Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported a total revenue of 16.3 billion yuan for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, which exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 12.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 970 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, but fell short of the consensus estimate of 11.0% [1] - Future profit growth is expected to rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1] Revenue Breakdown - The self-operated business generated revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2HFY25, up 13.9% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1% [2] - The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business revenue was 1.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.6%, but below the consensus estimate of 57.7% [2] - The number of SKUs in the self-operated business increased by 33.6% year-on-year to 1.23 million [2] Business Development and Strategy - The integration of advertising business has enhanced the service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2] - Management indicated that the growth effect from Taobao's flash purchase exceeded expectations, suggesting a dual adaptation strategy for both remote and near-field models in the pharmaceutical health sector [2] Innovation and Future Guidance - The company reported stable growth in GMV for self-operated and platform businesses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] - Innovative businesses like "Code on Trust" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" have shown development, with "Code on Trust" covering a vast network of users and generating initial revenue [3] - The revenue growth target for FY26 is set at 5-10%, with adjusted net profit growth expected at 10-20% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been revised down by 8.8% and 8.4% to 2.3 billion yuan and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 2.9 billion yuan [3] - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x, reflecting a premium over the comparable company's average of 16.2x for 2026, considering the ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [3] - The target price is set at 5.43 HKD, up from a previous value of 4.4 HKD [3]

证券研究报告 阿里健康 (241 HK) 港股通 自营业务转向高质量发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 阿里健康 2HFY25 总收入 163 亿元，同比+16.0%，增速好于 Visible Alpha (VA，口径下同)一致预期的+12.6%，经调整净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，逊于一致预期的 11.0 亿元。在广告业务注入带来的基数效应逐渐 消失后，我们预计阿里健康未来的盈利增速将主要依赖内生业务增速驱动。 后续建议关注：1）医药电商各品类需求修复情况及竞争格局演变；2）淘宝 即时零售战略进展及医药品类近场电商发展情况；3）阿里健康医疗 AI 技术 进展及商业化节奏。"买入"。 广告业务并入贡献坚实增量，淘宝闪购业务发展或带来近场电商领域机会 盈利预测与估值 我们调整 FY26-27 经调整归母净利润预测-8.8/-8.4%至 23/26 亿元，并引入 FY28 预测新值 29 亿元。我们给予公司 35x 目标非 IFRS PE，较可比公司 2026 年均值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].