlighted by the rising federal debt-to-GDP ratio and the declining share of the dollar in global reserves [9] - Geopolitical developments, including the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the outcomes of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, are likely to influence gold price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is entering a data-intensive period, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data being a key focus that will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - In Europe, speeches from European Central Bank officials and economic data releases from the Eurozone will be important indicators for the euro's performance [1] Group 2 - The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar provides emerging market currencies with a rare opportunity for recovery, particularly for those with strong fundamentals [2] - The combination of the dollar's historical weakness, easing geopolitical risks, and a return of market risk appetite is reshaping the global currency landscape [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, developments in geopolitical situations, and the divergence in economic fundamentals across countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and central bank gold purchasing behaviors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor affecting gold prices. Recent poor ADP employment data did not lead to a clear indication of rate cuts from Powell, diminishing the likelihood of a July cut and leaving a 75% probability for September [2]. - Rising U.S. Treasury yields have made government bonds more attractive to investors, reducing the appeal of gold [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Situations - Geopolitical tensions significantly impact the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. A calming situation in the Middle East has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, causing gold prices to drop [2]. - However, the complexity of geopolitical issues suggests that any easing may be temporary, and renewed conflicts could quickly increase demand for gold [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchasing Behavior - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold affects supply, demand, and market confidence. According to the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves [3]. - Recent data indicates zero growth in China's gold reserves for May, and India's plans to increase import duties may lead to market panic among retail investors [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are under pressure due to unclear Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a calming geopolitical landscape with uncertainties, and changing central bank purchasing behaviors [4]. - Long-term prospects for gold remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and complex economic conditions, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, providing some support for prices [4].

Group 1 - Global investors are responding with a calm attitude towards the new tariffs announced by President Trump, with various moderate scenarios already priced in by the market [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 10% to 70%, with the upper limit significantly higher than the previously announced 50% [1][2] - The market's reaction to tariff news has become more composed, as investors believe the deadline has enough "flexibility" and that the worst-case scenarios are no longer a concern [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and effective dates continues, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and a principle agreement with Vietnam [2] - The EU aims to reach an agreement by July 9, but if negotiations fail, it will take countermeasures to protect its economy [2] - Japan is prepared to defend its interests firmly and is anticipating various possible outcomes in the tariff negotiations [2] Group 3 - The recent tax and spending bill signed into law has led to concerns about increasing the US debt by over $3 trillion, impacting bond investors [3] - Tariff-related inflation risks are putting pressure on US Treasury bonds and the dollar, affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The dollar index has experienced its worst performance since 1973, dropping approximately 11% this year, with a 6.6% decline since April 2 [3] Group 4 - Market expectations are adjusting to the possibility of tariffs at 35%, 40%, or higher, while a comprehensive 10% tariff is anticipated [5] - There is cautious optimism regarding the outlook for US stocks, with close monitoring of interest rate changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a critical adjustment phase, influenced by mixed macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, leading to potential short-term volatility and risks of price corrections [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut this year, but the timing and extent remain uncertain. Key upcoming data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, continue to pose uncertainties that may support gold prices despite a reduction in market hedging behavior [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, and India, are still increasing their gold reserves, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, although the pace of purchases has shown signs of slowing [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical charts indicate short-term support levels at $2280 and $2255, with resistance levels at $2340 and $2365. The MACD on the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakened momentum [5]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a drop below $2280 could lead to further testing of the $2250-$2230 range. Additionally, CFTC data shows a reduction in net long positions by hedge funds, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutions [5]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The short-term outlook is bearish with expectations of a corrective phase, likely maintaining a trading range between $2255 and $2340. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy while awaiting a clearer directional breakout [6]. - The medium-term view suggests positioning for potential gains on dips, especially if upcoming non-farm and inflation data disappoint, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. A sustained move above $2300 and a breakout past $2345 could lead to targets of $2385-$2400 [7][8].

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a rare "double kill" scenario in June 2025, with a monthly volatility of 35%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - Investors who timed the market effectively achieved over 15% returns, while those who chased trends faced losses exceeding 20% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions significantly influenced short-term price fluctuations, with gold prices surging nearly $30 to $3398 per ounce on June 23 due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, followed by a drop to $3342.59 on June 24 after a ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated, with a hawkish stance initially suppressing gold prices, but dovish signals later provided support, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 80% [2] Group 2: Market Patterns - The volatility premium indicated that for every 1-level increase in geopolitical risk, gold price daily fluctuations expanded by 40% [4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve communications led to significant price swings, with gold prices experiencing ±1.5% changes within two hours of announcements [5] Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and China's central bank expected to increase holdings by 200 tons in 2024 [7] - The wedding season in China (June to August) is projected to boost gold jewelry consumption by 8% year-on-year, contributing to 45% of global physical demand [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to remain complex in July, with $3350 acting as a critical support level; a breach could lead to a decline towards $3250-$3300, while stability above $3400 may trigger buying pressure [8] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony and the release of the U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices significantly [9]