证券研究报告 公用事业 | 燃气Ⅱ 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 02 日 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——业绩短期承压 分红回购彰显信心 投资要点： 风险提示：上游气价格波动风险、售气量增长不及预期、双综业务增长低于预期、接驳户数低于预期等。 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 29 | | 日 | 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 20.02 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianlun Gas (01600) has shown a strong upward trend in its stock price since April, leading the gas industry sector, with the gas stock index reaching a maximum increase of 17.33% during the same period, indicating a favorable market outlook for the gas sector in the second half of the year [1][2]. Company Performance - Tianlun Gas reported a revenue of 4.242 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [3]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.046 RMB per share, with a core profit payout ratio of 35%, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]. Business Segments - The gas sales business acted as a stabilizing force, with revenue from gas sales increasing by 12.8% to 3.64 billion RMB, driven by a 15.3% increase in total gas sales volume to 1.268 billion cubic meters [6]. - Retail gas sales volume remained stable at 880 million cubic meters, supported by a 3.6% increase in pipeline gas users to 5.933 million [6][7]. - The wholesale gas sales volume surged by 74.7% to 388 million cubic meters, significantly contributing to the revenue growth [6]. Value-Added Services - Value-added services emerged as a new growth driver, with revenue reaching 231 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, accounting for 5.4% of total revenue [8]. - The home decoration service segment grew by 44% to 190 million RMB, indicating successful market penetration [8]. Industry Outlook - The gas industry faces a mixed environment in the first half of 2025, with opportunities arising from government investments of 800 billion RMB in gas and water infrastructure, alongside challenges of supply surplus and demand slowdown [5]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China decreased by 0.9% year-on-year to 2.1197 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 4.7 percentage point decline in growth compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. Future Prospects - The gas industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year, with potential recovery in natural gas consumption driven by economic stimulus and reduced tariff impacts [10][11]. - Tianlun Gas is well-positioned to benefit from the accelerating pricing mechanism, with its unique customer structure and geographical advantages enhancing its resilience [13][14]. - The company has outlined detailed plans for the second half of the year to ensure high-quality growth, aiming to conclude the "14th Five-Year Plan" successfully [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Tianlun Gas (01600) has shown a strong upward trend in its stock price since April, leading the gas industry sector, with a maximum increase of 17.33% in the gas stock index during the same period, indicating a favorable market outlook for the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianlun Gas reported a revenue of 4.242 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [2] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.046 RMB per share, with a core profit payout ratio of 35%, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders [3] Business Segments - The gas sales business acted as a stabilizing force, with revenue from gas sales increasing by 12.8% to 3.64 billion RMB, driven by a 15.3% increase in total gas sales volume to 12.68 million cubic meters [5] - Retail gas sales volume remained stable at 8.8 million cubic meters, supported by a 3.6% increase in pipeline gas users to 5.933 million, including a 5.4% increase in residential users [5][6] - The wholesale gas sales volume surged by 74.7% to 3.88 million cubic meters, significantly contributing to revenue growth [5] Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services reached 231 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, accounting for 5.4% of total revenue, with the decoration service segment growing by 44% to 190 million RMB [7] Industry Outlook - The gas industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year, with potential growth in natural gas consumption driven by economic recovery and reduced tariff impacts [9][10] - The implementation of a pricing mechanism is anticipated to enhance profit margins for gas companies, benefiting Tianlun Gas due to its favorable customer structure and geographic advantages [11][12] Strategic Positioning - Tianlun Gas's customer structure is heavily weighted towards commercial users, which positions the company to benefit from the accelerating pricing mechanism [12] - The company has a strategic advantage in its geographic location, primarily serving inland regions, which are less affected by international trade tensions, thus ensuring stable operations [13] Future Growth Potential - With a focus on solidifying its core gas business and diversifying value-added services, Tianlun Gas is poised for further growth in the second half of the year, supported by its high dividend policy [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][20]. Core Views - The company's core profit is steadily increasing, and the privatization process is progressing smoothly. The retail gas price difference is expected to further recover, and direct sales gas volume continues to grow. The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2026-2027 downwards while maintaining the 2025 forecast [3][20]. - The privatization of Xin'ao Energy and its subsequent listing in Hong Kong is anticipated to enhance EPS and highlight the advantages of integration. The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio from 2026 to 2028 [3][15][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 660.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.08 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year. Core profit reached 27.36 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year [9][10]. - The natural gas business generated revenue of 522.19 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 54.44 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year [10][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 51.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.56%. The EPS is projected at 1.66 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 11.3 times [3][20]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of at least 1.14 yuan per share in 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2026 to 2028, indicating a dividend yield of 6.1% for 2025 [3][16][20]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the core profit growth is primarily driven by the increase in gross profit from the receiving station and methanol business, despite the volatility in methanol profitability [3][9]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base and enhancing its service offerings in the natural gas sector, with a focus on residential and commercial users [11][18]. Market Outlook - The demand for natural gas is expected to grow steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2023 to 2030. The company's integrated layout is anticipated to support stable development in the natural gas industry [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International anticipates Tianlun Gas (01600) will see a return to profit growth starting from FY25, with a projected CAGR of 12.0% for net profit attributable to shareholders from FY24 to FY27, driven by a focus on industrial and commercial users in second and third-tier cities, effective pricing mechanisms, and a professional management team [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Tianlun Gas is expected to increase its natural gas retail revenue from RMB 5.04 billion in FY24 to RMB 6.34 billion in FY27, representing a CAGR of 7.9% [1]. - The comprehensive gas sales price difference for FY24 is projected to be RMB 0.47 per cubic meter, similar to FY23's RMB 0.48 per cubic meter [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 17.2% in FY24 to 16.9% in FY25, before recovering to 17.2% by FY27 [2]. Group 2: Management and Governance - The founder and major shareholder of Tianlun Gas, Zhang Yingcen, resigned as chairman and executive director due to health reasons, with Xian Zhenyuan, who has over 20 years of service, succeeding him [2]. - The remaining executive directors are also professional managers, ensuring continued effective governance [2]. Group 3: Value-Added Services - Tianlun Gas is actively developing value-added services, such as smart kitchen renovations and gas appliance sales, with FY24 revenue from these services reaching RMB 420 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [2]. - The gross margin for value-added services is approximately 49%, significantly higher than the overall company gross margin of 17.2% [2]. Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company is promoting a high dividend policy, with the core profit payout ratio increasing from 30.0% in FY23 to 33.0% in FY24, with a target of 35.0% for FY25 [2].

Core Viewpoint - Honghua Smart Energy (01083) has demonstrated strong performance in revenue and core profit growth, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for future development [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Honghua Smart Energy achieved revenue of HKD 21.314 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while core profit surged by 34.5% to HKD 1.601 billion [2]. - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.16 and a special dividend of HKD 0.03, totaling HKD 0.19 [2]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, the company's stock price rose by over 9% on March 17, ultimately closing with a gain of 7.93%, reflecting a cumulative increase of nearly 15% since the beginning of March [1]. Analyst Ratings - Various domestic and international brokerages, including CICC, Citigroup, and Huatai Securities, have issued positive reports on the company, indicating strong recognition of its value [1][2]. - Target prices from analysts range from HKD 3.45 to HKD 4.99, with ratings such as "Outperform" and "Buy" [2][10]. Business Growth and Strategy - The company is focusing on its gas business, with gas sales volume expected to increase by 5% to 17.201 billion cubic meters in 2024, supported by the implementation of a pricing mechanism [3][4]. - The comprehensive gas price difference improved to HKD 0.56 per cubic meter, with expectations for further growth in 2025 [3]. Renewable Energy Development - Honghua Smart Energy's renewable energy segment reported a significant profit increase of 514% to HKD 479 million in 2024, with solar power generation capacity reaching 2.3 GW [5][6]. - The company is adopting a light-asset model, which is expected to drive further growth in its renewable energy business, contributing to overall profitability [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the company's renewable energy business will continue to be a key driver of growth, with projections for new installations of 0.6 GW and 0.5 GW in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][10]. - The ongoing implementation of the pricing mechanism and the light-asset strategy are expected to enhance the company's performance and cash flow stability in the long term [10][11].