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中泰国际:预计FY25起再现盈利增长 上调天伦燃气(01600)评级至“增持”
智通财经网· 2025-07-14 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International anticipates Tianlun Gas (01600) will see a return to profit growth starting from FY25, with a projected CAGR of 12.0% for net profit attributable to shareholders from FY24 to FY27, driven by a focus on industrial and commercial users in second and third-tier cities, effective pricing mechanisms, and a professional management team [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Tianlun Gas is expected to increase its natural gas retail revenue from RMB 5.04 billion in FY24 to RMB 6.34 billion in FY27, representing a CAGR of 7.9% [1]. - The comprehensive gas sales price difference for FY24 is projected to be RMB 0.47 per cubic meter, similar to FY23's RMB 0.48 per cubic meter [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 17.2% in FY24 to 16.9% in FY25, before recovering to 17.2% by FY27 [2]. Group 2: Management and Governance - The founder and major shareholder of Tianlun Gas, Zhang Yingcen, resigned as chairman and executive director due to health reasons, with Xian Zhenyuan, who has over 20 years of service, succeeding him [2]. - The remaining executive directors are also professional managers, ensuring continued effective governance [2]. Group 3: Value-Added Services - Tianlun Gas is actively developing value-added services, such as smart kitchen renovations and gas appliance sales, with FY24 revenue from these services reaching RMB 420 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [2]. - The gross margin for value-added services is approximately 49%, significantly higher than the overall company gross margin of 17.2% [2]. Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company is promoting a high dividend policy, with the core profit payout ratio increasing from 30.0% in FY23 to 33.0% in FY24, with a target of 35.0% for FY25 [2].