Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The internet healthcare sector is entering a stable growth phase, with online pharmaceutical retail penetration expected to accelerate. Non-pharmaceutical products like nutritional supplements and home medical devices are well-suited for online retail, while the pharmaceutical market's online penetration is still low but poised for growth due to changing consumer behaviors and regulatory support [6][27][30]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 27,026.56 million in FY2024, increasing to RMB 39,029.33 million by FY2028, reflecting a revenue growth rate of 0.98% in FY2024 and an average of 8.33% from FY2025 to FY2028 [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,438.27 million in FY2024 to RMB 3,355.45 million by FY2028, with a significant growth rate of 91.64% in FY2024 [2]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margin from 21.81% in FY2024 to 25.85% in FY2028, alongside an increase in return on equity (ROE) from 6.07% to 13.00% over the same period [2]. Company Overview - The company operates in three main segments: 1P pharmaceutical self-operated business, 3P pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business, and innovative healthcare and digital services [17]. - The self-operated pharmaceutical business accounted for 85.4% of the company's revenue in FY2025, while the e-commerce platform business contributed 11.7% [17]. Market Trends - The report highlights a favorable regulatory environment for online healthcare, with policies gradually promoting online medical insurance coverage and the legitimacy of internet hospitals [27][28]. - The penetration rates for nutritional supplements and home medical devices are increasing, while the pharmaceutical sector is expected to see rapid growth in online retail penetration due to evolving consumer preferences and regulatory changes [30][31]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the internet healthcare sector is expected to stabilize, with a clear distinction emerging between B2C and O2O models. The report notes that while O2O instant retail will continue to grow, its penetration in certain product categories may remain limited [45][49]. Innovation and Growth Opportunities - The company is actively exploring AI applications in healthcare, enhancing operational efficiency and developing AI-assisted diagnostic tools. This strategic focus on AI is expected to improve service delivery and patient outcomes [52][58]. - The report also mentions the company's cloud hospital and digital service initiatives, which are anticipated to provide significant growth opportunities in the future [52].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Alibaba Health achieved a revenue of 30.6 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, which is a 62% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The medical e-commerce platform business saw a robust growth of 54% year-on-year, reaching 3.6 billion yuan, driven by stable GMV growth and the inclusion of marketing and value-added services [4] - The self-operated pharmaceutical business also grew by 10% year-on-year to 26.1 billion yuan, supported by an increase in active consumers and ARPU [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates that the AIDC business has a promising outlook, with the global power quality governance market expected to grow from 38.6 billion USD in 2024 to 56.3 billion USD by 2030 [8] - The demand for power quality governance is driven by sectors sensitive to power quality, such as semiconductor manufacturing and data centers, with the low-voltage power quality governance equipment market projected to grow significantly [8][9] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic power quality equipment market, benefiting from the construction boom in data centers [9] Group 3 - The report notes that Guangxin Co. experienced a 20.9% decline in revenue to 4.64 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to falling pesticide prices and increased competition [13] - The company’s pesticide segment revenue dropped by 17% year-on-year, while the intermediate products segment saw a 25% decline [13][14] - The report anticipates a recovery in pesticide demand, with projected revenues of 4.8 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [14][22] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential bankruptcy of Monsanto, which could benefit domestic glyphosate and glyphosate ammonium producers, as it holds a 32% global market share [17][18] - Glyphosate prices have stabilized, with a reported price of 23,200 yuan per ton, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [19][20] - The report suggests that the domestic glyphosate and glyphosate ammonium companies may see increased demand due to the competitive landscape shifting [22][23] Group 5 - The report indicates that Tongkun Co. achieved a revenue of 101.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 22.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.202 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.8% growth [26][28] - The company’s polyester filament sales increased, supported by limited new capacity in the industry and growing downstream demand [26][27] - Future revenue projections for Tongkun are set at 101.3 billion, 105.3 billion, and 111.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding net profit forecast of 2.233 billion, 3.129 billion, and 3.973 billion yuan [30]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Health reported a total revenue of 16.3 billion yuan for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, which exceeded the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 12.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 970 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, but fell short of the consensus estimate of 11.0% [1] - Future profit growth is expected to rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1] Revenue Breakdown - The self-operated business generated revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2HFY25, up 13.9% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1% [2] - The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business revenue was 1.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.6%, but below the consensus estimate of 57.7% [2] - The number of SKUs in the self-operated business increased by 33.6% year-on-year to 1.23 million [2] Business Development and Strategy - The integration of advertising business has enhanced the service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2] - Management indicated that the growth effect from Taobao's flash purchase exceeded expectations, suggesting a dual adaptation strategy for both remote and near-field models in the pharmaceutical health sector [2] Innovation and Future Guidance - The company reported stable growth in GMV for self-operated and platform businesses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] - Innovative businesses like "Code on Trust" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" have shown development, with "Code on Trust" covering a vast network of users and generating initial revenue [3] - The revenue growth target for FY26 is set at 5-10%, with adjusted net profit growth expected at 10-20% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-27 have been revised down by 8.8% and 8.4% to 2.3 billion yuan and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 2.9 billion yuan [3] - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x, reflecting a premium over the comparable company's average of 16.2x for 2026, considering the ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [3] - The target price is set at 5.43 HKD, up from a previous value of 4.4 HKD [3]

证券研究报告 阿里健康 (241 HK) 港股通 自营业务转向高质量发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 阿里健康 2HFY25 总收入 163 亿元，同比+16.0%，增速好于 Visible Alpha (VA，口径下同)一致预期的+12.6%，经调整净利润 9.7 亿元，同比增长 22.2%，逊于一致预期的 11.0 亿元。在广告业务注入带来的基数效应逐渐 消失后，我们预计阿里健康未来的盈利增速将主要依赖内生业务增速驱动。 后续建议关注：1）医药电商各品类需求修复情况及竞争格局演变；2）淘宝 即时零售战略进展及医药品类近场电商发展情况；3）阿里健康医疗 AI 技术 进展及商业化节奏。"买入"。 广告业务并入贡献坚实增量，淘宝闪购业务发展或带来近场电商领域机会 盈利预测与估值 我们调整 FY26-27 经调整归母净利润预测-8.8/-8.4%至 23/26 亿元，并引入 FY28 预测新值 29 亿元。我们给予公司 35x 目标非 IFRS PE，较可比公司 2026 年均值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. However, the adjusted net profit of RMB 970 million was below the expected RMB 1.1 billion, indicating that future profit growth will rely on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes [1][2]. - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with an adjusted net profit growth target of 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in core businesses while exploring new growth avenues in innovative sectors like medical AI [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 33.6 billion in FY26, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 17.6% [14][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 6.8% in FY26, up from previous estimates, indicating better operational efficiency [14][15]. Business Segments Performance - The self-operated business generated RMB 14 billion in revenue for 2HFY25, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 9.1%. The e-commerce platform business saw revenue of RMB 1.9 billion, growing 43.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% growth [2][3]. - The management highlighted that the integration of advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and competitiveness in the pharmaceutical e-commerce sector [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, which is a premium compared to the average of 16.2x for comparable companies, reflecting the company's ongoing market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 5.43 from a previous value of HKD 4.4, indicating a positive outlook based on the company's growth trajectory and market positioning [5][16].

Core Insights - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of 30.598 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.2% and a net profit of 1.432 billion yuan, up 62.2% [1][2] - The company's revenue structure is primarily driven by its pharmaceutical e-commerce business, with self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reaching 26.124 billion yuan, a 10.0% increase, while the e-commerce platform revenue surged by 54.0% to 3.588 billion yuan [1][3] - The healthcare and digital services segment saw a decline in revenue, dropping 7.6% to 0.885 billion yuan, attributed to the optimization of certain innovative businesses [3] Revenue Growth - The internet healthcare market in China reached a total market size of 376.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.34% [2] - Alibaba Health's revenue surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, and its net profit exceeded 1 billion yuan for the first time, achieving significant growth for three consecutive years [2] Competitive Landscape - The internet healthcare sector is experiencing intensified competition, with new entrants and evolving business models impacting traditional players like Alibaba Health [4][5] - The rise of instant retail channels is seen as a key driver for growth in the pharmaceutical retail sector, with predictions indicating a sales scale of 48.7 billion yuan for instant retail in 2024, a 31.3% increase from 2023 [5] - Alibaba Health's business primarily focuses on B2C and B2B, maintaining high levels of next-day delivery service while expanding its reach to 13 cities [5] Innovation and Technology - Alibaba Health is actively integrating new technologies, including AI, into its services, with initiatives like the launch of an AI-assisted traditional Chinese medicine diagnostic system [6][7] - The company has partnered with the China Anti-Cancer Association to enhance cancer prevention and treatment awareness through AI technology [7]